Alert archive / Washington / River Flood Warnings in 2011

River Flood Warning 3, NWS Seattle, WA

January 15, 2011Pierce County, Washington

NWS Seattle, WA issued this river flood warning at Jan 15, 2011, 8:38 PM PST for Pierce County, Washington. It took effect at Jan 16, 2011, 3:05 PM PST. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jan 15, 2011, 8:38 PM PST (04:38 UTC)
In effect from: Jan 16, 2011, 3:05 PM PST
Expired: Jan 16, 2011, 6:51 PM PST
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: NWS Seattle, WA
Flood severity: Minor

County Pierce County, WA

The radar

The Seattle radar (KATX), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Carbon River near Fairfax (FFXW1).

Action stage: 11.6 ft
Minor stage: 13.5 ft
Moderate stage: 14.5 ft
Major stage: 15 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 12094000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

691 
WGUS46 KSEW 160438
FLWSEW
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
838 PM PST SAT JAN 15 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN WASHINGTON...

  CARBON RIVER NEAR FAIRFAX AFFECTING PIERCE COUNTY.
  PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING AFFECTING PIERCE COUNTY.
  NISQUALLY RIVER NEAR NATIONAL AFFECTING LEWIS AND PIERCE COUNTIES.
  DESCHUTES RIVER NEAR RAINIER AFFECTING THURSTON COUNTY.
  COWLITZ RIVER AT PACKWOOD AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY.
  COWLITZ RIVER AT RANDLE AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY.
  COWLITZ RIVER BELOW MAYFIELD DAM AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY.

.FLOOD BULLETIN NO. 8

HEAVY RAIN HAS STARTED TO FALL OVER THE RIVER BASINS OF SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THERE THROUGH AT LEAST
NOON SUNDAY. MOSTLY MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. HOWEVER
MAJOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE COWLITZ RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS...VANS...OR TRUCKS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...THIS IS 
THE CAUSE OF MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS IN WASHINGTON. BE ALERT FOR 
RAPID CHANGES AND MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA.

&&

WAC053-161338-
/O.NEW.KSEW.FL.W.0003.110116T2138Z-110118T0031Z/
/FFXW1.1.ER.110116T2138Z.110117T0600Z.110117T1531Z.NO/
838 PM PST SAT JAN 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE CARBON RIVER NEAR FAIRFAX
* FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  8:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.7 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.5 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 2 PM SUNDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 14.1 FEET AROUND 10 PM SUNDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.5 FEET...THE CARBON RIVER WILL FLOOD THE RESIDENTIAL 
  AREAS NEAR CROCKER AND SECTIONS OF THE CARBON RIVER RD.

$$

WAC053-161338-
/O.NEW.KSEW.FL.W.0004.110116T0907Z-110118T1721Z/
/ORTW1.1.ER.110116T0907Z.110117T0000Z.110118T0821Z.NO/
838 PM PST SAT JAN 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT  7:45 PM SATURDAY THE FLOW WAS 2005 CFS.
* FLOOD FLOW IS 4500 CFS. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD FLOW AROUND 4 AM SUNDAY. 
  THE RIVER WILL PROBABLY RISE TO 9000 CFS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND 
  COULD CREST AS HIGH AS 11000 CFS AROUND 4 PM SUNDAY. THE RIVER WILL
  FALL BELOW FLOOD FLOW EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 9000 CFS...THE PUYALLUP RIVER WILL FLOOD SEVERAL 
  RESIDENTIAL AREAS NEAR ORTING WHERE LEVEES REMAIN DAMAGED FROM 
  FLOODING IN RECENT YEARS.

$$

WAC041-053-161338-
/O.NEW.KSEW.FL.W.0005.110116T1924Z-110118T1249Z/
/NISW1.2.ER.110116T1924Z.110117T0600Z.110118T0349Z.NO/
838 PM PST SAT JAN 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE NISQUALLY RIVER NEAR NATIONAL
* FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
* AT  8:00 PM SATURDAY THE FLOW WAS 2367 CFS.
* FLOOD FLOW IS 8000 CFS. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD FLOW AROUND 11 AM SUNDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 10700 CFS AROUND 10 PM SUNDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD FLOW MONDAY EVENING.

$$

WAC067-161338-
/O.NEW.KSEW.FL.W.0006.110116T1633Z-110118T0627Z/
/DSRW1.1.ER.110116T1633Z.110117T0600Z.110117T2127Z.NO/
838 PM PST SAT JAN 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE DESCHUTES RIVER NEAR RAINIER
* FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO MONDAY EVENING.
* AT  7:45 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.8 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND NOON SUNDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 13.0 FEET AROUND 10 PM SUNDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...THE DESCHUTES RIVER WILL FLOOD DOWNSTREAM IN
  TUMWATER VALLEY INCLUDING THE GOLF COURSE.  MINOR FLOODING WILL 
  ALSO OCCUR IN SEVERAL RESIDENTIAL AREAS...MAINLY COUGAR MOUNTAIN 
  AND DRIFTWOOD VALLEY. MANY ROADS AND FARM LANDS WILL ALSO BE 
  FLOODED.

$$

WAC041-161338-
/O.NEW.KSEW.FL.W.0007.110116T2231Z-110117T2333Z/
/PACW1.2.ER.110116T2231Z.110117T0600Z.110117T1433Z.NO/
838 PM PST SAT JAN 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE COWLITZ RIVER AT PACKWOOD
* FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  8:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.1 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 1 PM SUNDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 11.4 FEET AROUND 10 PM SUNDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.5 FEET...THE COWLITZ RIVER WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING 
  FROM THE UPPER REACHES OF THE RIVER DOWNSTREAM THROUGH PACKWOOD...
  COVERING SEVERAL ROADS ALONG THE RIVER AND NEARBY PASTURE LANDS.

