Alert archive / Illinois / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 1339

June 21, 201146 counties in Illinois; 28 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 21, 2011, 12:56 PM CDT for 46 counties in Illinois; 28 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 64 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 21, 2011, 12:56 PM CDT (17:56 UTC)
Expired
Jun 21, 2011, 2:00 PM CDT
In force
64 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 74 counties

Alexander County, IL, Bond County, IL, Calhoun County, IL, Christian County, IL, Clay County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Coles County, IL, Cumberland County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Douglas County, IL, Edwards County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Greene County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jasper County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Logan County, IL, Macon County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Madison County, IL, Marion County, IL, Menard County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Perry County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Richland County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Saline County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Scott County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Union County, IL, Washington County, IL, Wayne County, IL, White County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, City of Saint Louis, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dent County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Howell County, MO, Iron County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Madison County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Perry County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Scott County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Warren County, MO, Washington County, MO, Wayne County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 244 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2011-06-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 489 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2011-06-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -245 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
489 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-145 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1353 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-245 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-164 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
-0.1
Supercell composite
-5.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

129 
ACUS11 KWNS 211756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211756 
ILZ000-MOZ000-211900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1339
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 211756Z - 211900Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM SERN
MO INTO SRN IL AND A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNS OF AN MCV ACROSS SERN MO...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE NEWD INTO IL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND AREA PROFILERS
INDICATE 40-50 KT MEAN DEEP LAYER FLOW AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WHICH IS
FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER
CORES...AND SOME CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY MORPH INTO NNEWD MOVING LINE
SEGMENTS OR BOWS WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

TORNADO POTENTIAL IS A BIT MARGINAL WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING
WITH TIME...BUT STRONG INSTABILITY...FAVORABLY LOW LCL/LFC HEIGHTS
AND EFFECTIVE SRH ON THE ORDER OF 100 M2/S2 MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ONE OR TWO BRIEF TORNADOES.

..JEWELL.. 06/21/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   36569209 37399173 38759151 39469108 40228967 40228841
            39938789 39278781 38408801 37688837 37488849 37058934
            36768971 36579056 36569209

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 21, 11:45 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Bureau, Carroll, Cook, DeKalb, DeWitt and 32 more3 hr
Jun 21, 1:22 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAlexander, Bond, Calhoun, Cass, Champaign, Christian and 49 more9 hr
Jun 21, 3:31 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Bond, Calhoun, Cass, Champaign, Christian and 46 more89 min
Jun 21, 4:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBond, Brown, Bureau, Cass, Champaign, Christian and 68 more94 min
Jun 21, 5:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBoone, Bureau, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Ford and 23 more4 hr
Jun 20, 7:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrew, Atchison, Bates, Buchanan, Caldwell, Cass and 12 more59 min
Jun 20, 8:32 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdair, Andrew, Atchison, Barton, Bates, Benton and 40 more4 hr
Jun 20, 9:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBarry, Barton, Benton, Cedar, Christian, Dade and 12 more9 hr
Jun 20, 10:22 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Caldwell, Carroll, Chariton, Clay, Clinton and 14 more83 min
Jun 21, 3:15 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarry, Christian, Dade, Greene, Jasper, Lawrence and 5 more60 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.