Alert archive / Washington / River Flood Warnings in 2011

River Flood Warning 52, NWS Seattle, WA

November 22, 2011Lewis County, Washington

NWS Seattle, WA issued this river flood warning at Nov 22, 2011, 9:53 AM PST for Lewis County, Washington. It took effect at Nov 23, 2011, 2:06 PM PST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 22, 2011, 9:53 AM PST (17:53 UTC)
In effect from
Nov 23, 2011, 2:06 PM PST
Expired
Nov 23, 2011, 5:46 AM PST
In force
Issued by
NWS Seattle, WA
Flood severity
Minor

County Lewis County, WA

The radar

The Portland,OR radar (KRTX), 106 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Chehalis River at Centralia (CENW1).

Action stage
166 ft
Minor stage
168.5 ft
Moderate stage
172 ft
Major stage
175.5 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 12025500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

064 
WGUS46 KSEW 221753
FLWSEW
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
953 AM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN WASHINGTON...

  NEWAUKUM RIVER NEAR CHEHALIS AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY.
  CHEHALIS RIVER NEAR DOTY AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY.
  CHEHALIS RIVER AT CENTRALIA AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY.
  CHEHALIS RIVER NEAR GRAND MOUND AFFECTING THURSTON COUNTY.

.FLOOD BULLETIN NO. 3

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CHEHALIS AND
NEWAUKUM RIVERS BEGINNING THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER REACH OF THE CHEHALIS RIVER NEAR DOTY WILL REACH FLOOD
STAGE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH FLOODING BEGINNING DOWNSTREAM IN 
CENTRALIA AND FURTHER DOWNSTREAM IN THURSTON COUNTY LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE LOWER REACH OF THE CHEHALIS RIVER IN GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY...WHERE
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY.

THE NEWAUKUM RIVER NEAR CHEHALIS WILL ALSO REACH FLOOD STAGE THIS
EVENING...WITH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE CHEHALIS RIVER BASIN DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE WILLAPA
HILLS. ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS...VANS...OR TRUCKS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. THIS IS 
THE CAUSE OF MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS IN WASHINGTON. BE ALERT FOR 
RAPID CHANGES AND MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA.

&&

WAC041-230253-
/O.NEW.KSEW.FL.W.0050.111123T0759Z-111125T1130Z/
/NEWW1.3.ER.111123T0759Z.111124T0300Z.111125T0230Z.NR/
953 AM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE NEWAUKUM RIVER NEAR CHEHALIS
* FROM THIS EVENING TO THURSDAY NIGHT.
* AT  8:45 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.3 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 6 PM THIS 
  EVENING AND CREST NEAR 12.8 FEET AROUND 10 AM WEDNESDAY. THE RIVER
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 12.5 FEET...FLOOD WATERS WILL INUNDATE MANY ROADS AND
  SOME RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL AREAS ALONG THE NEWAUKUM RIVER AND
  ITS FORKS. IMPACTED ROADWAYS INCLUDE STATE ROUTE 508 AND JACKSON
  HIGHWAY...AS WELL AS SEVERAL SMALLER ROADS NEAR THE RIVER. A STAGE
  OF 12.7 FEET ON THE NEWAUKUM CORRESPONDS TO PHASE 3 IN THE LEWIS
  COUNTY FLOOD SYSTEM.

$$

WAC041-230253-
/O.NEW.KSEW.FL.W.0051.111123T0133Z-111124T0137Z/
/DOTW1.1.ER.111123T0133Z.111123T1200Z.111123T1637Z.UU/
953 AM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE CHEHALIS RIVER NEAR DOTY
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  8:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.2 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 6 PM 
  THIS EVENING AND CREST NEAR 14.2 FEET AROUND 4 AM WEDNESDAY. THE
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATER WEDNESDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS OF THE UPPER CHEHALIS AND
  SOUTH FORK CHEHALIS WILL INUNDATE MANY ROADS AND SOME RESIDENTIAL  
  AND COMMERCIAL AREAS.  IMPACTED ROADWAYS AND SURROUNDING AREAS
  INCLUDE CURTIS HILL...LAKE CREEK...MOON HILL...WILDWOOD ROADS IN
  THE BOISFORT VALLEY AND FRONT STREET BELOW DOTY. A STAGE OF
  13.0 FEET ON THE CHEHALIS NEAR DOTY CORRESPONDS TO JUST BELOW PHASE
  2 IN THE LEWIS COUNTY FLOOD SYSTEM.

