Alert archive / Kansas / Special Weather Statements in 2011

Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

June 27, 2011Jefferson County, Kansas

NWS Topeka, KS issued this special weather statement at Jun 27, 2011, 1:50 AM CDT for Jefferson County, Kansas. It was in force for 25 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 27, 2011, 1:50 AM CDT (06:50 UTC)
Expired: Jun 27, 2011, 2:15 AM CDT
In force: 25 min
Issued by: NWS Topeka, KS

County Jefferson County, KS

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 6.8 hours before the alert went out and 29 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3777 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -96 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1305 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 104 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 307 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 2.0
Supercell composite: 17.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jun 27, 12:08 AM CDT, 1 hour 42 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 27, 12:08 AM CDT, 1 hour 42 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1208 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT RANGE FORECAST (TODAY-MONDAY)...

COMPLICATED FORECAST ONGOING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE FORMATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
CHARACTERIZED BY A LARGE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND A FLATTENED
UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OVER WESTERN TEXAS WITH SSW 500 MB WINDS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
GRADUALLY CREPT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH. STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS HAVE AIDED IN ACCELERATING
THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT NORTHWARD. EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO
FINALLY SET UP NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 19Z AN AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD SHOWED UP
ALONG THE STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE RIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT. VISUAL
OBSERVATION OF THE CU FIELD NEAR THE WARM FRONT INDICATES THAT THE
CU FIELD HAS LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT WHICH INFERS THAT THE MID LEVELS
ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO MITIGATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 18Z RUC
SHOWS 700 MB TEMPS REACHING 15 C ALONG THE NS/NE BORDER WITH WARMER
TEMPS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THE GOING
THOUGHT IS THAT THE WARM MID LEVELS WILL KEEP CONVECTION FROM
OCCURRING...ESPECIALLY IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. NAM AND RUC ALSO SHOWING A SPLIT IN THE 300 MB JET
OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHICH GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SPLIT SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE
CHANCES FURTHER NORTH UNDER THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD THE
UPPER JET NOSE INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS THAT WOULD BE ONE MORE
MITIGATING FACTOR TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD
STORMS BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE MID LEVEL CAP AND UPPER CONVERGENCE
THEY WILL BE ABLE TO BECOME SEVERE VERY QUICKLY GIVEN THE
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY (APPROXIMATELY 5000 J/KG SBCAPE) AND 50 TO
60 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WITH SUPERCELLS BEING THE LIKELY
CONVECTIVE MODE. THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO A FOCUS OF
CONCERN SHOULD STORMS INITIATE AS THE BOUNDARY WILL AID IN LOW LEVEL
HELICITY AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO WITH ANY STRONG
STORM.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ONGOING IN NW NEBRASKA MERGES WITH ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH GETS GOING IN EASTERN NEBRASKA IT IS
EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO AN MCS WHICH LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD.
FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW THAT THE CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD MOVE SE INTO OUR NE COUNTIES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH THIS COMPLEX WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

FOR MONDAY THE MCS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS. DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY A SURFACE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS
TO THE WESTERN ZONES. DON'T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE MID
LEVEL TEMPS DON'T LOOK QUITE AS WARM. ELSEWHERE WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.

JL

LONG TERM...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH
RETURN FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED BY TUES NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDS AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. BY WEDS PM EXPECT EML TO CAP THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH HOT...HUMID AND MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED INTO THU AT LEAST. RIDGE
AXIS DOES SHIFT SE WITH TIME AS A UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. REMNANT FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE REGION WITH SOME
SMALL CHC FOR PRECIP BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

CO

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE
NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AND CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. DUE TO A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES NEAR 12-15Z. STRONG NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET NEAR
40-50 KNOTS BRINGS A CONCERN FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL
SUNRISE. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL RAISE
AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN NEAR 00Z WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS.

