Areal Flood Advisory 13, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
601 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

LINE OF TRAINING CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL
SURFACE FROM MLC TO FYV. LINE HAS SLOWLY BEEN SAGGING
SOUTHWARD...BUT MLC/FYV/FSM SHOULD SEE HEAVY RAIN IN TS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF. NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY
OCCUR DURG THE TIME FRAME OF ABOUT 2315Z THROUGH 0030Z AT FSM.
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD BY TOMORROW...BRINGING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LIFTING CIGS TO THE TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011/

DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. A BROAD... CONTINUOUS
SWATH OF 3 TO 6 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS LIES FROM WESTERN CREEK AND
OKFUSKEE COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO NORTHERN BENTON AND
CARROLL COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE WEATHER REGIME THAT
HAS PRODUCED THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY... WITH THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. SOIL HAS BECOME SATURATED AND AS
RAINFALL TOTALS CONTINUE TO ADD UP... FLOODING ISSUES WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY... WHICH WILL GIVE THE PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT A PUSH TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER... UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESIDE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WITH THE INCREASED UPPER AND
LOWER LEVEL DYNAMICS... CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE GREATLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

TUESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE NEARLY CONTINUOUS
THUNDERSTORM AND RAINFALL ACTIVITY. HOWEVER... MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SWINGING ONE FINAL LOBE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. THIS LOBE
AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WILL QUICKLY GENERATE A SURFACE FRONT THAT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION... INTERACTING WITH THE REMAINING LOW
LEVEL  MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE STORMS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

LESS CLOUDINESS... WARMER TEMPERATURES... AND A MORE TRANQUIL
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ074-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

AVIATION...22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
 	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
 	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
 	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
OR DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE
EVENING...WHERE CAP STRENGTH REMAINS MINIMIZED. ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS NEAR OR ON THE BOUNDARY COULD POSE A TORNADO THREAT...AT
LEAST INTO THE EARLY TO MID EVENING.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AROUND 4 TO 5
INCHES IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR TWO OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING AND PROLONGED
PERIODS OF AREAL AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL AREA
RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER BASIN...WILL REMAIN IN
FLOOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED. EMERGENCY
MANAGERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES SHOULD MONITOR ANY AREAS
THAT ARE PRONE TO FLOODING...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE
ACTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE FINALLY EXITING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH
BOTH ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCES FOR TORNADOES WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE GROUND HAS BECOME MORE SATURATED. FURTHER DETAILS
SEE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH /OKCFFATSA/ THAT HAS BEEN POSTED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY FLOODING RAINS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
807 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GREEN FOREST            36.34N 93.44W
04/24/2011                   CARROLL            AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SWIFT WATER RESCUE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAYS 103
            AND 617

&&

MAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
809 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     FLASH FLOOD      EUREKA SPRINGS          36.40N 93.74W
04/24/2011                   CARROLL            AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SWIFT WATER RESCUE IN EUREKA SPRINGS

&&

MAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
814 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             COPAN                   36.90N 95.93W
04/24/2011  E0.88 INCH       WASHINGTON         OK   PUBLIC

&&

KAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
900 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

OKZ064>066-250230-
CREEK OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
900 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN OKMULGEE AND CREEK

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN OKFUSKEE

AT 901 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF
MILFAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OKFUSKEE...WELTY...BRISTOW...
MILFAY...SLICK AND DEPEW.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3607 9635 3563 9599 3553 9662 3554 9663
      3580 9663
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 234DEG 41KT 3566 9659

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
905 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             DEWEY                   36.80N 95.94W
04/24/2011  E0.88 INCH       WASHINGTON         OK   PUBLIC

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
906 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     TORNADO          7 SE POTEAU             34.98N 94.54W
04/24/2011                   LE FLORE           OK   PUBLIC

            SMALL ROPE TORNADO PRODUCED TREE DAMAGE NEAR MONROE

&&

MAT