$$

WAC041-161338-
/O.NEW.KSEW.FL.W.0008.110116T1233Z-110119T0818Z/
/RAWW1.3.ER.110116T1233Z.110117T1800Z.110118T2318Z.NO/
838 PM PST SAT JAN 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE COWLITZ RIVER AT RANDLE
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
* AT  8:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.0 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 7 AM SUNDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 23.2 FEET AROUND 10 AM MONDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...THE COWLITZ RIVER WILL CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING 
  FROM THE VICINITY OF RANDLE DOWNSTREAM THROUGH RIFFE LAKE...WITH 
  DANGEROUS INUNDATION OF MANY ROADS INCLUDING US HIGHWAY 12...
  RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL AREAS...AND FARMS.  FLOODING WILL OCCUR 
  ALL ALONG THE RIVER INCLUDING HEADWATERS...TRIBUTARIES...AND OTHER 
  STREAMS WITHIN AND NEAR THE COWLITZ RIVER BASIN.

$$

WAC041-161338-
/O.NEW.KSEW.FL.W.0009.110117T1556Z-110118T0558Z/
/MAYW1.1.ER.110117T1556Z.110117T1800Z.110117T2058Z.NO/
838 PM PST SAT JAN 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE COWLITZ RIVER BELOW MAYFIELD DAM
* FROM MONDAY MORNING TO MONDAY EVENING.
* AT  7:30 PM SATURDAY THE FLOW WAS 14320 CFS.
* FLOOD FLOW IS 25000 CFS. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD FLOW AROUND 8 AM MONDAY 
  AND CREST NEAR 28150 CFS AROUND 10 AM MONDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD FLOW MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 25000 CFS...THE COWLITZ RIVER WILL FLOOD THE REACH FROM 
  MAYFIELD DAM DOWNSTREAM THROUGH TOLEDO. FLOOD WATERS WILL INUNDATE 
  SOME FARMLANDS AND SEVERAL ROADS...MAINLY NEAR TOLEDO.

$$
BURKE
WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

4 follow-up statements

047 
WGUS86 KSEW 160712
FLSSEW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1112 PM PST SAT JAN 15 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS ENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WASHINGTON...
 
  COWLITZ RIVER BELOW MAYFIELD DAM AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY.
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WASHINGTON...
 
  PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING AFFECTING PIERCE COUNTY. 
  COWLITZ RIVER AT PACKWOOD AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
  COWLITZ RIVER AT RANDLE AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
  CARBON RIVER NEAR FAIRFAX AFFECTING PIERCE COUNTY. 
  NISQUALLY RIVER NEAR NATIONAL AFFECTING LEWIS AND PIERCE COUNTIES.
  DESCHUTES RIVER NEAR RAINIER AFFECTING THURSTON COUNTY. 
 
.FLOOD BULLETIN NO. 9

                SOUTH WEST REGION

AN EARLIER FORECAST FOR THE COWLITZ RIVER BELOW MAYFIELD DAM DID NOT
CORRECTLY ACCOUNT FOR DAM OPERATIONS PRIOR TO THE HIGHEST FLOWS. AFTER
FIXING THIS ERROR IT NOW APPEARS THE COWLITZ RIVER WILL NOT FLOOD
BELOW MAYFIELD DAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS...VANS...OR TRUCKS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...THIS IS 
THE CAUSE OF MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS IN WASHINGTON. BE ALERT FOR 
RAPID CHANGES AND MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA.

&&

WAC053-161512-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0003.110116T2138Z-110118T0031Z/
/FFXW1.1.ER.110116T2138Z.110117T0600Z.110117T1531Z.NO/
1112 PM PST SAT JAN 15 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CARBON RIVER NEAR FAIRFAX
* FROM 2 PM SUNDAY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 11:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 2 PM SUNDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 14.1 FEET AROUND 10 PM SUNDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.5 FEET...THE CARBON RIVER WILL FLOOD THE RESIDENTIAL 
  AREAS NEAR CROCKER AND SECTIONS OF THE CARBON RIVER RD

$$

WAC053-161512-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0004.110116T0927Z-110118T1721Z/
/ORTW1.1.ER.110116T0927Z.110117T0000Z.110118T0821Z.NO/
1112 PM PST SAT JAN 15 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING
* FROM 1 AM SUNDAY UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT  9:45 PM SATURDAY THE FLOW WAS 2226 CFS. 
* FLOOD FLOW IS 4500 CFS. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD FLOW AROUND 4 AM SUNDAY. 
  THE RIVER WILL PROBABLY RISE TO 9000 CFS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD
  CREST AS HIGH AS 11000 CFS AROUND 4 PM SUNDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD FLOW EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 9000 CFS...THE PUYALLUP RIVER WILL FLOOD SEVERAL 
  RESIDENTIAL AREAS NEAR ORTING WHERE LEVEES REMAIN DAMAGED FROM 
  FLOODING IN RECENT YEARS.

$$

WAC041-053-161512-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0005.110116T1924Z-110118T1249Z/
/NISW1.2.ER.110116T1924Z.110117T0600Z.110118T0349Z.NO/
1112 PM PST SAT JAN 15 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NISQUALLY RIVER NEAR NATIONAL
* FROM 11 AM SUNDAY UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
* AT 10:00 PM SATURDAY THE FLOW WAS 2777 CFS. 
* FLOOD FLOW IS 8000 CFS. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD FLOW AROUND 11 AM SUNDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 10710 CFS AROUND 10 PM SUNDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD FLOW MONDAY EVENING.

$$

WAC067-161511-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0006.110116T1633Z-110118T0627Z/
/DSRW1.1.ER.110116T1633Z.110117T0600Z.110117T2127Z.NO/
1112 PM PST SAT JAN 15 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DESCHUTES RIVER NEAR RAINIER
* FROM 9 AM SUNDAY UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT 10:45 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 9 AM SUNDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 13.0 FEET AROUND 10 PM SUNDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...THE DESCHUTES RIVER WILL FLOOD DOWNSTREAM IN
  TUMWATER VALLEY INCLUDING THE GOLF COURSE.  MINOR FLOODING WILL 
  ALSO OCCUR IN SEVERAL RESIDENTIAL AREAS...MAINLY COUGAR MOUNTAIN 
  AND DRIFTWOOD VALLEY. MANY ROADS AND FARM LANDS WILL ALSO BE 
  FLOODED.

$$

WAC041-161511-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0007.110117T0330Z-110117T1857Z/
/PACW1.1.ER.110117T0330Z.110117T0600Z.110117T0957Z.NO/
1112 PM PST SAT JAN 15 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE COWLITZ RIVER AT PACKWOOD
* FROM 7 PM SUNDAY UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 10:30 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 7 PM SUNDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 10.8 FEET AROUND 10 PM SUNDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...THE COWLITZ RIVER WILL CAUSE FLOODING FROM 
  THE UPPER REACHES OF THE RIVER DOWNSTREAM THROUGH PACKWOOD...
  INUNDATING ROADS...PASTURE LANDS...AND SOME FARMS.

$$

WAC041-161511-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0008.110116T1427Z-110119T0916Z/
/RAWW1.3.ER.110116T1427Z.110117T1200Z.110119T0016Z.NO/
1112 PM PST SAT JAN 15 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE COWLITZ RIVER AT RANDLE
* FROM 6 AM SUNDAY UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
* AT 10:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 6 AM SUNDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 23.8 FEET AROUND 4 AM MONDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...THE COWLITZ RIVER WILL CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING 
  FROM THE VICINITY OF RANDLE DOWNSTREAM THROUGH RIFFE LAKE...WITH 
  DANGEROUS INUNDATION OF MANY ROADS INCLUDING US HIGHWAY 12...
  RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL AREAS...AND FARMS.  FLOODING WILL OCCUR 
  ALL ALONG THE RIVER INCLUDING HEADWATERS...TRIBUTARIES...AND OTHER 
  STREAMS WITHIN AND NEAR THE COWLITZ RIVER BASIN.

$$

WAC041-160742-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-110118T0558Z/
/MAYW1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1112 PM PST SAT JAN 15 2011

  THE COWLITZ RIVER BELOW MAYFIELD DAM
* AT 10:30 PM SATURDAY THE FLOW WAS 14260 CFS. 
* FLOOD FLOW IS 25000 CFS. 
* NO FLOODING IS FORECAST. THE RIVER WILL CREST AROUND 21000 CFS ON
  MONDAY AFTERNOON.

$$
BURKE
WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

945 
WGUS86 KSEW 161104
FLSSEW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
304 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WASHINGTON...
 
  SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH AFFECTING MASON COUNTY. 
  CARBON RIVER NEAR FAIRFAX AFFECTING PIERCE COUNTY. 
  PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING AFFECTING PIERCE COUNTY. 
  NISQUALLY RIVER NEAR NATIONAL AFFECTING LEWIS AND PIERCE COUNTIES. 
  DESCHUTES RIVER NEAR RAINIER AFFECTING THURSTON COUNTY. 
  COWLITZ RIVER AT PACKWOOD AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
  COWLITZ RIVER AT RANDLE AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
 
.FLOOD BULLETIN NO. 12

                SOUTH WEST REGION

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CASCADES
CENTERED AROUND MOUNT RAINIER. RIVERS FLOWING OFF MOUNT RAINIER ARE
ALL UNDER FLOOD WARNINGS AND WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TODAY. THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY WILL ALSO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TODAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS...VANS...OR TRUCKS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...THIS IS 
THE CAUSE OF MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS IN WASHINGTON. BE ALERT FOR 
RAPID CHANGES AND MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA.

&&

WAC045-161904-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110118T0300Z/
/SRPW1.1.ER.110114T1948Z.110117T0000Z.110117T1800Z.NO/
304 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH
* FROM 12 PM FRIDAY UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT  2:15 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 9 AM THIS
  MORNING AND CREST NEAR 16.9 FT AROUND 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL SLOWLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 16.5 FEET...THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD 
  FLOODING OF PASTURE LANDS...WITH WATER FLOWING QUICKLY OVER EAST 
  BOURGAULT ROAD AND SKOKOMISH VALLEY ROAD.

$$

WAC053-161904-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0003.110117T0322Z-110117T2145Z/
/FFXW1.1.ER.110117T0322Z.110117T0600Z.110117T1245Z.NO/
304 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CARBON RIVER NEAR FAIRFAX
* FROM 7 PM SUNDAY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  2:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 7 PM SUNDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 13.7 FEET AROUND 10 PM SUNDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.5 FEET...THE CARBON RIVER WILL FLOOD THE RESIDENTIAL 
  AREAS NEAR CROCKER AND SECTIONS OF THE CARBON RIVER RD

$$

WAC053-161904-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110118T1706Z/
/ORTW1.1.ER.110116T1037Z.110117T0000Z.110118T0806Z.NO/
304 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING
* FROM 3 AM SUNDAY UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT  1:45 AM SUNDAY THE FLOW WAS 3521 CFS. 
* FLOOD FLOW IS 4500 CFS. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD FLOW AROUND 5 AM SUNDAY 
  AND CREST NEAR 10000 CFS AROUND 4 PM SUNDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD FLOW EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 9000 CFS...THE PUYALLUP RIVER WILL FLOOD SEVERAL 
  RESIDENTIAL AREAS NEAR ORTING WHERE LEVEES REMAIN DAMAGED FROM 
  FLOODING IN RECENT YEARS.

$$

WAC041-053-161904-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0005.110116T1846Z-110118T1233Z/
/NISW1.2.ER.110116T1846Z.110117T0600Z.110118T0333Z.NO/
304 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NISQUALLY RIVER NEAR NATIONAL
* FROM 11 AM SUNDAY UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
* AT  2:00 AM SUNDAY THE FLOW WAS 4933 CFS. 
* FLOOD FLOW IS 8000 CFS. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD FLOW AROUND 11 AM SUNDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 10000 CFS AROUND 10 PM SUNDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD FLOW MONDAY EVENING.

