River Flood Warning 19, NWS Seattle, WA

799 
WGUS86 KSEW 161913
FLSSEW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1113 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WASHINGTON...
 
  CARBON RIVER NEAR FAIRFAX AFFECTING PIERCE COUNTY. 
  PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING AFFECTING PIERCE COUNTY. 
  NISQUALLY RIVER NEAR NATIONAL AFFECTING LEWIS AND PIERCE COUNTIES. 
  COWLITZ RIVER AT PACKWOOD AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
  NEWAUKUM R NR CHEHALIS AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
  DESCHUTES RIVER NEAR RAINIER AFFECTING THURSTON COUNTY. 
  COWLITZ RIVER AT RANDLE AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
 
.FLOOD BULLETIN NO. 20

                SOUTH WEST REGION

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND RIVERS ARE STILL RISING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS...VANS...OR TRUCKS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...THIS IS 
THE CAUSE OF MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS IN WASHINGTON. BE ALERT FOR 
RAPID CHANGES AND MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA.

&&

WAC053-170313-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0003.110116T2305Z-110117T1215Z/
/FFXW1.1.ER.110116T2305Z.110117T0000Z.110117T0315Z.NO/
1113 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CARBON RIVER NEAR FAIRFAX
* FROM 3 PM SUNDAY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 11:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 3 PM SUNDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 13.6 FEET AROUND 4 PM SUNDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.5 FEET...THE CARBON RIVER WILL FLOOD THE RESIDENTIAL 
  AREAS NEAR CROCKER AND SECTIONS OF THE CARBON RIVER RD

$$

WAC053-170313-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110118T2120Z/
/ORTW1.1.ER.110116T1027Z.110117T0000Z.110118T1220Z.NO/
1113 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 
* AT  9:45 AM SUNDAY THE FLOW WAS 5640 CFS. 
* FLOOD FLOW IS 4500 CFS. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 10400 CFS
  AROUND 4 PM SUNDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD FLOW EARLY 
  TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 9000 CFS...THE PUYALLUP RIVER WILL FLOOD SEVERAL 
  RESIDENTIAL AREAS NEAR ORTING WHERE LEVEES REMAIN DAMAGED FROM 
  FLOODING IN RECENT YEARS.

$$

WAC041-053-170312-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110118T1516Z/
/NISW1.2.ER.110116T1845Z.110117T0600Z.110118T0616Z.NO/
1113 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NISQUALLY RIVER NEAR NATIONAL
* FROM 11 AM SUNDAY UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 10:00 AM SUNDAY THE FLOW WAS 7691 CFS. 
* FLOOD FLOW IS 8000 CFS. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD FLOW AROUND 11 AM SUNDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 10490 CFS AROUND 10 PM SUNDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD FLOW MONDAY NIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT THE NISQUALLY RIVER WILL FLOOD ALONG THE UPPER REACHES
OF THE RIVER FROM MT RAINIER NATIONAL PARK DOWNSTREAM TO ALDER LAKE.
SWIFT WATERS WILL FLOOD ROADS...PASTURE LANDS...AND FARMS. EROSION
MAY DAMAGE THE RIVER BANKS.

$$

WAC067-170312-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110117T2321Z/
/DSRW1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1113 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DESCHUTES RIVER NEAR RAINIER
* UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. 
* AT 10:45 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* NO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE AROUND 3 AM MONDAY MORNING
  AND THEN BEGIN TO FALL.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...THE DESCHUTES RIVER WILL FLOOD DOWNSTREAM
  IN TUMWATER VALLEY INCLUDING THE GOLF COURSE.  MINOR FLOODING WILL 
  ALSO OCCUR IN SEVERAL RESIDENTIAL AREAS...MAINLY COUGAR MOUNTAIN 
  AND DRIFTWOOD VALLEY. MANY ROADS AND FARM LANDS WILL ALSO BE 
  FLOODED.

$$

WAC041-170312-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0007.110116T2000Z-110118T0451Z/
/PACW1.2.ER.110116T2000Z.110117T0600Z.110117T1951Z.NO/
1113 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE COWLITZ RIVER AT PACKWOOD
* FROM 12 PM SUNDAY UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT 10:45 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 12 PM 
  SUNDAY AND CREST NEAR 11.4 FEET AROUND 10 PM SUNDAY. THE RIVER WILL
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY LATE MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...THE COWLITZ RIVER WILL CAUSE FLOODING FROM 
  THE UPPER REACHES OF THE RIVER DOWNSTREAM THROUGH PACKWOOD...
  INUNDATING ROADS...PASTURE LANDS...AND SOME FARMS.

