Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Topeka, KS

256 
WWUS53 KTOP 220515
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1215 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

KSC059-220545-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-110522T0545Z/
FRANKLIN-
1215 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY...

AT 1210 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WALNUT SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF RANTOUL...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
OTTAWA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 189 AND 199.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. FOR YOUR SAFETY...TAKE COVER INSIDE A
BUILDING NOW.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 9506 3850 9506 3849 9521 3866 9523
      3872 9505 3870 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 0515Z 250DEG 22KT 3859 9513
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.50IN

$$

WOYNICK

277 
WWUS53 KTOP 220531
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1231 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

KSC059-220541-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-110522T0545Z/
FRANKLIN-
1231 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY
HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

AT 1231 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD EXITED THE AREA...
THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. STAY ALERT TO THE
WEATHER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 9506 3850 9506 3849 9521 3866 9523
      3872 9505 3870 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 0531Z 250DEG 22KT 3862 9501

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
310 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS
NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS DRY
LINE WEST OF PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS FROM NEAR SMITH
CENTER TO HAYS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE MODIFIED 12Z KTOP SOUNDING FOR THE 19Z
SURFACE OBSERVATION SUPPORTS CAPE NEAR 2200 J/KG WITH CIN NEAR -5
J/KG. A FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
FURTHER DAYTIME HEATING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 DEGREES
CELSIUS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. 0-6KM WIND SHEAR
IS PROGGED NEAR 30-40KT WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A SECONDARY THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS NEAR FORWARD PROPAGATING STORMS. TORNADO
THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN MINIMAL WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE
VEERING. STORM MOTION THIS AFTERNOON IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
NORTHEAST. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH...MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE HEAVIER
RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
THE NORTHEAST.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST AND WEST 850MB FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER AIRMASS INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 80S. MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.

ANGLE

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH OF THE FORECAST OVER THE
MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAMES IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT. A
SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN AND LEAD TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS ON
MONDAY. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE LOW POSITION WITH THE NAM
AND EC FAVORING A FURTHER NORTH POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT THAN THE
GFS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE NAM AND EC DUE THE NORTHERLY LOW TRACT
BEING MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY BEFORE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TAKES ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW
DEEPENING AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS
SOMETIME EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK DRY.

ANDERSON

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS HAVE RAISED TO VFR AT MHK/TOP/FOE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS. VISIBILITIES NEAR
2-3SM ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY NORTH
AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 02Z.

ANGLE

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1049 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-230400-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1049 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 1 AM...GENERALLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF AN EMPORIA TO OSKALOOSA LINE. TORNADOES... HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SEVERE STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EASTCENTRAL
KANSAS.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. SEE THE
LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING COULD OCCUR
DURING MUCH OF THESE PERIODS...ESPECIALLY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

SEVERAL RIVERS AND CREEKS WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD STAGE THROUGH
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED UNTIL 1 AM GENERALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1037 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1036 PM     TORNADO          2 W QUENEMO             38.58N 95.56W
05/21/2011                   OSAGE              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RELAYED BY OSAGE COUNTY EM

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1044 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1041 PM     TORNADO          5 WSW BALDWIN CITY      38.75N 95.27W
05/21/2011                   DOUGLAS            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RELAYED BY COUNTY EM NEAR THE 59 AND 56 JUNCTION

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1047 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1038 PM     HAIL             5 WSW BALDWIN CITY      38.75N 95.27W
05/21/2011  E1.75 INCH       DOUGLAS            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RELAYED BY EM AT THE CORNER OF HWY 56 AND HWY 59

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1049 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WSW BALDWIN CITY      38.75N 95.27W
05/21/2011                   DOUGLAS            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            60 MPH WIND GUST FROM STORM CHASER RELAYED BY EM.

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1102 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1052 PM     TORNADO          2 SSW POMONA            38.58N 95.47W
05/21/2011                   FRANKLIN           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RELAYED BY EMERGENCY MANAGER

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1116 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1114 PM     HAIL             3 S MELVERN             38.46N 95.63W
05/21/2011  E0.88 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRC