Alert archive / North Carolina / Tornado Watches in 2011
Tornado Watch 891
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 16, 2011, 4:30 PM EST for 12 counties in Georgia; 47 counties in North Carolina; 30 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 16, 2011, 4:30 PM EST (21:30 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 16, 2011, 11:47 PM EST
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 89 counties
Bryan County, GA, Bulloch County, GA, Candler County, GA, Chatham County, GA, Effingham County, GA, Evans County, GA, Jenkins County, GA, Liberty County, GA, Long County, GA, McIntosh County, GA, Screven County, GA, Tattnall County, GA, Alamance County, NC, Anson County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Orange County, NC, Pender County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Union County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Allendale County, SC, Bamberg County, SC, Beaufort County, SC, Berkeley County, SC, Calhoun County, SC, Charleston County, SC, Chester County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Clarendon County, SC, Colleton County, SC, Darlington County, SC, Dillon County, SC, Dorchester County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Florence County, SC, Georgetown County, SC, Hampton County, SC, Horry County, SC, Jasper County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Lee County, SC, Lexington County, SC, Marion County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, Orangeburg County, SC, Richland County, SC, Sumter County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC, York County, SC
The radar
The Columbia radar (KCAE), 32 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 50%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 30%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 40%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 30%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 10%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 70%
Warnings issued inside it
21 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 5:05 PM EST | Tornado Warning | GSP | Chester, Union, York | 40 min |
| Nov 16, 5:09 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Cabarrus, Iredell, Lincoln, Mecklenburg, Rowan | 66 min |
| Nov 16, 5:20 PM EST | Tornado Warning | GSP | Iredell, Rowan | 40 min |
| Nov 16, 5:36 PM EST | Tornado Warning | RAH | Davidson | 39 min |
| Nov 16, 5:36 PM EST | Tornado Warning | CAE | Lancaster | 33 min |
| Nov 16, 5:39 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CHS | Bulloch, Jenkins, Screven | 66 min |
| Nov 16, 6:08 PM EST | Tornado Warning | RAH | Davidson, Randolph | 37 min |
| Nov 16, 6:09 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CHS | Screven | 66 min |
| Nov 16, 6:21 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CHS | Bulloch, Screven | 54 min |
| Nov 16, 6:32 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CAE | Bamberg, Barnwell, Calhoun, Lexington, Orangeburg | 58 min |
| Nov 16, 7:01 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CHS | Allendale, Colleton, Hampton | 35 min |
| Nov 16, 7:28 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CHS | Bulloch, Candler, Evans, Tattnall | 49 min |
| Nov 16, 7:52 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CHS | Bryan, Bulloch, Candler, Evans, Tattnall | 38 min |
| Nov 16, 8:09 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CHS | Bulloch, Effingham, Screven | 36 min |
| Nov 16, 8:26 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CHS | Effingham, Screven | 64 min |
| Nov 16, 8:27 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILM | Florence, Georgetown, Horry, Marion, Williamsburg | 63 min |
| Nov 16, 8:45 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILM | Bladen, Brunswick, Columbus, Robeson | 60 min |
| Nov 16, 8:58 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CHS | Beaufort, Colleton, Hampton, Jasper | 43 min |
| Nov 16, 9:06 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILM | Brunswick, Columbus | 35 min |
| Nov 16, 9:48 PM EST | Tornado Warning | RAH | Halifax, Warren | 42 min |
| Nov 16, 10:32 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILM | Georgetown | 28 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Charleston AFB, SC (KCHS), launched 12:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 128 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 347 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -68 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 485 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 45 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 127 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 137 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.4
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
967
WWUS20 KWNS 162132
SEL1
SPC WW 162132
GAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-170500-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 891
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR EASTERN GEORGIA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 430 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
SAVANNAH GEORGIA TO 20 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF GREENSBORO NORTH
CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 889...WW 890...
DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF SUPERCELLS FROM UPSTATE SC INTO ERN GA ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM
EMERGING FROM THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS. THE LOW-LEVEL MASS
RESPONSE TO THIS MIDLEVEL IMPULSE WILL RESULT IN A 50+ KT SWLY LLJ
BEING FOCUSED ACROSS THE REGION...ENHANCING ALREADY STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR. GIVEN THE MOIST...UNSTABLE AND LCL WARM SECTOR AIR
MASS...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WITH
ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...MEADSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 8:25 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carroll, Clayton, Coweta, Douglas, Fayette, Haralson and 7 more | 95 min |
| Nov 16, 10:46 AM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bartow, Carroll, Catoosa, Chattahoochee, Chattooga, Cherokee and 38 more | 7 hr |
| Nov 16, 10:59 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bartow, Carroll, Catoosa, Chattahoochee, Chattooga, Cherokee and 35 more | 91 min |
| Nov 16, 1:17 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Appling, Atkinson, Bacon, Baker, Baldwin, Banks and 110 more | 118 min |
| Nov 16, 1:35 PM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Baker, Baldwin, Banks, Barrow, Ben Hill, Berrien and 83 more | 7 hr |
| Nov 16, 4:06 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Appling, Bacon, Bryan, Bulloch, Burke, Candler and 11 more | 114 min |
| Nov 16, 5:35 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Appling, Atkinson, Bacon, Berrien, Brantley, Brooks and 16 more | 85 min |
| Nov 16, 6:48 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chatham, Effingham, Screven | 87 min |
| Nov 16, 4:45 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaufort, Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Dare and 11 more | 90 min |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in North Carolina, 2011Tornado Watches in South Carolina, 2011Tornado Watches in Georgia, 2011Every tornado watch in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.