$$

WAC041-170312-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110119T0916Z/
/RAWW1.3.ER.110116T1706Z.110117T1200Z.110119T0016Z.NO/
1113 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE COWLITZ RIVER AT RANDLE
* UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. 
* AT 10:45 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 23.8 FEET
  AROUND 4 AM MONDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY 
  AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...THE COWLITZ RIVER WILL CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING 
  FROM THE VICINITY OF RANDLE DOWNSTREAM THROUGH RIFFE LAKE...WITH 
  DANGEROUS INUNDATION OF MANY ROADS INCLUDING US HIGHWAY 12...
  RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL AREAS...AND FARMS.  FLOODING WILL OCCUR 
  ALL ALONG THE RIVER INCLUDING HEADWATERS...TRIBUTARIES...AND OTHER 
  STREAMS WITHIN AND NEAR THE COWLITZ RIVER BASIN.

$$

WAC041-170312-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0019.110117T0412Z-110117T2100Z/
/NEWW1.1.ER.110117T0412Z.110117T0900Z.110117T1200Z.NO/
1113 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEWAUKUM R NR CHEHALIS
* FROM 8 PM SUNDAY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 10:45 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 8 PM SUNDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 10.6 FEET AROUND 1 AM MONDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.5 FEET...FLOOD WATERS WILL INUNDATE MANY ROADS AND 
  RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL AREAS ALONG THE NEWAUKUM RIVER AND ITS 
  FORKS.  FLOODING IN SOME AREAS MAY BE DEEP AND HAZARDOUS ESPECIALLY
  NEAR RIVERS. IMPACTED ROADWAYS AND SURROUNDING AREAS INCLUDE 
  JACKSON HWY. AND TUNE...RUSH...SOMMERVILLE...GRIEL...HAMILTON...
  TAUSCHER...GUERRIER...KIRKLAND...MACOMBER...RICE...SENN...LUCAS 
  CREEK...MIDDLE FORK AND NORTH FORK ROADS.  A STAGE OF 10.5 ON THE 
  NEWAUKUM ROUGHLY CORRESPONDS TO PHASE 2 FLOOD IN THE LEWIS COUNTY 
  FLOOD SYSTEM.

$$

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

056 
WGUS86 KSEW 170251
FLSSEW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
651 PM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS ENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WASHINGTON...
 
  CARBON RIVER NEAR FAIRFAX AFFECTING PIERCE COUNTY.
  DESCHUTES RIVER NEAR RAINIER AFFECTING THURSTON COUNTY.
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WASHINGTON...
 
  PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING AFFECTING PIERCE COUNTY. 
  COWLITZ RIVER AT RANDLE AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
  SKOOKUMCHUCK RIVER NEAR BUCODA AFFECTING LEWIS AND THURSTON 
  COUNTIES. 
  NEWAUKUM R NR CHEHALIS AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
  NISQUALLY RIVER NEAR NATIONAL AFFECTING LEWIS AND PIERCE COUNTIES.
  COWLITZ RIVER AT PACKWOOD AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
  CHEHALIS RIVER NEAR GRAND MOUND AFFECTING THURSTON COUNTY. 
 
.FLOOD BULLETIN NO. 31

                SOUTH WEST REGION

HEAVY RAIN ENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CASCADES THIS MORNING. MOST 
RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE FALLING THOUGH LOWER REACHES OF SOME
LONGER RIVERS ARE STILL RISING. MOST FLOODING HAS BEEN MINOR. THE 
COWLITZ RIVER NEAR RANDLE WILL HAVE MAJOR FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS...VANS...OR TRUCKS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...THIS IS 
THE CAUSE OF MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS IN WASHINGTON. BE ALERT FOR 
RAPID CHANGES AND MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA.