$$

WAC041-230253-
/O.NEW.KSEW.FL.W.0052.111123T1538Z-111125T0900Z/
/CENW1.1.ER.111123T1538Z.111124T1200Z.111125T0000Z.NO/
953 AM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE CHEHALIS RIVER AT CENTRALIA
* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* AT  9:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 52.4 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 65.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 8 AM 
  WEDNESDAY AND CREST NEAR 67.1 FEET AROUND 4 AM THURSDAY. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE THURSDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 65.0 FEET...THE CHEHALIS RIVER IN LEWIS COUNTY WILL 
  CAUSE SHALLOW FLOODING OF FARM LANDS AND SOME ROADS.  A STAGE OF
  65.0 FEET CORRESPONDS TO A PHASE I FLOOD IN THE LEWIS COUNTY FLOOD 
  WARNING SYSTEM.

$$

WAC067-230253-
/O.NEW.KSEW.FL.W.0053.111123T1654Z-111125T1313Z/
/CGMW1.2.ER.111123T1654Z.111124T1200Z.111125T0413Z.NO/
953 AM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE CHEHALIS RIVER NEAR GRAND MOUND
* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* AT  9:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.5 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 9 AM 
  WEDNESDAY AND CREST NEAR 15.8 FEET AROUND 8 AM THURSDAY. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 15.5 FEET...THE CHEHALIS RIVER IN THURSTON COUNTY WILL 
  FLOOD SEVERAL ROADS IN INDEPENDENCE VALLEY WITH SWIFTLY MOVING 
  WATER INCLUDING SR-12 AND JAMES...INDEPENDENCE...MOON AND ANDERSON 
  ROADS. FLOOD WATERS WILL CUT OFF ACCESS TO AND FROM CHEHALIS 
  RESERVATION AND INUNDATE NEARBY FARM LANDS. SOME RESIDENTIAL 
  STRUCTURES MAY BE THREATENED.

$$

MCDONNAL
WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
3 follow-up statements
482 
WGUS86 KSEW 222343
FLSSEW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
343 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WASHINGTON...
 
  PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING AFFECTING PIERCE COUNTY. 
  DESCHUTES RIVER NEAR RAINIER AFFECTING THURSTON COUNTY. 
  NEWAUKUM R NR CHEHALIS AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
  CHEHALIS RIVER NR DOTY AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
  CHEHALIS RIVER AT CENTRALIA AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
  CHEHALIS RIVER NEAR GRAND MOUND AFFECTING THURSTON COUNTY. 
  SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH AFFECTING MASON COUNTY. 
 
.FLOOD BULLETIN NO. 5

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CHEHALIS...
NEWAUKUM...DESCHUTES AND SKOKOMISH RIVERS...AND ALONG THE REACH OF
THE PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING. 

RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF WESTERN WASHINGTON HAS RANGED
FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES SINCE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES IS LIKELY OVER THESE SAME AREAS
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS...VANS...OR TRUCKS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. THIS IS 
THE CAUSE OF MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS IN WASHINGTON. BE ALERT FOR 
RAPID CHANGES AND MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA.

&&

WAC045-230843-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-111124T0518Z/
/SRPW1.3.ER.111122T1705Z.111122T2030Z.111123T2018Z.NR/
343 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. 
* AT  3:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED AT 16.9 FEET AT NOON TODAY AND WILL
  CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE WEDNESDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 16.5 FEET...THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD 
  FLOODING OF PASTURE LANDS...WITH WATER FLOWING QUICKLY OVER EAST 
  BOURGAULT ROAD AND SKOKOMISH VALLEY ROAD.

$$

WAC053-230842-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0054.111122T2355Z-111124T0648Z/
/ORTW1.1.ER.111122T2355Z.111123T0600Z.111123T2148Z.NO/
343 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING
* FROM 4 PM TUESDAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* AT  2:45 PM TUESDAY THE FLOW WAS 2770 CFS. 
* FLOOD FLOW IS 4500 CFS. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD FLOW AROUND 4 PM THIS
  AFTERNOON AND CREST NEAR 7000 CFS AROUND 10 PM THIS EVENING. THE
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 4500 CFS...THE PUYALLUP RIVER WILL FLOOD SOME AREAS 
  ALONG THE UPPER PUYALLUP RIVER ABOVE ORTING.  AREAS INCLUDE BUT ARE
  NOT LIMITED TO THE NEADHAM ROAD VICINITY...ORVILLE ROAD EAST 
  VICINITY IN AREAS SOUTH OF BROOKS ROAD EAST AND NORTH OF ELECTRON 
  ROAD...AND THE COUNTRY SUBDIVISION/TOMOLLA TREE FARM VICINITY.

