Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Topeka, KS

May 21, 2011Coffey County, Franklin County, Osage County, Kansas

NWS Topeka, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 21, 2011, 10:55 PM CDT for Coffey County, Franklin County, Osage County, Kansas. It was in force for 35 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 21, 2011, 10:55 PM CDT (03:55 UTC)
Expired: May 21, 2011, 11:30 PM CDT
In force: 35 min
Issued by: NWS Topeka, KS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.5 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Coffey County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Osage County, KS

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 21, 11:14 PM CDT	HAIL 0.88	3 S Melvern, KS

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 21, 3:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	9 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 3.9 hours before the alert went out and 244 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 804 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -63 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1618 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 137 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 202 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 6.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

348 
WUUS53 KTOP 220355
SVRTOP
KSC031-059-139-220430-
/O.NEW.KTOP.SV.W.0080.110522T0355Z-110522T0430Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1055 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN COFFEY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
  WEST CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHERN OSAGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1052 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WALNUT SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  MELVERN LAKE...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF OSAGE CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST
  AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  OLIVET...
  MELVERN...
  WILLIAMSBURG...
  QUENEMO...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 146 AND 171.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. FOR YOUR SAFETY...TAKE COVER INSIDE A
BUILDING NOW.

STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3868 9554 3842 9542 3839 9589 3846 9592
TIME...MOT...LOC 0355Z 241DEG 36KT 3848 9578
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.50IN

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 21, 3:10 PM CDT, 7 hours 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 21, 3:10 PM CDT, 7 hours 45 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
310 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS
NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS DRY
LINE WEST OF PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS FROM NEAR SMITH
CENTER TO HAYS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE MODIFIED 12Z KTOP SOUNDING FOR THE 19Z
SURFACE OBSERVATION SUPPORTS CAPE NEAR 2200 J/KG WITH CIN NEAR -5
J/KG. A FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
FURTHER DAYTIME HEATING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 DEGREES
CELSIUS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. 0-6KM WIND SHEAR
IS PROGGED NEAR 30-40KT WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A SECONDARY THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS NEAR FORWARD PROPAGATING STORMS. TORNADO
THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN MINIMAL WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE
VEERING. STORM MOTION THIS AFTERNOON IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
NORTHEAST. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH...MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE HEAVIER
RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
THE NORTHEAST.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST AND WEST 850MB FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER AIRMASS INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 80S. MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.

ANGLE

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH OF THE FORECAST OVER THE
MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAMES IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT. A
SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN AND LEAD TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS ON
MONDAY. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE LOW POSITION WITH THE NAM
AND EC FAVORING A FURTHER NORTH POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT THAN THE
GFS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE NAM AND EC DUE THE NORTHERLY LOW TRACT
BEING MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY BEFORE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TAKES ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW
DEEPENING AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS
SOMETIME EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK DRY.

ANDERSON

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS HAVE RAISED TO VFR AT MHK/TOP/FOE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS. VISIBILITIES NEAR
2-3SM ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY NORTH
AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 02Z.

ANGLE

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, May 21, 10:49 PM CDT, 6 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1049 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-230400-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1049 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 1 AM...GENERALLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF AN EMPORIA TO OSKALOOSA LINE. TORNADOES... HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SEVERE STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EASTCENTRAL
KANSAS.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. SEE THE
LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING COULD OCCUR
DURING MUCH OF THESE PERIODS...ESPECIALLY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

SEVERAL RIVERS AND CREEKS WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD STAGE THROUGH
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED UNTIL 1 AM GENERALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 21, 10:29 PM CDT, 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1029 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     HAIL             2 S OSAGE CITY          38.61N 95.83W
05/21/2011  E1.00 INCH       OSAGE              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

WOLTERS

Local storm report, May 21, 10:30 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1030 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1026 PM     HAIL             CENTROPOLIS             38.72N 95.35W
05/21/2011  E1.25 INCH       FRANKLIN           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRC

Local storm report, May 21, 10:37 PM CDT, 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1037 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1036 PM     TORNADO          2 W QUENEMO             38.58N 95.56W
05/21/2011                   OSAGE              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RELAYED BY OSAGE COUNTY EM

&&

WOLTERS

Local storm report, May 21, 10:44 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1044 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1041 PM     TORNADO          5 WSW BALDWIN CITY      38.75N 95.27W
05/21/2011                   DOUGLAS            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RELAYED BY COUNTY EM NEAR THE 59 AND 56 JUNCTION

&&

WOLTERS

Local storm report, May 21, 10:47 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1047 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1038 PM     HAIL             5 WSW BALDWIN CITY      38.75N 95.27W
05/21/2011  E1.75 INCH       DOUGLAS            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RELAYED BY EM AT THE CORNER OF HWY 56 AND HWY 59

&&

WOLTERS

Local storm report, May 21, 10:49 PM CDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1049 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WSW BALDWIN CITY      38.75N 95.27W
05/21/2011                   DOUGLAS            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            60 MPH WIND GUST FROM STORM CHASER RELAYED BY EM.

&&

WOLTERS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Topeka, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 21, 7:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Pottawatomie, Wabaunsee	14 min
May 21, 7:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Jackson, Jefferson	34 min
May 21, 7:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Jackson, Jefferson	32 min
May 21, 7:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Jackson, Shawnee	25 min
May 21, 7:41 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TOP	Jefferson	49 min
May 21, 7:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Brown, Jackson, Jefferson	49 min
May 21, 8:03 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Lyon	42 min
May 21, 8:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Lyon, Morris	55 min
May 21, 8:22 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	TOP	Ottawa, Saline	30 hr
May 21, 8:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Jackson, Jefferson	45 min
May 21, 8:34 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Shawnee	56 min
May 21, 8:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Jackson, Jefferson, Shawnee	33 min
May 21, 8:52 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TOP	Lyon	39 min
May 21, 9:08 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TOP	Osage	52 min
May 21, 9:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Jefferson	47 min
May 21, 9:23 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TOP	Osage	52 min
May 21, 9:34 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TOP	Jefferson	56 min
May 21, 9:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Lyon	32 min
May 21, 9:55 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TOP	Douglas, Franklin	65 min
May 21, 10:12 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TOP	Osage	48 min
May 21, 10:57 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TOP	Douglas, Franklin	63 min
May 21, 11:13 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TOP	Coffey, Franklin, Osage	47 min
May 21, 11:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Franklin	33 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.