Severe Thunderstorm Warning 179, NWS Topeka, KS

114 
WWUS53 KTOP 270736
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
236 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

KSC201-270746-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0179.000000T0000Z-110627T0800Z/
WASHINGTON-
236 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3984 9638 3985 9658 3987 9675 3999 9678
      4001 9667 4000 9639
TIME...MOT...LOC 0736Z 258DEG 39KT 3996 9665

$$

KSC117-270800-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0179.000000T0000Z-110627T0800Z/
MARSHALL-
236 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY...

AT 234 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF OKETO...OR 8 MILES
NORTH OF MARYSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OKETO AND BEATTIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE FOR LARGE HAIL AS WELL
AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3984 9638 3985 9658 3987 9675 3999 9678
      4001 9667 4000 9639
TIME...MOT...LOC 0736Z 258DEG 39KT 3996 9665
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

$$

BARJENBRUCH

622 
WWUS53 KTOP 270743
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
243 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

KSC117-270753-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0179.000000T0000Z-110627T0800Z/
MARSHALL-
243 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED...

AT 243 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO
LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. STAY ALERT TO THE
WEATHER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3984 9638 3985 9658 3987 9675 3999 9678
      4001 9667 4000 9639
TIME...MOT...LOC 0743Z 258DEG 39KT 3997 9655

$$

BARJENBRUCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1208 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT RANGE FORECAST (TODAY-MONDAY)...

COMPLICATED FORECAST ONGOING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE FORMATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
CHARACTERIZED BY A LARGE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND A FLATTENED
UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OVER WESTERN TEXAS WITH SSW 500 MB WINDS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
GRADUALLY CREPT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH. STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS HAVE AIDED IN ACCELERATING
THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT NORTHWARD. EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO
FINALLY SET UP NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 19Z AN AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD SHOWED UP
ALONG THE STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE RIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT. VISUAL
OBSERVATION OF THE CU FIELD NEAR THE WARM FRONT INDICATES THAT THE
CU FIELD HAS LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT WHICH INFERS THAT THE MID LEVELS
ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO MITIGATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 18Z RUC
SHOWS 700 MB TEMPS REACHING 15 C ALONG THE NS/NE BORDER WITH WARMER
TEMPS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THE GOING
THOUGHT IS THAT THE WARM MID LEVELS WILL KEEP CONVECTION FROM
OCCURRING...ESPECIALLY IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. NAM AND RUC ALSO SHOWING A SPLIT IN THE 300 MB JET
OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHICH GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SPLIT SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE
CHANCES FURTHER NORTH UNDER THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD THE
UPPER JET NOSE INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS THAT WOULD BE ONE MORE
MITIGATING FACTOR TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD
STORMS BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE MID LEVEL CAP AND UPPER CONVERGENCE
THEY WILL BE ABLE TO BECOME SEVERE VERY QUICKLY GIVEN THE
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY (APPROXIMATELY 5000 J/KG SBCAPE) AND 50 TO
60 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WITH SUPERCELLS BEING THE LIKELY
CONVECTIVE MODE. THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO A FOCUS OF
CONCERN SHOULD STORMS INITIATE AS THE BOUNDARY WILL AID IN LOW LEVEL
HELICITY AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO WITH ANY STRONG
STORM.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ONGOING IN NW NEBRASKA MERGES WITH ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH GETS GOING IN EASTERN NEBRASKA IT IS
EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO AN MCS WHICH LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD.
FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW THAT THE CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD MOVE SE INTO OUR NE COUNTIES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH THIS COMPLEX WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

FOR MONDAY THE MCS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS. DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY A SURFACE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS
TO THE WESTERN ZONES. DON'T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE MID
LEVEL TEMPS DON'T LOOK QUITE AS WARM. ELSEWHERE WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.

JL

LONG TERM...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH
RETURN FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED BY TUES NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDS AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. BY WEDS PM EXPECT EML TO CAP THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH HOT...HUMID AND MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED INTO THU AT LEAST. RIDGE
AXIS DOES SHIFT SE WITH TIME AS A UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. REMNANT FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE REGION WITH SOME
SMALL CHC FOR PRECIP BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

CO

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE
NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AND CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. DUE TO A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES NEAR 12-15Z. STRONG NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET NEAR
40-50 KNOTS BRINGS A CONCERN FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL
SUNRISE. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL RAISE
AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN NEAR 00Z WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS.

ANGLE

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
919 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-280230-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
919 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 10 PM INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN
NEBRASKA WILL PROPAGATE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. WHILE MOST
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS...A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS...WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...AND LINGER INTO MONDAY
EVENING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 35. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE STATE LINE
OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
102 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

KSZ039-270630-
SHAWNEE-
102 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SHAWNEE COUNTY...

THROUGH 130 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SHAWNEE COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE WILLARD...
ROSSVILLE...AUBURN...SILVER LAKE...PAULINE...BERRYTON AND TOPEKA.
MOTORISTS ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 169 AND 183
COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED. MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 347 AND 355 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3887 9594 3910 9595 3911 9597 3912 9601
      3913 9599 3914 9600 3912 9602 3912 9604
      3913 9604 3922 9590 3922 9560 3907 9560
      3894 9559
TIME...MOT...LOC 0602Z 245DEG 30KT 3903 9597

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
112 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 AM     HAIL             3 S ROSSVILLE           39.09N 95.94W
06/27/2011  E1.25 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
125 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

KSZ011-024-270700-
JACKSON-NEMAHA-
125 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEMAHA AND JACKSON
COUNTIES...

THROUGH 200 AM CDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
EAST AT 35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEMAHA AND JACKSON
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS
UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE
AFFECTED INCLUDE POTAWATOMI RESERVATION...CIRCLEVILLE...MAYETTA...
HOLTON...NETAWAKA...DENISON AND WHITING.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3965 9557 3930 9559 3921 9602 3956 9603
TIME...MOT...LOC 0625Z 258DEG 30KT 3932 9593

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
130 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 AM     HAIL             5 N PERRY               39.15N 95.39W
06/27/2011  E1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
133 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0132 AM     HAIL             4 S TOPEKA              38.99N 95.68W
06/27/2011  E1.00 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   PUBLIC

&&

BARJENBRUCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
150 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

KSZ026-039-270715-
JEFFERSON-SHAWNEE-
150 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SHAWNEE AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

THROUGH 215 AM CDT...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 35
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SHAWNEE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH
AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
MERIDEN...PERRY...OZAWKIE...WILLIAMSTOWN...VALLEY FALLS...
NORTONVILLE...WINCHESTER...OSKALOOSA AND MCLOUTH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

&&

LAT...LON 3912 9518 3904 9519 3905 9528 3903 9529
      3905 9539 3907 9544 3906 9548 3908 9572
      3922 9560 3922 9559 3942 9559 3943 9547
      3942 9517 3913 9517
TIME...MOT...LOC 0650Z 249DEG 29KT 3911 9561