$$

WAC067-230842-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0055.111123T0528Z-111124T1148Z/
/DSRW1.1.ER.111123T0528Z.111123T1800Z.111124T0248Z.NO/
343 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DESCHUTES RIVER NEAR RAINIER
* FROM 9 PM TUESDAY UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* AT  2:45 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 9 PM 
  THIS EVENING AND CREST NEAR 13.4 FEET AROUND 10 AM WEDNESDAY. THE
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...THE DESCHUTES RIVER WILL FLOOD DOWNSTREAM
  IN TUMWATER VALLEY INCLUDING THE GOLF COURSE. MINOR FLOODING WILL 
  ALSO OCCUR IN SEVERAL RESIDENTIAL AREAS...MAINLY COUGAR MOUNTAIN 
  AND DRIFTWOOD VALLEY. MANY ROADS AND FARM LANDS WILL ALSO BE 
  FLOODED.

$$

WAC041-230842-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0050.111123T0736Z-111125T0000Z/
/NEWW1.1.ER.111123T0736Z.111124T0000Z.111124T1500Z.NO/
343 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEWAUKUM RIVER NEAR CHEHALIS
* FROM 12 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  2:45 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 8 PM THIS
  EVENING AND CREST NEAR 13.0 FEET AROUND 4 PM WEDNESDAY. THE RIVER
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 12.5 FEET...FLOOD WATERS WILL INUNDATE MANY ROADS AND
  SOME RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL AREAS ALONG THE NEWAUKUM RIVER AND
  ITS FORKS. IMPACTED ROADWAYS INCLUDE STATE ROUTE 508 AND JACKSON
  HIGHWAY...AS WELL AS SEVERAL SMALLER ROADS NEAR THE RIVER. A STAGE
  OF 12.7 FEET ON THE NEWAUKUM CORRESPONDS TO PHASE 3 IN THE LEWIS
  COUNTY FLOOD SYSTEM.

$$

WAC041-230842-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0051.111122T2352Z-111124T0355Z/
/DOTW1.1.ER.111122T2352Z.111123T1200Z.111123T1855Z.UU/
343 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CHEHALIS RIVER NEAR DOTY
* FROM 4 PM TUESDAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* AT  2:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT
  TONIGHT AND CREST NEAR 16.3 FEET AROUND 6 AM WEDNESDAY. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY MIDDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS OF THE UPPER CHEHALIS AND
  SOUTH FORK CHEHALIS WILL INUNDATE MANY ROADS AND SOME RESIDENTIAL
  AND COMMERCIAL AREAS.  IMPACTED ROADWAYS AND SURROUNDING AREAS
  INCLUDE CURTIS HILL...LAKE CREEK...MOON HILL...WILDWOOD ROADS IN
  THE BOISFORT VALLEY AND FRONT STREET BELOW DOTY. A STAGE OF
  13.0 FEET ON THE CHEHALIS NEAR DOTY CORRESPONDS TO JUST BELOW PHASE
  2 IN THE LEWIS COUNTY FLOOD SYSTEM.

$$

WAC041-230842-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0052.111123T1133Z-111125T1648Z/
/CENW1.2.ER.111123T1133Z.111124T1200Z.111125T0748Z.NO/
343 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CHEHALIS RIVER AT CENTRALIA
* FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT  3:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 53.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 65.0 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 4 AM 
  WEDNESDAY AND CREST NEAR 70.0 FEET AROUND 4 AM THURSDAY. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 68.5 FEET...THE CHEHALIS RIVER IN LEWIS COUNTY WILL 
  FLOOD SOME RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL AREAS...WITH WATER 
  ENCROACHING UPON THE FIRST FLOOR OF SOME HOMES AND BUSINESSES. 
  SWIFT FLOOD WATERS WILL COVER SOME ROADS. A STAGE OF 68.0 FEET 
  CORRESPONDS TO A PHASE 2 FLOOD IN THE LEWIS COUNTY FLOOD SYSTEM.

$$

WAC067-230842-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0053.111123T1324Z-111125T2218Z/
/CGMW1.2.ER.111123T1324Z.111124T1200Z.111125T1318Z.NO/
343 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CHEHALIS RIVER NEAR GRAND MOUND
* FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  3:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 5 AM 
  WEDNESDAY AND CREST NEAR 16.9 FEET AROUND 8 AM THURSDAY. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 15.5 FEET...THE CHEHALIS RIVER IN THURSTON COUNTY WILL 
  FLOOD SEVERAL ROADS IN INDEPENDENCE VALLEY WITH SWIFTLY MOVING 
  WATER INCLUDING SR-12 AND JAMES...INDEPENDENCE...MOON AND ANDERSON 
  ROADS. FLOOD WATERS WILL CUT OFF ACCESS TO AND FROM CHEHALIS 
  RESERVATION AND INUNDATE NEARBY FARM LANDS. SOME RESIDENTIAL 
  STRUCTURES MAY BE THREATENED.

$$

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
400 
WGUS86 KSEW 230539
FLSSEW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
939 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS ENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WASHINGTON...
 
