Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 255

March 23, 20115 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 23, 2011, 12:02 PM EDT for 5 states. It was in force for 88 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 23, 2011, 12:02 PM EDT (16:02 UTC)
Expired
Mar 23, 2011, 1:30 PM EDT
In force
88 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 191 counties

Bartholomew County, IN, Brown County, IN, Clark County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Dearborn County, IN, Decatur County, IN, Dubois County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Hancock County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Henry County, IN, Jackson County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Jennings County, IN, Johnson County, IN, Lawrence County, IN, Monroe County, IN, Ohio County, IN, Orange County, IN, Perry County, IN, Randolph County, IN, Ripley County, IN, Rush County, IN, Scott County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Union County, IN, Washington County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Adair County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Bath County, KY, Boone County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyd County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Carter County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clay County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grant County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Hart County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Knott County, KY, Larue County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Madison County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Marion County, KY, Martin County, KY, Mason County, KY, Meade County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Owen County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Russell County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Washington County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Woodford County, KY, Adams County, OH, Athens County, OH, Belmont County, OH, Brown County, OH, Butler County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Coshocton County, OH, Darke County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Gallia County, OH, Greene County, OH, Guernsey County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Highland County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Knox County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Licking County, OH, Logan County, OH, Madison County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Miami County, OH, Monroe County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Muskingum County, OH, Noble County, OH, Perry County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Pike County, OH, Preble County, OH, Ross County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Union County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Warren County, OH, Washington County, OH, Buchanan County, VA, Dickenson County, VA, Boone County, WV, Braxton County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Clay County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Fayette County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Harrison County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Logan County, WV, Marshall County, WV, Mason County, WV, McDowell County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Nicholas County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Raleigh County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Roane County, WV, Summers County, WV, Tyler County, WV, Wayne County, WV, Webster County, WV, Wetzel County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV, Wyoming County, WV

The radar

The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 4.0 hours before the alert went out and 99 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2011-03-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2011-03-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 311 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1527 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
70 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
311 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
327 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

381 
ACUS11 KWNS 231603
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231602
WVZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-231730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0255
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-ERN KY...ERN IND...OH...WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231602Z - 231730Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN IND...CNTRL-ERN
KY...OH AND WV THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIKELY AS STORMS INITIATE AND EXPAND
QUICKLY IN COVERAGE. A TORNADO WATCH SHOULD BE NECESSARY OVER THE 1
TO 2 HOURS.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 998 MB LOW NEAR INDIANAPOLIS WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL OH. SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 250 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE
FROM WV WWD ACROSS KY INTO SRN IND WHERE A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND NEAR THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY IN ERN IND...SW OH AND NCNTRL KY BY 18Z WHICH
THE 14Z HRRR AGREES WITH. RAPID DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 75 TO 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET
EJECTING ENEWD OUT OF THE MID-MS VALLEY SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE STORMS. THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALREADY IN PLACE
SHOULD SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS.
WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS
ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE FAST EWD STORM MOTIONS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE
DOMINANT SUPERCELLS.

..BROYLES.. 03/23/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
IWX...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   36878412 37048243 37378108 38138047 39198025 39728040
            40148101 40528264 40458468 40168541 39618632 38438689
            37348670 36908526 36878412

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 23, 1:12 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, DeKalb, Elkhart, Fulton, Huntington, Kosciusko and 6 more93 min
Mar 23, 1:13 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCBartholomew, Clark, Crawford, Dearborn, Decatur, Dubois and 24 more7 hr
Mar 23, 4:20 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Blackford, Boone, Carroll, Cass, Clinton and 25 more85 min
Mar 23, 7:37 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Clinton, Delaware, Fayette, Fountain, Franklin and 15 more83 min
Mar 23, 3:54 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bath, Bell, Boone, Bourbon, Boyd and 62 more96 min
Mar 23, 3:38 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBland, Carroll, Giles, Grayson, Pulaski, Smyth and 6 more37 min
Mar 23, 3:45 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCAlleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bath, Bedford, Bland and 38 more6 hr
Mar 23, 4:13 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlbemarle, Arlington, Augusta, Clarke, Culpeper, Fairfax and 27 more5 hr
Mar 23, 4:48 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAmelia, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Brunswick, Buckingham and 21 more57 min
Mar 23, 6:04 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAmelia, Brunswick, Caroline, Charles City, Chesterfield, Cumberland and 37 more7 hr
Mar 23, 7:10 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAmelia, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Brunswick, Buckingham and 21 more65 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.