Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 2298

November 8, 201122 counties in Arkansas; 45 counties in Missouri; 13 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 8, 2011, 1:17 AM CST for 22 counties in Arkansas; 45 counties in Missouri; 13 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 8, 2011, 1:17 AM CST (07:17 UTC)
Expired
Nov 8, 2011, 3:15 AM CST
In force
118 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 80 counties

Baxter County, AR, Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Izard County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Logan County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Newton County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, Washington County, AR, Yell County, AR, Audrain County, MO, Barry County, MO, Boone County, MO, Callaway County, MO, Camden County, MO, Christian County, MO, City of Saint Louis, MO, Cole County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howell County, MO, Iron County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Maries County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Osage County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Warren County, MO, Washington County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO, Adair County, OK, Atoka County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Coal County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 46 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 45 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2011-11-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 337 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2011-11-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 271 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
337 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-41 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
664 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
271 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
282 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
3.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

799 
ACUS11 KWNS 080718
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080717
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-080915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2298
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 AM CST TUE NOV 08 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN OK...NWRN AR...AND SWRN THRU E CNTRL
MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 871...873...

VALID 080717Z - 080915Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
871...873...CONTINUES.

ADDITIONAL WWS EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.  BUT THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS...MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.

THE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO SPREAD OUT OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS...TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS WEAK WAVE
MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
TOWARD THE MISSOURI OZARKS.  RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE...RADAR AND
LIGHTNING DATA HAVE INDICATED SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF
CONVECTION...AND THERE IS LITTLE TO SUGGEST A SUBSTANTIVE
RE-INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WITH FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION REMAINING VERY WEAK.  HOWEVER...A FAIRLY STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH 12Z...GENERALLY
COINCIDENT WITH THE LINGERING BAND OF CONVECTION.  WITH AMBIENT WIND
FIELDS AS STRONG AS 40-50 KT BELOW 850 MB...SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM
MAY CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN OR NEAR HEAVIER RAIN
CORES...PERHAPS CONTRIBUTING TO OCCASIONAL ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS.

..KERR.. 11/08/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   38349323 39309229 39239089 38659011 36919111 35959203
            35169292 34249472 33979605 34479689 36059517 37149396
            37819357 38349323

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 8, 9:38 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrawford, Franklin, Sebastian67 min
Nov 8, 10:31 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Clark, Cleburne, Columbia, Conway, Dallas and 31 more29 min
Nov 8, 10:49 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCClark, Cleburne, Columbia, Conway, Dallas, Faulkner and 25 more7 hr
Nov 8, 1:03 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Clark, Columbia, Conway, Dallas, Faulkner and 22 more57 min
Nov 8, 3:48 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Cleburne, Columbia, Conway, Faulkner, Garland and 18 more87 min
Nov 8, 5:09 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas and 7 more66 min
Nov 8, 5:30 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark and 17 more7 hr
Nov 7, 7:43 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Comanche, Cotton, Creek and 22 more62 min
Nov 7, 8:28 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAdair, Caddo, Canadian, Carter, Cherokee, Cleveland and 36 more8 hr
Nov 7, 11:20 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarter, Cherokee, Cleveland, Cotton, Craig, Creek and 22 more85 min
Nov 8, 2:12 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Coal, Jefferson, Johnston and 4 more93 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.