  CHEHALIS RIVER NR DOTY AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY.
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WASHINGTON...
 
  SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH AFFECTING MASON COUNTY. 
  PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING AFFECTING PIERCE COUNTY. 
  DESCHUTES RIVER NEAR RAINIER AFFECTING THURSTON COUNTY. 
  CHEHALIS RIVER AT CENTRALIA AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
  CHEHALIS RIVER NEAR GRAND MOUND AFFECTING THURSTON COUNTY. 
  NEWAUKUM R NR CHEHALIS AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
 
.FLOOD BULLETIN NO. 6

MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG MOST OF THE
CHEHALIS...NEWAUKUM...DESCHUTES AND SKOKOMISH RIVERS...AND ALONG
THE REACH OF THE PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME MODERATE FLOODING ON THE CHEHALIS NEAR GRAND
MOUND. 

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE BAND OF 
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH THIS EVENING TO A 
LINE FROM ABOUT HOQUIAM TO OLYMPIA TO BETWEEN SNOQUALMIE AND STEVENS
PASS NORTHWARD. THIS BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHWESTERN OREGON DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE SHIFT NORTHWARD OF THE HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION 
FORECASTED CRESTS ON THE RIVERS OVER SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON HAVE
BEEN REDUCED. THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CHEHALIS AT DOTY HAS ENDED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS...VANS...OR TRUCKS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...THIS IS 
THE CAUSE OF MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS IN WASHINGTON. BE ALERT FOR 
RAPID CHANGES AND MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA.

&&

WAC045-231339-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-111124T0909Z/
/SRPW1.3.ER.111122T1705Z.111122T2030Z.111124T0009Z.NR/
939 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 
* AT  8:45 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL REMAIN NEAR 17.0 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY   
MORNING THEN SLOWLY RECEDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER IS
FORECASTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.5 FEET...THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD 
  FLOODING OF PASTURE LANDS...WITH WATER FLOWING QUICKLY OVER EAST 
  BOURGAULT ROAD AND SKOKOMISH VALLEY ROAD.

$$

WAC053-231339-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-111123T2100Z/
/ORTW1.1.ER.111123T1200Z.111123T1200Z.111123T1200Z.NO/
939 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING
* FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  8:45 PM TUESDAY THE FLOW WAS 3293 CFS. 
* FLOOD FLOW IS 4500 CFS. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE AND CREST NEAR FLOOD FLOW AROUND 4 
  AM WEDNESDAY THEN BEGIN TO FALL.
* IMPACT...AT 4500 CFS...THE PUYALLUP RIVER WILL FLOOD SOME AREAS 
  ALONG THE UPPER PUYALLUP RIVER ABOVE ORTING.  AREAS INCLUDE BUT
ARE NOT LIMITED TO THE NEADHAM ROAD VICINITY...ORVILLE ROAD EAST 
  VICINITY IN AREAS SOUTH OF BROOKS ROAD EAST AND NORTH OF ELECTRON 
  ROAD...AND THE COUNTRY SUBDIVISION/TOMOLLA TREE FARM VICINITY.

$$

WAC067-231339-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0055.111123T1200Z-111123T2100Z/
/DSRW1.1.ER.111123T1200Z.111123T1200Z.111123T1200Z.NO/
939 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DESCHUTES RIVER NEAR RAINIER
* FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  8:45 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE AND CREST NEAR FLOOD STAGE AROUND 4 
  AM WEDNESDAY THEN BEGIN TO FALL.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...THE DESCHUTES RIVER WILL FLOOD DOWNSTREAM
IN TUMWATER VALLEY INCLUDING THE GOLF COURSE.  MINOR FLOODING WILL 
ALSO OCCUR IN SEVERAL RESIDENTIAL AREAS...MAINLY COUGAR MOUNTAIN 
AND DRIFTWOOD VALLEY. MANY ROADS AND FARM LANDS WILL ALSO BE 
FLOODED.

