Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486

Issued

Jun 16, 2011, 3:53 PM CDT (20:53 UTC)

Expired

Jun 16, 2011, 10:00 PM CDT

In force

6 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

2 in

Strongest gust expected

60 kt

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 101 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

20%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

5%

Ten or more severe wind reports

40%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

40%

Ten or more severe hail reports

30%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

40%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

90%

• Mesoscale Discussion 1248Jun 16, 3:37 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1253Jun 16, 6:18 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1257Jun 16, 9:13 PM CDT

414 
WWUS20 KWNS 162054
SEL6
SPC WW 162054
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-170300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 486
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       SOUTHWEST KANSAS
       WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
       THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY KANSAS TO 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLINTON
OKLAHOMA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 483...WW 484...WW 485...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE
BY ROUGHLY 22Z FROM SW KS INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...WHERE STRONG
SURFACE HEATING AND AN APPROACHING MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO WEAKENING THE CAP.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE PRESENT E OF THE DRYLINE WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.  OTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
DRYLINE IN SW KS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26020.


...THOMPSON

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Oklahoma, 2011Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Kansas, 2011Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Texas, 2011Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.