$$

WAC067-161903-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0006.110117T0707Z-110117T2321Z/
/DSRW1.1.ER.110117T0707Z.110117T1200Z.110117T1421Z.NO/
304 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DESCHUTES RIVER NEAR RAINIER
* FROM 11 PM SUNDAY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  1:45 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 11 PM 
  SUNDAY AND CREST NEAR 11.1 FEET AROUND 4 AM MONDAY. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...THE DESCHUTES RIVER WILL FLOOD DOWNSTREAM IN
  TUMWATER VALLEY INCLUDING THE GOLF COURSE.  MINOR FLOODING WILL 
  ALSO OCCUR IN SEVERAL RESIDENTIAL AREAS...MAINLY COUGAR MOUNTAIN 
  AND DRIFTWOOD VALLEY. MANY ROADS AND FARM LANDS WILL ALSO BE 
  FLOODED.

$$

WAC041-161903-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0007.110116T2351Z-110118T0451Z/
/PACW1.2.ER.110116T2351Z.110117T0600Z.110117T1951Z.NO/
304 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE COWLITZ RIVER AT PACKWOOD
* FROM 4 PM SUNDAY UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT  2:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND NOON SUNDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 11.4 FEET AROUND 10 PM SUNDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY LATE MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...THE COWLITZ RIVER WILL CAUSE FLOODING FROM 
  THE UPPER REACHES OF THE RIVER DOWNSTREAM THROUGH PACKWOOD...
  INUNDATING ROADS...PASTURE LANDS...AND SOME FARMS.

$$

WAC041-161903-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0008.110116T1427Z-110119T0916Z/
/RAWW1.3.ER.110116T1427Z.110117T1200Z.110119T0016Z.NO/
304 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE COWLITZ RIVER AT RANDLE
* FROM 6 AM SUNDAY UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
* AT  2:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 7 AM SUNDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 23.8 FEET AROUND 4 AM MONDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...THE COWLITZ RIVER WILL CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING 
  FROM THE VICINITY OF RANDLE DOWNSTREAM THROUGH RIFFE LAKE...WITH 
  DANGEROUS INUNDATION OF MANY ROADS INCLUDING US HIGHWAY 12...
  RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL AREAS...AND FARMS.  FLOODING WILL OCCUR 
  ALL ALONG THE RIVER INCLUDING HEADWATERS...TRIBUTARIES...AND OTHER 
  STREAMS WITHIN AND NEAR THE COWLITZ RIVER BASIN.

$$
BURKE
WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

799 
WGUS86 KSEW 161913
FLSSEW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1113 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WASHINGTON...
 
  CARBON RIVER NEAR FAIRFAX AFFECTING PIERCE COUNTY. 
  PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING AFFECTING PIERCE COUNTY. 
  NISQUALLY RIVER NEAR NATIONAL AFFECTING LEWIS AND PIERCE COUNTIES. 
  COWLITZ RIVER AT PACKWOOD AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
  NEWAUKUM R NR CHEHALIS AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
  DESCHUTES RIVER NEAR RAINIER AFFECTING THURSTON COUNTY. 
  COWLITZ RIVER AT RANDLE AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
 
.FLOOD BULLETIN NO. 20

                SOUTH WEST REGION

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND RIVERS ARE STILL RISING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS...VANS...OR TRUCKS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...THIS IS 
THE CAUSE OF MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS IN WASHINGTON. BE ALERT FOR 
RAPID CHANGES AND MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA.

&&

WAC053-170313-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0003.110116T2305Z-110117T1215Z/
/FFXW1.1.ER.110116T2305Z.110117T0000Z.110117T0315Z.NO/
1113 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CARBON RIVER NEAR FAIRFAX
* FROM 3 PM SUNDAY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 11:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 3 PM SUNDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 13.6 FEET AROUND 4 PM SUNDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.5 FEET...THE CARBON RIVER WILL FLOOD THE RESIDENTIAL 
  AREAS NEAR CROCKER AND SECTIONS OF THE CARBON RIVER RD

$$

WAC053-170313-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110118T2120Z/
/ORTW1.1.ER.110116T1027Z.110117T0000Z.110118T1220Z.NO/
1113 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 
* AT  9:45 AM SUNDAY THE FLOW WAS 5640 CFS. 
* FLOOD FLOW IS 4500 CFS. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 10400 CFS
  AROUND 4 PM SUNDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD FLOW EARLY 
  TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 9000 CFS...THE PUYALLUP RIVER WILL FLOOD SEVERAL 
  RESIDENTIAL AREAS NEAR ORTING WHERE LEVEES REMAIN DAMAGED FROM 
  FLOODING IN RECENT YEARS.

$$

WAC041-053-170312-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110118T1516Z/
/NISW1.2.ER.110116T1845Z.110117T0600Z.110118T0616Z.NO/
1113 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NISQUALLY RIVER NEAR NATIONAL
* FROM 11 AM SUNDAY UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 10:00 AM SUNDAY THE FLOW WAS 7691 CFS. 
* FLOOD FLOW IS 8000 CFS. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD FLOW AROUND 11 AM SUNDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 10490 CFS AROUND 10 PM SUNDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD FLOW MONDAY NIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT THE NISQUALLY RIVER WILL FLOOD ALONG THE UPPER REACHES
OF THE RIVER FROM MT RAINIER NATIONAL PARK DOWNSTREAM TO ALDER LAKE.
SWIFT WATERS WILL FLOOD ROADS...PASTURE LANDS...AND FARMS. EROSION
MAY DAMAGE THE RIVER BANKS.

$$

WAC067-170312-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110117T2321Z/
/DSRW1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1113 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DESCHUTES RIVER NEAR RAINIER
* UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. 
* AT 10:45 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* NO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE AROUND 3 AM MONDAY MORNING
  AND THEN BEGIN TO FALL.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...THE DESCHUTES RIVER WILL FLOOD DOWNSTREAM
  IN TUMWATER VALLEY INCLUDING THE GOLF COURSE.  MINOR FLOODING WILL 
  ALSO OCCUR IN SEVERAL RESIDENTIAL AREAS...MAINLY COUGAR MOUNTAIN 
  AND DRIFTWOOD VALLEY. MANY ROADS AND FARM LANDS WILL ALSO BE 
  FLOODED.