$$

WAC041-231338-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0050.111123T0736Z-111125T0000Z/
/NEWW1.1.ER.111123T0736Z.111124T0000Z.111124T1500Z.NO/
939 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEWAUKUM R NR CHEHALIS
* FROM 12 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  8:45 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 12 AM 
  WEDNESDAY AND CREST NEAR 12.6 FEET AROUND 10 AM WEDNESDAY. THE
RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.5 FEET...FLOOD WATERS WILL INUNDATE MANY ROADS AND
  SOME RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL AREAS ALONG THE NEWAUKUM RIVER AND
  ITS FORKS. IMPACTED ROADWAYS INCLUDE STATE ROUTE 508 AND JACKSON
  HIGHWAY...AS WELL AS SEVERAL SMALLER ROADS NEAR THE RIVER. A STAGE
  OF 12.7 FEET ON THE NEWAUKUM CORRESPONDS TO PHASE 3 IN THE LEWIS
  COUNTY FLOOD SYSTEM.

$$

WAC041-230609-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FL.W.0051.000000T0000Z-111124T0355Z/
/DOTW1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
939 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE CHEHALIS RIVER NR DOTY
* AT  8:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER IS FORECASTED TO CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.


$$

WAC041-231338-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0052.111123T2206Z-111125T1043Z/
/CENW1.1.ER.111123T2206Z.111124T1200Z.111125T0143Z.NO/
939 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CHEHALIS RIVER AT CENTRALIA
* FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* AT  9:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 55.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 65.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 2 PM 
  WEDNESDAY AND CREST NEAR 66.4 FEET AROUND 4 AM THURSDAY. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 65.0 FEET...THE CHEHALIS RIVER IN LEWIS COUNTY WILL 
  CAUSE SHALLOW FLOODING OF FARM LANDS AND SOME ROADS.  A STAGE OF
65 FEET CORRESPONDS TO A PHASE I FLOOD IN THE LEWIS COUNTY FLOOD 
  WARNING SYSTEM.

$$

WAC067-231338-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0053.111123T1659Z-111125T1703Z/
/CGMW1.2.ER.111123T1659Z.111124T1200Z.111125T0803Z.NO/
939 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CHEHALIS RIVER NEAR GRAND MOUND
* FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT  9:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 9 AM 
  WEDNESDAY AND CREST NEAR 15.9 FEET AROUND 4 AM THURSDAY. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 15.5 FEET...THE CHEHALIS RIVER IN THURSTON COUNTY WILL 
  FLOOD SEVERAL ROADS IN INDEPENDENCE VALLEY WITH SWIFTLY MOVING 
  WATER INCLUDING SR-12 AND JAMES...INDEPENDENCE...MOON AND ANDERSON 
  ROADS. FLOOD WATERS WILL CUT OFF ACCESS TO AND FROM CHEHALIS 
  RESERVATION AND INUNDATE NEARBY FARM LANDS.  SOME RESIDENTIAL 
  STRUCTURES MAY BE THREATENED.

$$

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
286 
WGUS86 KSEW 231346
FLSSEW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
546 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS ENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WASHINGTON...
 
  DESCHUTES RIVER NEAR RAINIER AFFECTING THURSTON COUNTY.
  CHEHALIS RIVER AT CENTRALIA AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY.
  CHEHALIS RIVER NEAR GRAND MOUND AFFECTING THURSTON COUNTY.
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WASHINGTON...
 
  PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING AFFECTING PIERCE COUNTY. 
  NEWAUKUM R NR CHEHALIS AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
 
.FLOOD BULLETIN NO. 7

                SOUTH WEST REGION

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE FRONT THAT STALLED
OFFSHORE TUESDAY HAS MOVED INLAND THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING WITH THE RAIN COMING TO AN END
LATER THIS MORNING. 

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AREA SHIFTED NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. DUE TO
THIS SHIFT...THE FORECASTED CRESTS ON THE RIVERS IN SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON HAVE BEEN REDUCED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS...VANS...OR TRUCKS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...THIS IS 
THE CAUSE OF MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS IN WASHINGTON. BE ALERT FOR 
RAPID CHANGES AND MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA.

&&

WAC053-232146-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-111124T0912Z/
/ORTW1.1.ER.111123T1240Z.111123T1800Z.111124T0012Z.NO/
546 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. 
* AT  4:45 AM WEDNESDAY THE FLOW WAS 4575 CFS. 
* FLOOD FLOW IS 4500 CFS. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 5100 CFS 
  AROUND 10 AM WEDNESDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD FLOW LATE 
  THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 4500 CFS...THE PUYALLUP RIVER WILL FLOOD SOME AREAS 
  ALONG THE UPPER PUYALLUP RIVER ABOVE ORTING.  AREAS INCLUDE BUT
ARE
  NOT LIMITED TO THE NEADHAM ROAD VICINITY...ORVILLE ROAD EAST 
  VICINITY IN AREAS SOUTH OF BROOKS ROAD EAST AND NORTH OF ELECTRON 
  ROAD...AND THE COUNTRY SUBDIVISION/TOMOLLA TREE FARM VICINITY.

