Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 735

May 11, 20115 counties in Colorado; 31 counties in Kansas; Beaver County, Harper County, Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 11, 2011, 12:51 PM MDT for 5 counties in Colorado; 31 counties in Kansas; Beaver County, Harper County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 84 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 11, 2011, 12:51 PM MDT (18:51 UTC)
Expired: May 11, 2011, 2:15 PM MDT
In force: 84 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 38 counties

Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Cheyenne County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Clark County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Gove County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Lane County, KS, Logan County, KS, Meade County, KS, Morton County, KS, Ness County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Rush County, KS, Scott County, KS, Seward County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Trego County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Beaver County, OK, Harper County, OK

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 118 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Tornado Watch 285May 11, 3:50 PM MDT

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 124 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1424 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -242 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1169 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -176 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -285 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

721 
ACUS11 KWNS 111852
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111851
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-112015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0735
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...WRN KS...FAR NWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111851Z - 112015Z

THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z.

SFC ANALYSIS AT 18Z DEPICTS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NWRN KS INTO
SERN CO EXTENDING TO A SFC LOW 45 S LHX. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH
FROM THE LOW INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE
INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT AT A TRIPLE POINT 20 E LHX EXTENDING SEWD
TO 45 ESE GUY AND FARTHER SSE ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. THE AIR
MASS BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT AND DRYLINE CONTINUES TO RECOVER IN THE
WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IS
ERODING IN MANY AREAS YIELDING FULL INSOLATION. THIS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S E/NE OF THE DRYLINE. WITHIN
THIS AREA...MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES /DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES/ HAS ALLOWED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE TO AOA 500 J/KG. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER SWRN KS AND SERN CO AS A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
SWINGING THROUGH THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
IMPACTS THE AREA. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AOA 50 KT WILL
YIELD A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DMGG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY BACKED INVOF THE WARM FRONT
AND TRIPLE POINT. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES COULD ALSO EVOLVE BETWEEN
THE TRIPLE POINT AND SFC LOW...WHERE THE JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG
LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AND BUOYANCY WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR
COLD CORE TORNADOGENESIS.

..COHEN.. 05/11/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   38239896 37409878 36979881 36759919 36649969 36640045
            36890144 37140189 37340271 37290365 37630367 37960351
            38290352 38510345 38880314 39180258 39500190 39630103
            39550025 39089941 38239896

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 11, 3:52 PM MDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Cheyenne, Kit Carson, Lincoln, Washington, Yuma	6 hr
May 11, 6:30 AM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Meade, Seward, Stevens	60 min
May 11, 10:21 AM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Butler, Chase, Clay, Cloud, Coffey, Dickinson and 22 more	84 min
May 11, 11:16 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Allen, Anderson, Brown, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 48 more	5 hr
May 11, 2:57 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Brown, Cherokee and 25 more	48 min
May 11, 3:00 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Allen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Brown, Chautauqua and 24 more	8 hr
May 11, 5:02 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barber, Barton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ellis and 9 more	88 min
May 11, 5:35 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cherokee, Labette	55 min
May 11, 1:28 AM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Texas	92 min
May 11, 11:33 AM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atoka, Coal, Creek, Haskell, Hughes, Johnston and 19 more	87 min
May 11, 12:16 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Adair, Atoka, Bryan, Caddo, Canadian, Carter and 53 more	8 hr
May 11, 1:51 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	McCurtain	84 min
May 11, 2:46 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	McCurtain	8 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2011 Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2011 Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2011 Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.