ANGLE

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 26, 9:19 PM CDT, 4 hours 31 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
919 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-280230-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
919 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 10 PM INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN
NEBRASKA WILL PROPAGATE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. WHILE MOST
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS...A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS...WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...AND LINGER INTO MONDAY
EVENING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 35. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE STATE LINE
OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 27, 1:02 AM CDT, 48 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
102 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

KSZ039-270630-
SHAWNEE-
102 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SHAWNEE COUNTY...

THROUGH 130 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SHAWNEE COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE WILLARD...
ROSSVILLE...AUBURN...SILVER LAKE...PAULINE...BERRYTON AND TOPEKA.
MOTORISTS ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 169 AND 183
COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED. MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 347 AND 355 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3887 9594 3910 9595 3911 9597 3912 9601
      3913 9599 3914 9600 3912 9602 3912 9604
      3913 9604 3922 9590 3922 9560 3907 9560
      3894 9559
TIME...MOT...LOC 0602Z 245DEG 30KT 3903 9597

Local storm report, Jun 27, 1:12 AM CDT, 38 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
112 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 AM     HAIL             3 S ROSSVILLE           39.09N 95.94W
06/27/2011  E1.25 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special weather statement, Jun 27, 1:25 AM CDT, 25 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
125 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

KSZ011-024-270700-
JACKSON-NEMAHA-
125 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEMAHA AND JACKSON
COUNTIES...

THROUGH 200 AM CDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
EAST AT 35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEMAHA AND JACKSON
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS
UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE
AFFECTED INCLUDE POTAWATOMI RESERVATION...CIRCLEVILLE...MAYETTA...
HOLTON...NETAWAKA...DENISON AND WHITING.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3965 9557 3930 9559 3921 9602 3956 9603
TIME...MOT...LOC 0625Z 258DEG 30KT 3932 9593

Local storm report, Jun 27, 1:30 AM CDT, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
130 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 AM     HAIL             5 N PERRY               39.15N 95.39W
06/27/2011  E1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

Local storm report, Jun 27, 1:33 AM CDT, 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
133 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0132 AM     HAIL             4 S TOPEKA              38.99N 95.68W
06/27/2011  E1.00 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   PUBLIC

&&

BARJENBRUCH

Special weather statement, Jun 27, 1:50 AM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
150 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

KSZ026-039-270715-
JEFFERSON-SHAWNEE-
150 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SHAWNEE AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

THROUGH 215 AM CDT...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 35
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SHAWNEE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH
AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
MERIDEN...PERRY...OZAWKIE...WILLIAMSTOWN...VALLEY FALLS...
NORTONVILLE...WINCHESTER...OSKALOOSA AND MCLOUTH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

&&

LAT...LON 3912 9518 3904 9519 3905 9528 3903 9529
      3905 9539 3907 9544 3906 9548 3908 9572
      3922 9560 3922 9559 3942 9559 3943 9547
      3942 9517 3913 9517
TIME...MOT...LOC 0650Z 249DEG 29KT 3911 9561

The office that day

Everything else NWS Topeka, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 26, 10:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Brown, Nemaha	53 min
Jun 26, 11:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Brown	24 min
Jun 27, 12:28 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Pottawatomie	32 min
Jun 27, 12:40 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Jackson, Pottawatomie, Wabaunsee	50 min
Jun 27, 1:02 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Shawnee	28 min
Jun 27, 1:07 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Shawnee	38 min
Jun 27, 1:17 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Shawnee	28 min
Jun 27, 1:22 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Jefferson	26 min
Jun 27, 1:25 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Jackson	35 min
Jun 27, 1:39 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Douglas	27 min
Jun 27, 2:26 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Marshall, Washington	17 min
Jun 27, 3:33 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Brown, Nemaha	27 min
Jun 27, 4:09 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TOP	Marshall, Nemaha	66 min
Jun 27, 4:16 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Jackson, Jefferson, Shawnee, Wabaunsee	29 min
Jun 27, 4:39 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TOP	Brown	66 min
Jun 27, 4:44 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Douglas, Jefferson, Osage, Shawnee, Wabaunsee	46 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Kansas, 2011 Every special weather statement in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.