$$

WAC067-231416-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-111123T2100Z/
/DSRW1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
546 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE DESCHUTES RIVER NEAR RAINIER
* AT  4:45 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS
MORNING.

$$

WAC041-232146-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0050.111123T0759Z-111125T0000Z/
/NEWW1.2.ER.111123T0759Z.111123T1800Z.111124T1500Z.NR/
546 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEWAUKUM R NR CHEHALIS
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 
* AT  4:45 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 10.6 FEET
  AROUND 10 AM WEDNESDAY. 
* IMPACT...AT 10.5 FEET...FLOOD WATERS WILL INUNDATE MANY ROADS AND 
  RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL AREAS ALONG THE NEWAUKUM RIVER AND ITS 
  FORKS. A STAGE OF 10.5 ON THE NEWAUKUM ROUGHLY CORRESPONDS TO
PHASE 2 FLOOD IN THE LEWIS COUNTY FLOOD SYSTEM.

$$

WAC041-231416-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-111125T1043Z/
/CENW1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
546 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE CHEHALIS RIVER AT CENTRALIA
* AT  5:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 56.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 65.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE TONIGHT.

$$

WAC067-231416-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FL.W.0053.000000T0000Z-111125T1703Z/
/CGMW1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
546 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE CHEHALIS RIVER NEAR GRAND MOUND
* AT  5:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER IS FORECASTED TO CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE TONIGHT.

$$

FELTON
WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Nov 22, 9:30 AM PST, 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 22, 9:30 AM PST, 23 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 AM PST WED NOV 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIND TO TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON...POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH
INTERIOR ON THURSDAY. MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON CAUSING TRAVEL DIFFICULTY ACROSS THE PASSES
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A VERY WELL DEFINED FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE N
INTERIOR AROUND 6 AM AND THROUGH PUGET SOUND SHORTLY AFTER 7 AM WITH
ABRUPT WIND SHIFTS FROM THE S TO THE W/SW. DAMAGING WINDS OCCURING
OVERNIGHT ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST AND N INTERIOR WITH GUSTS UP TO
60 MPH REPORTED. WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN DRAMATICALLY ACROSS BASICALLY
ALL OF WRN WA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTING S AND EWD INTO
OREGON. EVEN THE WLY FLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT IS IS SUB ADVISORY
LEVELS AND SW WINDS WE OFTEN SEE COME UP POST FRONTAL IN PUGET SOUND
ARE LIKELY TO JUST BE BREEZY TODAY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE
SUSTAINED. WILL LIKELY DROP THE CURRENT WIND WARNING FOR THE FOR THE
N INTERIOR SHORTLY. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SRN SECTIONS WAS ALREADY
DROPPED EARLIER.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION WHICH HAS
FALLEN AS HEAVY SNOW IN SOME PLACES AND HEAVY RAIN IN OTHERS. THE
WARM AIR MOVED IN UNEVENLY OVERNIGHT WITH PASSES TRAPPING COLD AIR
AND MOST THE CASCADES STAYING MOSTLY AS SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET LAST
NIGHT. IT APPEARS WE EASILY HIT WINTER STORM CRITERIA WITH SEVERAL
LOCATIONS REPORTING 12-18 INCHES...AND MOUNT BAKER POSSIBLY THE
WINNER WITH 24 INCHES SO FAR. HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS LOWER
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND ESPECIALLY THE OLYMPICS. THE IMMEDIATE
CONCERN IS FOR BASINS IN THE OLYMPICS...BUT WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING
IN THE CENTRAL CASCADES TODAY THERE ARE OTHER CONCERNS THERE. FOR
HYDRO DETAILS PLEASE SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

THE FRONTAL BAND AND HEAVIEST PRECIP HAS SHIFTED SWD...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE CENTRAL CASCADES AND FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS
TO HANG IN ACROSS THE N CASCADES BUT SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CASCADES BUT MORE PROBLEMATIC. MODELS SHOW THE MAIN MOISTURE BAND TO
LIFT BAND NWD LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS A WAVE FORMS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC BAND OFF THE OREGON COAST. LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES NWD AND
EVENTUALLY MOVES MOVES JUST N OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES WHICH WILL
CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO RISE TO ABOVE 5500 FEET THERE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. PASSES WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET/AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN BEFORE GOING TO RAIN IN MANY
PLACES. WILL KEEP THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL CASCADES AND
OLYMPICS IN PLACE UNTIL 6 PM BUT INDICATE THE MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL
IN THE PASSES AND THE MAIN SNOW LEVELS RISING. FOR THE N CASCADES IT
APPEARS COLDER AIR WILL HANG IN THERE WITH MOUNT BAKER LIKELY TO
REALLY PILE UP ADDITIONAL SNOW. WILL EXTEND THE WARNING THERE TROUGH
10 AM WEDNESDAY AS THE REST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES.