$$

WAC041-170312-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0007.110116T2000Z-110118T0451Z/
/PACW1.2.ER.110116T2000Z.110117T0600Z.110117T1951Z.NO/
1113 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE COWLITZ RIVER AT PACKWOOD
* FROM 12 PM SUNDAY UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT 10:45 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 12 PM 
  SUNDAY AND CREST NEAR 11.4 FEET AROUND 10 PM SUNDAY. THE RIVER WILL
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY LATE MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...THE COWLITZ RIVER WILL CAUSE FLOODING FROM 
  THE UPPER REACHES OF THE RIVER DOWNSTREAM THROUGH PACKWOOD...
  INUNDATING ROADS...PASTURE LANDS...AND SOME FARMS.

$$

WAC041-170312-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110119T0916Z/
/RAWW1.3.ER.110116T1706Z.110117T1200Z.110119T0016Z.NO/
1113 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE COWLITZ RIVER AT RANDLE
* UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. 
* AT 10:45 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 23.8 FEET
  AROUND 4 AM MONDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY 
  AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...THE COWLITZ RIVER WILL CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING 
  FROM THE VICINITY OF RANDLE DOWNSTREAM THROUGH RIFFE LAKE...WITH 
  DANGEROUS INUNDATION OF MANY ROADS INCLUDING US HIGHWAY 12...
  RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL AREAS...AND FARMS.  FLOODING WILL OCCUR 
  ALL ALONG THE RIVER INCLUDING HEADWATERS...TRIBUTARIES...AND OTHER 
  STREAMS WITHIN AND NEAR THE COWLITZ RIVER BASIN.

$$

WAC041-170312-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0019.110117T0412Z-110117T2100Z/
/NEWW1.1.ER.110117T0412Z.110117T0900Z.110117T1200Z.NO/
1113 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEWAUKUM R NR CHEHALIS
* FROM 8 PM SUNDAY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 10:45 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 8 PM SUNDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 10.6 FEET AROUND 1 AM MONDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.5 FEET...FLOOD WATERS WILL INUNDATE MANY ROADS AND 
  RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL AREAS ALONG THE NEWAUKUM RIVER AND ITS 
  FORKS.  FLOODING IN SOME AREAS MAY BE DEEP AND HAZARDOUS ESPECIALLY
  NEAR RIVERS. IMPACTED ROADWAYS AND SURROUNDING AREAS INCLUDE 
  JACKSON HWY. AND TUNE...RUSH...SOMMERVILLE...GRIEL...HAMILTON...
  TAUSCHER...GUERRIER...KIRKLAND...MACOMBER...RICE...SENN...LUCAS 
  CREEK...MIDDLE FORK AND NORTH FORK ROADS.  A STAGE OF 10.5 ON THE 
  NEWAUKUM ROUGHLY CORRESPONDS TO PHASE 2 FLOOD IN THE LEWIS COUNTY 
  FLOOD SYSTEM.

$$

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

056 
WGUS86 KSEW 170251
FLSSEW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
651 PM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS ENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WASHINGTON...
 
  CARBON RIVER NEAR FAIRFAX AFFECTING PIERCE COUNTY.
  DESCHUTES RIVER NEAR RAINIER AFFECTING THURSTON COUNTY.
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WASHINGTON...
 
  PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING AFFECTING PIERCE COUNTY. 
  COWLITZ RIVER AT RANDLE AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
  SKOOKUMCHUCK RIVER NEAR BUCODA AFFECTING LEWIS AND THURSTON 
  COUNTIES. 
  NEWAUKUM R NR CHEHALIS AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
  NISQUALLY RIVER NEAR NATIONAL AFFECTING LEWIS AND PIERCE COUNTIES.
  COWLITZ RIVER AT PACKWOOD AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
  CHEHALIS RIVER NEAR GRAND MOUND AFFECTING THURSTON COUNTY. 
 
.FLOOD BULLETIN NO. 31

                SOUTH WEST REGION

HEAVY RAIN ENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CASCADES THIS MORNING. MOST 
RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE FALLING THOUGH LOWER REACHES OF SOME
LONGER RIVERS ARE STILL RISING. MOST FLOODING HAS BEEN MINOR. THE 
COWLITZ RIVER NEAR RANDLE WILL HAVE MAJOR FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS...VANS...OR TRUCKS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...THIS IS 
THE CAUSE OF MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS IN WASHINGTON. BE ALERT FOR 
RAPID CHANGES AND MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA.

&&

WAC053-170321-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110117T1215Z/
/FFXW1.1.ER.110116T2113Z.110116T2115Z.110116T2116Z.NO/
651 PM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING HAS ENDED FOR
  THE CARBON RIVER NEAR FAIRFAX
* AT  6:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.5 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE  1:16 PM SUNDAY EARLY 
  THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...THE CARBON RIVER WILL LOCALLY SPILL OUT OF 
  ITS BANKS INTO NEARBY FIELDS AND OVER THE CARBON RIVER RD...
  INCLUDING INSIDE RAINIER NATIONAL PARK

$$

WAC053-171051-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110118T1846Z/
/ORTW1.1.ER.110116T1027Z.110117T1800Z.110118T0946Z.NO/
651 PM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. 
* AT  5:45 PM SUNDAY THE FLOW WAS 6177 CFS. 
* FLOOD FLOW IS 4500 CFS. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD FLOW EARLY MONDAY
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 4500 CFS...THE PUYALLUP RIVER WILL FLOOD SOME AREAS 
  ALONG THE UPPER PUYALLUP RIVER ABOVE ORTING.  AREAS INCLUDE BUT ARE
  NOT LIMITED TO THE NEADHAM ROAD VICINITY...ORVILLE ROAD EAST 
  VICINITY IN AREAS SOUTH OF BROOKS ROAD EAST AND NORTH OF ELECTRON 
  ROAD...AND THE COUNTRY SUBDIVISION/TOMOLLA TREE FARM VICINITY.

