Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 744

May 11, 201115 counties in Kansas; 4 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 11, 2011, 6:02 PM CDT for 15 counties in Kansas; 4 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 88 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 11, 2011, 6:02 PM CDT (23:02 UTC)
Expired
May 11, 2011, 7:30 PM CDT
In force
88 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Barber County, KS, Barton County, KS, Clark County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Ford County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Meade County, KS, Ness County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Rush County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Ellis County, OK, Harper County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 67 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2011-05-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1424 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2011-05-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -176 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1424 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-242 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1169 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-176 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-285 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

407 
ACUS11 KWNS 112303
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112302
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-120030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0602 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS AND EASTERN OK PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 112302Z - 120030Z

ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KS AND THE EASTERN OK
PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST OK.

ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS CANOPY...VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTS A DEEPENING CU FIELD IN VICINITY OF THE
DRYLINE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS/EASTERN OK PANHANDLE...WITH INCIPIENT
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALREADY OCCURRING NEAR DODGE CITY AS OF 2245Z. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ALSO ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH THE UPPER DRY SLOT...WITH A
PORTION OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW/ASSOCIATED DPVA EXPECTED TO PIVOT
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...THE AIRMASS NEAR/EAST OF THE DRYLINE HAS NOT
APPRECIABLY DESTABILIZED LARGELY OWING TO EARLY DAY CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE VERY STEEP /REFERENCE DRY SLOT/ AND
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IS REFLECTING AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
IN CONJUNCTION WITH 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
SHOULD DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE TO OCCUR WITHIN THIS
HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL...AND A BRIEF TORNADO MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

..GUYER.. 05/11/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON   35739942 35740002 36640032 38350048 38870013 39039920
            38479847 36479860 35739942

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 11, 7:30 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMeade, Seward, Stevens60 min
May 11, 11:21 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Chase, Clay, Cloud, Coffey, Dickinson and 22 more84 min
May 11, 12:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllen, Anderson, Brown, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 48 more5 hr
May 11, 1:51 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Comanche, Edwards, Finney, Ford, Gove and 25 more84 min
May 11, 3:57 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Brown, Cherokee and 25 more48 min
May 11, 4:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Brown, Chautauqua and 24 more8 hr
May 11, 4:52 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Graham, Logan, Norton and 7 more6 hr
May 11, 6:35 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCherokee, Labette55 min
May 11, 2:28 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCTexas92 min
May 11, 12:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Coal, Creek, Haskell, Hughes, Johnston and 19 more87 min
May 11, 1:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Atoka, Bryan, Caddo, Canadian, Carter and 53 more8 hr
May 11, 2:51 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMcCurtain84 min
May 11, 3:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCMcCurtain8 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.