Alert archive / North Carolina / Tornado Watches in 2011

Tornado Watch 891

November 16, 201112 counties in Georgia; 47 counties in North Carolina; 30 counties in South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 16, 2011, 4:30 PM EST for 12 counties in Georgia; 47 counties in North Carolina; 30 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 16, 2011, 4:30 PM EST (21:30 UTC)
Expired
Nov 16, 2011, 11:47 PM EST
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 89 counties

Bryan County, GA, Bulloch County, GA, Candler County, GA, Chatham County, GA, Effingham County, GA, Evans County, GA, Jenkins County, GA, Liberty County, GA, Long County, GA, McIntosh County, GA, Screven County, GA, Tattnall County, GA, Alamance County, NC, Anson County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Orange County, NC, Pender County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Union County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Allendale County, SC, Bamberg County, SC, Beaufort County, SC, Berkeley County, SC, Calhoun County, SC, Charleston County, SC, Chester County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Clarendon County, SC, Colleton County, SC, Darlington County, SC, Dillon County, SC, Dorchester County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Florence County, SC, Georgetown County, SC, Hampton County, SC, Horry County, SC, Jasper County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Lee County, SC, Lexington County, SC, Marion County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, Orangeburg County, SC, Richland County, SC, Sumter County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC, York County, SC

The radar

The Columbia radar (KCAE), 32 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
30%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
10%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

21 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 16, 5:05 PM ESTTornado WarningGSPChester, Union, York40 min
Nov 16, 5:09 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPCabarrus, Iredell, Lincoln, Mecklenburg, Rowan66 min
Nov 16, 5:20 PM ESTTornado WarningGSPIredell, Rowan40 min
Nov 16, 5:36 PM ESTTornado WarningRAHDavidson39 min
Nov 16, 5:36 PM ESTTornado WarningCAELancaster33 min
Nov 16, 5:39 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCHSBulloch, Jenkins, Screven66 min
Nov 16, 6:08 PM ESTTornado WarningRAHDavidson, Randolph37 min
Nov 16, 6:09 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCHSScreven66 min
Nov 16, 6:21 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCHSBulloch, Screven54 min
Nov 16, 6:32 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCAEBamberg, Barnwell, Calhoun, Lexington, Orangeburg58 min
Nov 16, 7:01 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCHSAllendale, Colleton, Hampton35 min
Nov 16, 7:28 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCHSBulloch, Candler, Evans, Tattnall49 min
Nov 16, 7:52 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCHSBryan, Bulloch, Candler, Evans, Tattnall38 min
Nov 16, 8:09 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCHSBulloch, Effingham, Screven36 min
Nov 16, 8:26 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCHSEffingham, Screven64 min
Nov 16, 8:27 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILMFlorence, Georgetown, Horry, Marion, Williamsburg63 min
Nov 16, 8:45 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILMBladen, Brunswick, Columbus, Robeson60 min
Nov 16, 8:58 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCHSBeaufort, Colleton, Hampton, Jasper43 min
Nov 16, 9:06 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILMBrunswick, Columbus35 min
Nov 16, 9:48 PM ESTTornado WarningRAHHalifax, Warren42 min
Nov 16, 10:32 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILMGeorgetown28 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Charleston AFB, SC (KCHS), launched 12:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 128 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Charleston AFB, SC at 12:00Z on 2011-11-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 347 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Charleston AFB, SC at 12:00Z on 2011-11-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 127 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
347 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-68 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
485 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
127 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
137 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

967 
WWUS20 KWNS 162132
SEL1
SPC WW 162132
GAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-170500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 891
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       FAR EASTERN GEORGIA
       WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
       CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 430 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
SAVANNAH GEORGIA TO 20 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF GREENSBORO NORTH
CAROLINA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 889...WW 890...

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF SUPERCELLS FROM UPSTATE SC INTO ERN GA ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM
EMERGING FROM THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS.  THE LOW-LEVEL MASS
RESPONSE TO THIS MIDLEVEL IMPULSE WILL RESULT IN A 50+ KT SWLY LLJ
BEING FOCUSED ACROSS THE REGION...ENHANCING ALREADY STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR.  GIVEN THE MOIST...UNSTABLE AND LCL WARM SECTOR AIR
MASS...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WITH
ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.


...MEAD

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 16, 8:25 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarroll, Clayton, Coweta, Douglas, Fayette, Haralson and 7 more95 min
Nov 16, 10:46 AM ESTTornado WatchSPCBartow, Carroll, Catoosa, Chattahoochee, Chattooga, Cherokee and 38 more7 hr
Nov 16, 10:59 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBartow, Carroll, Catoosa, Chattahoochee, Chattooga, Cherokee and 35 more91 min
Nov 16, 1:17 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppling, Atkinson, Bacon, Baker, Baldwin, Banks and 110 more118 min
Nov 16, 1:35 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCBaker, Baldwin, Banks, Barrow, Ben Hill, Berrien and 83 more7 hr
Nov 16, 4:06 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppling, Bacon, Bryan, Bulloch, Burke, Candler and 11 more114 min
Nov 16, 5:35 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppling, Atkinson, Bacon, Berrien, Brantley, Brooks and 16 more85 min
Nov 16, 6:48 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChatham, Effingham, Screven87 min
Nov 16, 4:45 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaufort, Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Dare and 11 more90 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in North Carolina, 2011Tornado Watches in South Carolina, 2011Tornado Watches in Georgia, 2011Every tornado watch in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.