THIS FIRST EVENT SLOWLY UNWINDS AS FAR AS SNOW IS CONCERNED
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER
SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER VERY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING WRN WA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGH WINDS WILL AGAIN BE A BIG CONCERN IN THE SAME SPOTS THAT GOT
HIGH WINDS OVERNIGHT. WILL HOIST A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
N/CENTRAL COAST...AND FOR THE ADMIRALTY INLET AREA NWD FROM EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AGAIN COULD GUSTS TO
55-60 MPH IN THOSE SPOTS. PRECIP WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO REACH
THE CASCADES...BY AFTERNOON. WILL DECIDED ON A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. THE INITIAL
MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING SUGGEST THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOWER AND A
FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE IN OLYMPICS AND CASCADES
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...AFFECTING HOLIDAY TRAVEL THROUGH THE
PASSES.  MERCER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY FOR A FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER DAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A QUASI-PINEAPPLE EXPRESS TYPE
PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY POINTED AT VANCOUVER
ISLAND SATURDAY THEN SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON
SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS
OVER THE REGION. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL PRESENT A THREAT OF FLOODING
ON WESTERN WASHINGTON RIVERS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST OF THESE
WAVES MOVED INTO THE AREA LAST NIGHT...BRINGING 2 TO 6 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS AND DRIVING THE SNOW LEVEL TO
AROUND 5500 FT. LESS PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY
1 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE CASCADES AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. THAT
FEATURE IS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST...WITH THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
OVER THE SOUTH OLYMPICS...SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...AND THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

THE SECOND FRONTAL WAVE WILL SHIFT THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION A BIT
FURTHER NORTH AGAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE IT EVENTUALLY
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IN TOTAL THOUGH...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
WILL STILL BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OVER THE LOWLANDS. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FT.

A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER...AND IT WILL
REACH FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. THE RIVER OF
PRIMARY CONCERN THERE IS THE ELWHA...IN PART DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
ITS BEHAVIOR SINCE THE DAMS THERE WERE RECENTLY REMOVED.

A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ALSO FOR THE INTERIOR COUNTIES FROM
SNOHOMISH COUNTY SOUTHWARD. MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE
NEWAUKUM...CHEHALIS...PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING...AND THE
SNOQUALMIE AND STILLAGUAMISH RIVERS.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS LIMITED TO THE MOST
FLOOD-PRONE RIVERS WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HOWEVER THE LATEST RUN OF
THE HYDROLOGIC MODELS AT THE NWS NORTHWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER IS
FORECASTING SOMEWHAT HIGHER LEVELS IN THE CHEHALIS BASIN...WITH
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING A GOOD POSSIBILITY THERE. ELSEWHERE THE
FLOODING THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MINOR.

FINALLY IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A SCENARIO LIKE THIS...WITH
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING IN MULTIPLE SYNOPTIC WAVES...DOES LEAVE A
HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. THE BOTTOM LINE THEN IS STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES AND REVISIONS TO THE FORECAST.  FELTON/MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...THE STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO NORTHWEST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN OREGON. THE MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT...HAS
SHIFTED SOUTHEAST TO A LONE FROM ABOUT THE NORTHERN CASCADES TO
ASTORIA OREGON. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL
SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WILL SAG
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
LIGHTER LOW LEVEL FLOW BELOW 2000 FEET AND RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN
LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO THE LOWER END OF MVFR FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS HOURS. MVFR TO
LOCAL IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING AS PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. WINDS
HAVE EASED TO SW 20-35KT AT 850 MB THIS MORNING. S-SW WINDS 60-75 KT
AT 5000 FT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

KSEA...RAIN WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCT-BKN018 OVC040 WITH OCNL -RA WILL BECOME 4SM RA OVC015
AFTER 22Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z WED. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING WED MORNING. WIND S10 KT SHIFTING BECOMING LIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT WIND AT 050 INCREASING TO S45 KT
00Z...SW 70KT AT 06Z. WIND AT 020 INCREASING TO S 45 KT 02Z-05Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WED GIVING LLWS. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...THE STRONG FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE WATERS HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT AND MAY RESULT IN A SMALL AREA OF S WIND 30 KT
NEAR GRAYS HARBOR BAR. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SE OF THE
AREA WED MORNING. LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST...THROUGH THE STRAIT...AND OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS AS CONTINUE STRONG WINDS ALOFT INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE COAST AND AT THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AS A 15-17 FT
SWELL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST WED
NIGHT AND WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS THU. EXPECT STORM FORCE
WINDS TO DEVELOP ON THE COAST...AT THE EAST ENTRANCE TO THE
STRAIT...AND IN THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH
GALES IN OTHER WATERS EXCEPT PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL. GALE AND
STORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

