Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 983

May 26, 201155 counties in Kentucky; 25 counties in Ohio; 7 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 26, 2011, 2:09 PM CDT for 55 counties in Kentucky; 25 counties in Ohio; 7 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 96 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 26, 2011, 2:09 PM CDT (19:09 UTC)
Expired
May 26, 2011, 3:45 PM CDT
In force
96 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 87 counties

Adair County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Bath County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carter County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grant County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lee County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, Mason County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Owen County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Russell County, KY, Scott County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Washington County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Woodford County, KY, Adams County, OH, Brown County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Greene County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Highland County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Licking County, OH, Madison County, OH, Perry County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Pike County, OH, Ross County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Union County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Warren County, OH, Clay County, TN, Fentress County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Overton County, TN, Pickett County, TN, Scott County, TN, Smith County, TN

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 103 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 120 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2011-05-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2011-05-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 202 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-11 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
645 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
202 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
240 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

060 
ACUS11 KWNS 261910
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261909
OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-262045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0983
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OH...CNTRL/ERN KY...MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261909Z - 262045Z

BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SWRN OH TO NRN MIDDLE TN
MAY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL. THE PROBABILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
ISSUANCE BY 21Z IS 40 PERCENT.

A GRADUAL INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY/LIGHTNING TRENDS HAS BEEN NOTED
DURING THE PAST HOUR WITH A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS THAT STRETCHED
ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM GREENE COUNTY OH TO MACON COUNTY TN AS OF
19Z. DOWNSTREAM HEATING HAS BEEN RETARDED BY LARGELY BROKEN CLOUD
COVERAGE...RESULTING IN ONLY A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE
AOB 1000 J/KG. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER IL/IND...A NARROW-BANDED
QLCS ALONG THE FRONT MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE E/NEWD. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE WRN FRINGE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
S/SWLYS...WHICH ARE ALSO NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SERVE TO LIMIT A MORE ROBUST WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

..GRAMS.. 05/26/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36128487 36238610 36448605 37598532 39958419 40258369
            40408302 40318243 40148212 39908215 38698257 36518425
            36128487

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 25, 7:14 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Bourbon, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Fleming and 15 more2 hr
May 25, 7:40 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBreckinridge, Butler, Caldwell, Calloway, Christian, Crittenden and 25 more2 hr
May 25, 8:33 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Boone, Bourbon and 65 more7 hr
May 26, 12:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLetcher, Pike90 min
May 26, 3:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCPike60 min
May 25, 11:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMercer, Van Wert2 hr
May 26, 1:37 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshland, Ashtabula, Carroll, Columbiana, Coshocton, Crawford and 27 more83 min
May 26, 5:06 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAshtabula, Belmont, Carroll, Columbiana, Coshocton, Cuyahoga and 17 more6 hr
May 25, 7:22 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Carroll, Chester, Crockett, Decatur, Dyer and 18 more53 min
May 26, 7:56 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBledsoe, Bradley, Franklin, Grundy, Hamilton, Lincoln and 8 more94 min
May 26, 9:15 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnderson, Bledsoe, Blount, Bradley, Campbell, Carter and 30 more9 hr
May 26, 12:22 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBradley, Hamilton, McMinn, Marion, Meigs, Monroe and 1 more83 min
May 26, 2:32 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarter, Cocke, Greene, Hamblen, Jefferson, Sevier and 3 more58 min
May 26, 3:36 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarter, Cocke, Greene, Hawkins, Johnson, Sullivan and 2 more84 min
May 26, 4:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnderson, Bledsoe, Blount, Bradley, Campbell, Carter and 27 more7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.