Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011
Mesoscale Discussion 397
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 10, 2011, 5:51 PM EDT for 13 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 84 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 10, 2011, 5:51 PM EDT (21:51 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 10, 2011, 7:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 84 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI
The radar
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 224 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 755 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 77 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 213 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 335 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.4
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
164
ACUS11 KWNS 102151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102151
MIZ000-102315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0397
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LWR MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 102151Z - 102315Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THAT
COULD REQUIRE A WW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED WITHIN A ZONE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION NOW SPREADING
ACROSS UPPER LAKE MICHIGAN...TOWARD THE SURFACE WARM FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
INHIBITION REMAINS CONSIDERABLE FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED PARCELS
ALONG THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...AUGMENTATION OF STORMS/STORM
DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE QUESTION...AS APPROACHING
FORCING INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
GIVEN VERY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES...SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR
TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE BY 23-00Z.
..KERR.. 04/10/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
LAT...LON 45098609 45358516 44878377 44148336 43858414 44168512
44378623 44558655 45098609SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 4:19 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Gogebic, Iron, Ontonagon | 7 hr |
| Apr 10, 6:20 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Alcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Benzie, Charlevoix and 17 more | 7 hr |
| Apr 10, 7:02 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alger, Baraga, Delta, Dickinson, Gogebic, Houghton and 6 more | 88 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.