Severe Thunderstorm Warning 363, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
630 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

.AVIATION...
SCT TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR THE TX BORDER. THESE
STORMS MAY MOVE INTO WRN SITES WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE
VALID TIME AND WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR THOSE SITES. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM STORMS EARLIER TODAY EXTENDS FROM CNTRL OK INTO SW KS.
NOT MUCH ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER STORMS
OVER SW/SCNTRL KS MAY CONGEAL INTO A COMPLEX LATER THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO NRN OK LATER TONIGHT AND WILL INCLUDE
AT KPNC. OTRW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH STRONG S/SE
WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011/

.DISCUSSION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CHEROKEE...TO ENID...TO NEAR CHANDLER
WILL DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY TO ALVA...KINGFISHER...AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
CITY...IF NOT A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS NOW LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WHICH IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AND BEGINNING TO WEAKEN.
MEANWHILE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY ALONG THE
DRYLINE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE PANHANDLE STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST- NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND
POSSIBLY WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. STORMS IN THE NORTH PART OF THAT
AREA MAY INTERACT WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATER THIS
EVENING...WHICH WOULD SERVE TO SUSTAIN THEM WELL PAST SUNSET. WE
WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH AS A RESULT.

EXPECTATIONS BEYOND TONIGHT REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...SO THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS LIKEWISE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.
EXPECT DAILY SCATTERED STORMS NEAR THE DRYLINE...UNTIL A MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A HIGHER CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  97  75  99 /  20  10  20  20
HOBART OK         74 105  75 105 /  30  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  76 105  77 105 /  20  10  20  20
GAGE OK           68 105  68 106 /  40   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     73  97  76  98 /  40  10  20  10
DURANT OK         76  94  75  93 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-010-
     014>017-021>023-033>036.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-014-
     021-033-034-036-037.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-
     088.

&&

02/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-171000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1153 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS NEAR AND WEST AND NORTH OF A
LINE EXTENDING FROM BENJAMIN AND VERNON TEXAS... TO NEAR LAWTON AND
CHICKASHA... TO NEAR HOLDENVILLE.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM 3 PM THROUGH
2 AM.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND HAIL THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS
OR SLIGHTLY LARGER.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL ACROSS THE RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS NEAR A DRYLINE.
THESE STORMS WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND ALSO VERY LARGE HAIL. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL
LIKELY MOVE TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

A WARM FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP...
A FEW MAY ALSO BECOME SEVERE... PRODUCING STRONG WINDS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY JUN 17.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...60 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY HIGH OR EXTREME IN AREAS WHERE VERY
DRY OR PARTIALLY DORMANT VEGETATION EXISTS DUE TO THE DROUGHT. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A DIFFUSE DRYLINE...EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...MAY BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF ANY STORM CAN
DEVELOP...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT AND UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE
STORMS NEXT WEEK WILL BE SEVERE.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
WILDFIRES WILL REMAIN A CONCERN AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS
AREAS HARDEST HIT BY LONG TERM DROUGHT...PRIMARILY OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM
FRIDAY.

MAXWELL

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