$$

WAC041-053-171051-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110118T1516Z/
/NISW1.2.ER.110117T0128Z.110117T0600Z.110118T0616Z.NO/
651 PM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NISQUALLY RIVER NEAR NATIONAL
* FROM 5 PM SUNDAY UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT  6:00 PM SUNDAY THE FLOW WAS 7887 CFS. 
* FLOOD FLOW IS 8000 CFS. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE TONIGHT.

$$

WAC067-170321-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110117T2321Z/
/DSRW1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
651 PM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE DESCHUTES RIVER NEAR RAINIER
* AT  5:45 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...THE DESCHUTES RIVER LOCALLY SPILLS OVER ITS 
  BANKS INTO LOW FIELDS AND FORESTED LANDS, MAINLY ALONG VAIL CUTOFF 
  ROAD AND REICHEL ROAD (EAST OF THE TOWN OF VAIL).

$$

WAC041-171051-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110117T1200Z/
/PACW1.1.ER.110116T2224Z.000000T0000Z.110116T2322Z.NO/
651 PM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE COWLITZ RIVER AT PACKWOOD
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. 
* AT  6:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  3:22 PM SUNDAY AND 
  WILL CONTINUE TO FALL.  FLOODING WILL CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS UNTIL 
  THE FLOOD WAVE HAS COMPLETELY PASSED DOWNSTREAM.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...THE COWLITZ RIVER WILL SPILL OVER ITS BANKS 
  INTO NEARBY LOW PASTURE LANDS FROM THE UPPER REACHES DOWNSTREAM 
  THROUGH PACKWOOD.

$$

WAC041-171050-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110119T0614Z/
/RAWW1.3.ER.110116T1706Z.110117T1200Z.110118T2114Z.NO/
651 PM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE COWLITZ RIVER AT RANDLE
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. 
* AT  6:15 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 22.5 FEET
  AROUND 4 AM MONDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY TUESDAY 
  AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...THE COWLITZ RIVER WILL CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING 
  FROM THE VICINITY OF RANDLE DOWNSTREAM THROUGH RIFFE LAKE...WITH 
  DANGEROUS INUNDATION OF MANY ROADS INCLUDING US HIGHWAY 12...
  RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL AREAS...AND FARMS.  FLOODING WILL OCCUR 
  ALL ALONG THE RIVER INCLUDING HEADWATERS...TRIBUTARIES...AND OTHER 
  STREAMS WITHIN AND NEAR THE COWLITZ RIVER BASIN.

$$

WAC041-067-171050-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-110118T0602Z/
/BCDW1.1.ER.110117T0217Z.110117T1200Z.110117T2102Z.NO/
651 PM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SKOOKUMCHUCK RIVER NEAR BUCODA
* FROM 6 PM SUNDAY UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT  5:45 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 7 PM SUNDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 14.9 FEET AROUND 4 AM MONDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 13.5 FEET...THE SKOOKUMCHUCK RIVER IN THURSTON COUNTY 
  WILL FLOOD A FEW ROADS AND LOW PASTURE LANDS NEAR BUCODA.

$$

WAC041-171050-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0019.110117T0236Z-110117T1925Z/
/NEWW1.1.ER.110116T2315Z.110117T0145Z.110117T1025Z.NO/
651 PM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEWAUKUM R NR CHEHALIS
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. 
* AT  5:45 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED AT 10.9 FEET AT 6 PM SUNDAY AND WILL 
  CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.5 FEET...FLOOD WATERS WILL INUNDATE MANY ROADS AND 
  RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL AREAS ALONG THE NEWAUKUM RIVER AND ITS 
  FORKS.  FLOODING IN SOME AREAS MAY BE DEEP AND HAZARDOUS ESPECIALLY
  NEAR RIVERS. IMPACTED ROADWAYS AND SURROUNDING AREAS INCLUDE 
  JACKSON HWY. AND TUNE...RUSH...SOMMERVILLE...GRIEL...HAMILTON...
  TAUSCHER...GUERRIER...KIRKLAND...MACOMBER...RICE...SENN...LUCAS 
  CREEK...MIDDLE FORK AND NORTH FORK ROADS.  A STAGE OF 10.5 ON THE 
  NEWAUKUM ROUGHLY CORRESPONDS TO PHASE 2 FLOOD IN THE LEWIS COUNTY 
  FLOOD SYSTEM.

$$

WAC067-171050-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0024.110117T1045Z-110118T2256Z/
/CGMW1.1.ER.110117T1045Z.110118T0000Z.110118T1356Z.NO/
651 PM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CHEHALIS RIVER NEAR GRAND MOUND
* FROM 3 AM MONDAY UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  6:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 3 AM MONDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 15.1 FEET AROUND 4 PM MONDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...THE CHEHALIS RIVER IN THURSTON COUNTY WILL 
  FLOOD SEVERAL ROADS IN INDEPENDENCE VALLEY INCLUDING JAMES ROAD...
  INDEPENDENCE ROAD AND MOON ROAD. FLOOD WATERS WILL ALSO COVER 
  NEARBY FARM LANDS.

