Areal Flood Warning 3, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1217 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL SITES WITH A
GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CONVECTION WILL THEN AGAIN BLOSSOM ACROSS NE OK/NW AR TOWARD
SUNRISE...AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO KFSM/KMLC SITES. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AS THE AFTERNOON STORMS PASS AND GUSTY W-NW WINDS
DEVELOP. LOW CLOUDS MAY SPREAD BACK SOUTHWARD TOMORROW EVENING
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
BUSY...BUSY...BUSY. ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER HAS
SHIFTED E INTO AR...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HAILERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES TONIGHT...EXPECT
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO
IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD...WITH ADDITIONAL TRAINING
OF STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  70  50  64 /  20  10  70  40
FSM   57  74  57  65 /  40  30  70  60
MLC   54  73  54  64 /  30  10  50  20
BVO   47  68  48  64 /  20  10  60  40
FYV   52  70  50  61 /  40  20  70  70
BYV   51  70  49  61 /  50  20  70  70
MKO   50  73  51  64 /  30  20  70  50
MIO   47  69  47  63 /  30  10  60  50
F10   51  70  51  63 /  30  20  60  30
HHW   59  81  54  67 /  40  20  50  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ074-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

AVIATION...07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
 	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
 	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
 	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
OR DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE
EVENING...WHERE CAP STRENGTH REMAINS MINIMIZED. ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS NEAR OR ON THE BOUNDARY COULD POSE A TORNADO THREAT...AT
LEAST INTO THE EARLY TO MID EVENING.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AROUND 4 TO 5
INCHES IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR TWO OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING AND PROLONGED
PERIODS OF AREAL AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL AREA
RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER BASIN...WILL REMAIN IN
FLOOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED. EMERGENCY
MANAGERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES SHOULD MONITOR ANY AREAS
THAT ARE PRONE TO FLOODING...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE
ACTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE FINALLY EXITING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH
BOTH ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCES FOR TORNADOES WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE GROUND HAS BECOME MORE SATURATED. FURTHER DETAILS
SEE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH /OKCFFATSA/ THAT HAS BEEN POSTED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY FLOODING RAINS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1042 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

OKZ072-074-250430-
HASKELL OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
1042 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SEQUOYAH

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN HASKELL

AT 1042 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF
KANIMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...COTTONWOOD...KEOTA...KANIMA...
TAMAHA...SALLISAW...GANS...MULDROW...ROLAND...MC KEY...VIAN...
BRUSHY...SHORT...MARBLE CITY...MOFFETT AND DORA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3537 9446 3534 9451 3533 9458 3534 9459
      3531 9466 3535 9471 3536 9478 3534 9481
      3528 9481 3521 9509 3539 9514 3540 9510
      3547 9507 3550 9510 3565 9477 3565 9454
      3551 9445 3540 9443
TIME...MOT...LOC 0342Z 247DEG 38KT 3536 9499

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1107 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1103 PM     HAIL             6 W SKIATOOK            36.37N 96.11W
04/24/2011  E0.75 INCH       OSAGE              OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1110 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     HAIL             SKIATOOK                36.37N 96.00W
04/24/2011  E1.75 INCH       TULSA              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

1109 PM     HAIL             SPERRY                  36.30N 95.99W
04/24/2011  E0.88 INCH       TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF TOWN ON HIGHWAY 11.

&&

KAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

OKZ056-057-250530-
CRAIG OK-NOWATA OK-
1154 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1230 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN CRAIG AND SOUTHEASTERN NOWATA

AT 1154 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF
NOWATA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...NOWATA...CENTRALIA...HOLLOW...
PYRAMID CORNERS AND CENTRAILIA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3679 9510 3664 9562 3669 9567 3700 9541
      3700 9530
TIME...MOT...LOC 0454Z 232DEG 40KT 3673 9555

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1225 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

OKZ057-061-062-250600-
CRAIG OK-MAYES OK-ROGERS OK-
1225 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN ROGERS...SOUTHWESTERN CRAIG AND NORTHWESTERN MAYES

AT 1225 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF FOYIL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...FOYIL...BUSHYHEAD...CHELSEA AND
ADAIR.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3642 9513 3633 9567 3639 9571 3660 9545
      3660 9543 3662 9543 3669 9535
TIME...MOT...LOC 0525Z 240DEG 42KT 3637 9563

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1234 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S OSAGE               36.17N 93.40W
04/25/2011                   CARROLL            AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            25 FEET OF WATER REPORTED OVER A BRIDGE ON ROAD 982.
            CARROLL COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE CANNOT GET CLOSE TO THE
            AREA.

&&

SFP