Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
310 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS
NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS DRY
LINE WEST OF PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS FROM NEAR SMITH
CENTER TO HAYS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE MODIFIED 12Z KTOP SOUNDING FOR THE 19Z
SURFACE OBSERVATION SUPPORTS CAPE NEAR 2200 J/KG WITH CIN NEAR -5
J/KG. A FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
FURTHER DAYTIME HEATING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 DEGREES
CELSIUS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. 0-6KM WIND SHEAR
IS PROGGED NEAR 30-40KT WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A SECONDARY THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS NEAR FORWARD PROPAGATING STORMS. TORNADO
THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN MINIMAL WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE
VEERING. STORM MOTION THIS AFTERNOON IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
NORTHEAST. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH...MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE HEAVIER
RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
THE NORTHEAST.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST AND WEST 850MB FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER AIRMASS INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 80S. MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.

ANGLE

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH OF THE FORECAST OVER THE
MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAMES IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT. A
SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN AND LEAD TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS ON
MONDAY. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE LOW POSITION WITH THE NAM
AND EC FAVORING A FURTHER NORTH POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT THAN THE
GFS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE NAM AND EC DUE THE NORTHERLY LOW TRACT
BEING MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY BEFORE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TAKES ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW
DEEPENING AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS
SOMETIME EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK DRY.

ANDERSON

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS HAVE RAISED TO VFR AT MHK/TOP/FOE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS. VISIBILITIES NEAR
2-3SM ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY NORTH
AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 02Z.

ANGLE

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
311 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-222015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
311 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 5 PM.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. SEE THE
LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING COULD OCCUR
DURING MUCH OF THESE PERIODS...ESPECIALLY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

SEVERAL RIVERS AND CREEKS WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD STAGE THROUGH
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
713 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     HAIL             4 NNW PERRY             39.13N 95.42W
05/21/2011  E2.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
716 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             2 SW OSKALOOSA          39.19N 95.35W
05/21/2011  E1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
721 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             4 S OZAWKIE             39.18N 95.47W
05/21/2011  E1.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
726 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     HAIL             1 NNE ST. MARYS         39.21N 96.06W
05/21/2011  E1.25 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
727 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TORNADO          4 NNW PERRY             39.13N 95.42W
05/21/2011                   JEFFERSON          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER SPOUT OVER LAKE PERRY

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
728 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             3 SE TOPEKA             39.02N 95.64W
05/21/2011  M2.50 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   PUBLIC

            *** 1 INJ *** HAIL BROKE CAR WINDOWS AT 6TH AND CROCO RD.
            ONE INJURY REPORTED FROM THE HAIL.

&&

SW