$$
BURKE
WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Jan 15, 7:20 PM PST, 1 hour 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 15, 7:20 PM PST, 1 hour 18 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
720 PM PST SAT JAN 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG WET FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
THERE IS A RISK OF FLOODING ON MANY WESTERN WASHINGTON RIVERS.
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO RIVER FORECASTS AND WARNINGS. THE SNOW LEVEL
WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO PASS LEVEL ON MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS IS AN UPDATED FORECAST DISCUSSION...AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE REGULAR ISSUANCE BY 930PM. THE LEADING EDGE OF A
WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHED INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING. THE
WET SNOW AT STEVENS PASS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY TURN TO RAIN AND
THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE...TO AS HIGH AS 8000 FEET ON MT RAINIER
WHERE PARADISE HAS ALREADY RECEIVED 0.8 INCHES ENDING AT 6PM...1
INCH AT THE WHITE RIVER RS...AND 1.3 AT CRYSTAL MOUNTAIN NWAC
STATION. AMOUNTS IN THE OLYMPICS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 0.8 AT
HUMPTULIPS. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES UP BY VANCOUVER
ISLAND...POSSIBLY DUE TO SLANTWISE INSTABILITY. I DO NOT THINK THERE
WILL BE MORE THAN A STRIKE OR TWO NEAR THE NORTH COAST AND DO NOT
EXPECT TO UPDATE THE FCST FOR THAT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
INCREASING AS THE SLP HAS BEEN FALLING RAPIDLY OVER NW WA THIS
EVENING. PRES HAS ALSO BEEN FALLING NEAR THE CHARLOTTES WHERE THE
PARENT LOW WILL TRACK OVERNIGHT. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME
MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO THE WINDS...IT SHOULD BE WINDY AT TIMES IN
THE PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL AREA...UP INTO ADMIRALTY INLET...AND
IT WILL BE WINDY ON THE COAST. PDX-BLI GRADIENT WILL RISE TO ARND
+8MB AND STAY THERE THRU SUN NITE. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER
THE GRADIENT REMAINING RATHER BLUSTERY INTO MONDAY. THE PREVIOUS
FNTL SYS GAVE WINDY AREAS FROM NORTH SEATTLE TO EVERETT FRI
EVENING...THAT OCCURRED AS THE DOWNSLOPE CLEARING OCCURRED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE LEE OF THE OLYMPICS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE AS WINDS
MIX DOWN AGAIN FOLLOWING THIS SHORTWAVE THAT WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE METRO AREA SUN OR SUN NITE.

IT WILL BE WARM WET AND WINDY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE FCST HAS 40 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ON THE RIDGES...AND THE WORST OF THAT SHOULD
PEAK AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE WARMEST WETTEST PTN OF THE FNTL SYS
WILL BE OVER OREGON BY SUNDAY EVENING...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
TAPER OFF ONLY SLOWLY LATE SUN EVENING. THE QPF RAINFALL WAS UPDATED
FOR HEAVIER PRECIP INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION
BELOW. 19

.LONG TERM...A MORE ORGANIZED FNTL WILL PROBABLY NOT OCCUR LATER ON
TUESDAY IF THE 00Z RUNS ARE CORRECT. THE PREVIOUS RUNS HAD SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT AND THE 18Z NAM HAD A 1010MB LOW OVER SEATTLE TUE
EVENING WITH THE OTH-SEA GRADIENT +11MB...THIS HAS NOT CARRIED OVER
INTO THE 00Z RUN WHICH HAS LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AT ALL AND THE OTH-SEA
GRADIENT +2MB...WHAT A DIFFERENCE. IT IS LIKELY TO BE DRY
MIDWEEK...THEN LATER THU OR FRI A WARM FRONT WILL PROBABLY REACH THE
AREA. NO CHANGE TO THE FCSTS FOR NEXT WEEK MUCH MORE CONCERNED WITH
THE SHORT TERM FOR NOW. POPS PROBABLY DO NOT NEED TO BE HIGHER FOR
PM TUE AS I HAD SAID IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. A WARM FRONT
ARRIVES LATER IN THE WEEK. 19

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT SAN JUAN AND ISLAND COUNTIES. A VERY WET FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE OVER WRN WA TNGT AND SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE SOUTH
OVER OREGON BY MONDAY...BUT SUNDAY EVENING IS LIKELY TO BE WETTER
AND FORECASTS WERE ALREADY ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WETTER 18Z
GLOBAL MODELS. THE FRONT IS TAPPED INTO TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND AN UNUSUALLY HIGH FREEZING LEVEL.

CURRENT RAINFALL WILL BRING A NUMBER OF RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THE PROFILER AND SATELLITE PRECIP ESTIMATES CONFIRM AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT THINGS
IS THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WITH THE RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ON MOST MAIN
STEM RIVERS IN WESTERN WASHINGTON.

ON THE SECTION OF THE MIDDLE GREEN RIVER BASIN THAT IS NOT PROTECTED
BY LEVEES...THE RURAL PORTION OF THE RIVER UPSTREAM FROM AUBURN TO
HOWARD HANSON DAM...THERE IS A THREAT OF MINOR FLOODING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MINOR FLOODING HAS OCCURRED IN THE MIDDLE SECTION OF
THE GREEN RIVER BASIN IN RECENT EVENTS. THIS IS NOT UNUSUAL. WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING ON THE LOWER PORTION OF THE GREEN RIVER
BASIN AFFECTING URBAN AREAS BELOW THE AUBURN GAUGE.

IN ADDITION THE HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND COMBINED WITH SATURATED
SOILS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MORE LANDSLIDES...AND WE WILL REFRESH
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ABOUT THAT OVERNIGHT. THE RIVERS WILL
RECEDE STARTING AROUND MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. 19

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS WRN WA THIS EVENING
WITH VERY STRONG SLY FLOW DEVELOPING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SAG SE ACROSS THE AREA SUN
MORNING WITH STRONG WLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. MOIST CONDITIONS AT
ALL LEVELS AND STABLE...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE SUN AFTERNOON.

KSEA...SE WIND 5-10 KT...BECOMING S 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT BY
06Z. DTM

&&

.MARINE...STRONG SLY GRADIENTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH
GALE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY THE W ENTRANCE.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ACROSS THE INLAND
WATERS. HOWEVER...A MESO LOW EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR ADMIRALTY INLET
MAY INDUCE GALE FORCE SOUTHERLIES FROM S ADMIRALTY INLET TO PUGET
SOUND AND HOOD CANAL TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG BUT EASE
SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUN MORNING. A MODERATE TO STRONG WLY
PUSH DOWN THE STRAIT MAY PRODUCE STRONGER WLY WINDS CENTRAL/E STRAIT
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DTM

&&

.AVALANCHE...THE NEXT WARM FRONT SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
OLYMPICS AND CASCADES STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AND MOSTLY
HEAVY RAIN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE
CASCADE CREST.