YET ANOTHER STRONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY.  ALBRECHT

&&

.AVALANCHE...PERFECT STORM OF AVALANCHE CONDITIONS UNFOLDING TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH ABUNDANT VERY WEAK SNOW LAYERS DEPOSITED
SINCE PREVIOUS RAIN EVENT LAST WEDNESDAY NOW BEING STRESSED BY
INCREASINGLY HEAVY SNOW OR RAIN...RISING FREEZING LEVELS...AND VERY
STRONG WINDS. ADD IN SOME VERY WEAK FACETED SNOW NEAR THE GROUND AND
THIS SPELLS DANGER IN ALL CAPS. INCREASING NATURAL ACTIVITY REPORTED
YESTERDAY DURING COLDER SNOWFALL JUST A WARMUP FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS. HIGH TO EXTREME DANGER INCREASING. MUCH SAFER IN THE
MALLS AND BETTER FOR THE ECONOMY TOO. NO TIME TO BE RECREATING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. MOORE

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL COAST...AND THE NORTH
     INTERIOR FROM THE ADMIRALTY INLET AREA NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY.
    .WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH WASHINGTON CASCADES THROUGH
     10 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
    .WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OLYMPICS AND CENTRAL CASCADES THROUGH 6
     PM PST.
    .FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST...STRAIT...AND NORTHERN INLAND
     WATERS.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR SEVERE BAR CONDITIONS.

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

In the hours before

Local storm report, Nov 22, 7:54 AM PST, 1 hour 59 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
754 AM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       N HAMMA HAMMA           47.53N 123.05W
11/22/2011  M3.29 INCH       MASON              WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL TOTAL IN LILLIWAUP AREA BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 AM
            THIS MORNING.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SW BRINNON            47.65N 122.94W
11/22/2011  M3.90 INCH       JEFFERSON          WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AT 7AM.

0215 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E NOON                48.80N 122.37W
11/22/2011  M57 MPH          WHATCOM            WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEAK WIND OF 57 MPH OVERNIGHT.

&&

DDAMICO
Local storm report, Nov 22, 8:34 AM PST, 1 hour 19 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
834 AM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 WNW VESTA             46.86N 123.66W
11/22/2011  M2.33 INCH       GRAYS HARBOR       WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AT 8AM.

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SW MONTESANO          46.97N 123.65W
11/22/2011  M2.14 INCH       GRAYS HARBOR       WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING 8 AM.

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNE WINLOCK           46.52N 122.93W
11/22/2011  M0.50 INCH       LEWIS              WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IN 1 HOUR...BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM.

&&

DDAMICO

The office that day

Everything else NWS Seattle, WA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 22, 2:53 AM PSTSmall Craft AdvisorySEW94 min
Nov 22, 2:57 AM PSTHigh Surf AdvisorySEW6 hr
Nov 22, 5:51 AM PSTRiver Flood WarningSEWMason48 hr
Nov 22, 9:01 AM PSTSmall Craft AdvisorySEW12 hr
Nov 22, 9:53 AM PSTRiver Flood WarningSEWLewis44 hr
Nov 22, 9:53 AM PSTRiver Flood WarningSEWLewis12 hr
Nov 22, 9:53 AM PSTRiver Flood WarningSEWThurston20 hr
Nov 22, 10:04 AM PSTHigh Wind WatchSEWSan Juan27 hr
Nov 22, 11:49 AM PSTRiver Flood WarningSEWPierce34 hr
Nov 22, 11:49 AM PSTRiver Flood WarningSEWThurston18 hr
Nov 22, 2:41 PM PSTGale WatchSEW24 hr
Nov 22, 2:41 PM PSTStorm WatchSEW24 hr
Nov 22, 2:41 PM PSTSmall Craft Advisory for Hazardous SeasSEW36 hr
Nov 22, 2:55 PM PSTAreal Flood AdvisorySEWGrays Harbor, King, Kitsap, Lewis, Mason, Pierce and 1 more12 hr
Nov 22, 3:40 PM PSTGale WarningSEW8 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Washington, 2011Every river flood warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.