THE RAIN SHOULD CAUSE FURTHER LOADING AND WEAKENING OF LAYERS IN THE
UPPER SNOW PACK. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A PERIOD OF NATURAL OR TRIGGERED
WET LOOSE OR WET SLAB AVALANCHES. INITIALLY SHALLOW AVALANCHES MAY
TRIGGER OR ENTRAIN SNOW AND CAUSE LARGER AVALANCHES TO DEEPER
LAYERS. BACK COUNTRY TRAVEL IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS NOT RECOMMENDED
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN AVALANCHE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

PLEASE VISIT NWAC.US FOR DETAILS. FERBER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND/OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
     FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE
     TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...SOUTH ADMIRALTY INLET
     ...AND PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jan 15, 7:36 PM PST, 1 hour 2 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
736 PM PST SAT JAN 15 2011

WAZ001-503>519-162330-
SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-
EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-
EVERETT AND VICINITY-SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREA-TACOMA AREA-
ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-
OLYMPICS-EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTH COAST-CENTRAL COAST-
WEST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES AND PASSES-
WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-
736 PM PST SAT JAN 15 2011

A NEW ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL PUSH THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON
TONIGHT AND RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RAIN WILL LEAD TO
LOCALIZED SOIL INSTABILITIES AND AN INCREASED RISK OF LANDSLIDES. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT THE TOTAL CUMULATIVE RAINFALL IN WESTERN WASHINGTON MAY
EXCEED A USGS LANDSLIDE CUMULATIVE THRESHOLD INDEX WHICH IS AN
INDICATOR FOR LANDSLIDE RISK.

RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE WHEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXCEED TWO INCHES IN 24 HOURS...AND THIS IS LIKELY IN THE PUGET
SOUND LOWLANDS FROM THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE RISK OF LANDSLIDES WILL
DIMINISH AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AFTER A COUPLE OF FAIRLY DRY
DAYS OCCUR.

WHILE THE USGS RAINFALL THRESHOLDS WERE DESIGNED FOR THE SEATTLE
AREA OF THE PUGET SOUND...MANY HILLY AREAS IN THE LOWLANDS OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO LANDSLIDES CAUSED BY
EXCESSIVELY WET SOILS. THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE REGIONS FOR LANDSLIDES
ARE STEEP COASTAL BLUFFS AND HILLSIDES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT CURRENT CONDITIONS...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE...SELECT HYDROLOGY...AND THEN SCROLL DOWN
FOR THE LINK TO THE USGS LANDSLIDE INFORMATION PAGE.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

Special weather statement, Jan 15, 8:10 PM PST, 28 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
810 PM PST SAT JAN 15 2011

WAZ001-503>519-162345-
SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-
EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-
EVERETT AND VICINITY-SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREA-TACOMA AREA-
ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-
OLYMPICS-EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTH COAST-CENTRAL COAST-
WEST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES AND PASSES-
WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-
810 PM PST SAT JAN 15 2011

A NEW ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL PUSH THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON
TONIGHT AND RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RAIN WILL LEAD TO
LOCALIZED SOIL INSTABILITIES AND AN INCREASED RISK OF LANDSLIDES. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT THE TOTAL CUMULATIVE RAINFALL IN WESTERN WASHINGTON MAY
EXCEED A USGS LANDSLIDE THRESHOLD INDEX WHICH IS AN RISK INDICATOR
FOR LANDSLIDES.

RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE WHEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXCEED TWO INCHES IN 24 HOURS...AND THIS IS LIKELY ON THE
COAST...OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...AND IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
MOUNTAINS. LESS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS
WHERE 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY. THE RISK OF LANDSLIDES
WILL DIMINISH AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AFTER A COUPLE OF
FAIRLY DRY DAYS OCCUR.

WHILE THE USGS RAINFALL THRESHOLDS WERE DESIGNED FOR THE SEATTLE
AREA OF THE PUGET SOUND...MANY HILLY AREAS IN THE LOWLANDS OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO LANDSLIDES CAUSED BY
EXCESSIVELY WET SOILS. THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE REGIONS FOR LANDSLIDES
ARE STEEP COASTAL BLUFFS AND HILLSIDES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT CURRENT CONDITIONS...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE...SELECT HYDROLOGY...AND THEN SCROLL DOWN
FOR THE LINK TO THE USGS LANDSLIDE INFORMATION PAGE.

CORRECTED THE AREA IN THE LOWLANDS WHICH RECEIVES THE HEAVIEST
RAIN...TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY IN AREAS NOT RAINSHADOWED BY THE
OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS.

19

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Seattle, WA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 15, 8:04 PM PST	Areal Flood Warning	SEW	Grays Harbor, Lewis, Mason, Thurston	18 hr
Jan 15, 8:38 PM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Pierce	39 hr
Jan 15, 8:38 PM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Lewis, Pierce	28 hr
Jan 15, 8:38 PM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Thurston	22 hr
Jan 15, 8:38 PM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Lewis	28 hr
Jan 15, 8:38 PM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Lewis	3 days
Jan 15, 8:38 PM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Lewis	3 hr
Jan 16, 2:11 AM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Snohomish	50 hr
Jan 16, 2:11 AM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	King	17 hr
Jan 16, 2:11 AM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	King	55 hr
Jan 16, 3:05 AM PST	Small Craft Advisory	SEW		6 hr
Jan 16, 3:16 AM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	King	6 days
Jan 16, 6:15 AM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Snohomish	15 hr
Jan 16, 6:15 AM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Snohomish	15 hr
Jan 16, 6:15 AM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Snohomish	15 hr
Jan 16, 6:15 AM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Snohomish	69 hr
Jan 16, 6:15 AM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Snohomish	3 days
Jan 16, 6:23 AM PST	Areal Flood Warning	SEW	Snohomish	12 hr
Jan 16, 9:39 AM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Lewis	20 hr
Jan 16, 11:00 AM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Grays Harbor	24 hr
Jan 16, 12:05 PM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Skagit	33 hr
Jan 16, 12:05 PM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Lewis, Thurston	24 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Washington, 2011 Every river flood warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.