&&

WAC053-170321-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110117T1215Z/
/FFXW1.1.ER.110116T2113Z.110116T2115Z.110116T2116Z.NO/
651 PM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING HAS ENDED FOR
  THE CARBON RIVER NEAR FAIRFAX
* AT  6:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.5 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE  1:16 PM SUNDAY EARLY 
  THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...THE CARBON RIVER WILL LOCALLY SPILL OUT OF 
  ITS BANKS INTO NEARBY FIELDS AND OVER THE CARBON RIVER RD...
  INCLUDING INSIDE RAINIER NATIONAL PARK

$$

WAC053-171051-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110118T1846Z/
/ORTW1.1.ER.110116T1027Z.110117T1800Z.110118T0946Z.NO/
651 PM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. 
* AT  5:45 PM SUNDAY THE FLOW WAS 6177 CFS. 
* FLOOD FLOW IS 4500 CFS. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD FLOW EARLY MONDAY
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 4500 CFS...THE PUYALLUP RIVER WILL FLOOD SOME AREAS 
  ALONG THE UPPER PUYALLUP RIVER ABOVE ORTING.  AREAS INCLUDE BUT ARE
  NOT LIMITED TO THE NEADHAM ROAD VICINITY...ORVILLE ROAD EAST 
  VICINITY IN AREAS SOUTH OF BROOKS ROAD EAST AND NORTH OF ELECTRON 
  ROAD...AND THE COUNTRY SUBDIVISION/TOMOLLA TREE FARM VICINITY.

$$

WAC041-053-171051-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110118T1516Z/
/NISW1.2.ER.110117T0128Z.110117T0600Z.110118T0616Z.NO/
651 PM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NISQUALLY RIVER NEAR NATIONAL
* FROM 5 PM SUNDAY UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT  6:00 PM SUNDAY THE FLOW WAS 7887 CFS. 
* FLOOD FLOW IS 8000 CFS. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE TONIGHT.

$$

WAC067-170321-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110117T2321Z/
/DSRW1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
651 PM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE DESCHUTES RIVER NEAR RAINIER
* AT  5:45 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...THE DESCHUTES RIVER LOCALLY SPILLS OVER ITS 
  BANKS INTO LOW FIELDS AND FORESTED LANDS, MAINLY ALONG VAIL CUTOFF 
  ROAD AND REICHEL ROAD (EAST OF THE TOWN OF VAIL).

$$

WAC041-171051-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110117T1200Z/
/PACW1.1.ER.110116T2224Z.000000T0000Z.110116T2322Z.NO/
651 PM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE COWLITZ RIVER AT PACKWOOD
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. 
* AT  6:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  3:22 PM SUNDAY AND 
  WILL CONTINUE TO FALL.  FLOODING WILL CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS UNTIL 
  THE FLOOD WAVE HAS COMPLETELY PASSED DOWNSTREAM.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...THE COWLITZ RIVER WILL SPILL OVER ITS BANKS 
  INTO NEARBY LOW PASTURE LANDS FROM THE UPPER REACHES DOWNSTREAM 
  THROUGH PACKWOOD.

$$

WAC041-171050-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110119T0614Z/
/RAWW1.3.ER.110116T1706Z.110117T1200Z.110118T2114Z.NO/
651 PM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE COWLITZ RIVER AT RANDLE
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. 
* AT  6:15 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 22.5 FEET
  AROUND 4 AM MONDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY TUESDAY 
  AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...THE COWLITZ RIVER WILL CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING 
  FROM THE VICINITY OF RANDLE DOWNSTREAM THROUGH RIFFE LAKE...WITH 
  DANGEROUS INUNDATION OF MANY ROADS INCLUDING US HIGHWAY 12...
  RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL AREAS...AND FARMS.  FLOODING WILL OCCUR 
  ALL ALONG THE RIVER INCLUDING HEADWATERS...TRIBUTARIES...AND OTHER 
  STREAMS WITHIN AND NEAR THE COWLITZ RIVER BASIN.

$$

WAC041-067-171050-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-110118T0602Z/
/BCDW1.1.ER.110117T0217Z.110117T1200Z.110117T2102Z.NO/
651 PM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SKOOKUMCHUCK RIVER NEAR BUCODA
* FROM 6 PM SUNDAY UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT  5:45 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 7 PM SUNDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 14.9 FEET AROUND 4 AM MONDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 13.5 FEET...THE SKOOKUMCHUCK RIVER IN THURSTON COUNTY 
  WILL FLOOD A FEW ROADS AND LOW PASTURE LANDS NEAR BUCODA.

$$

WAC041-171050-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0019.110117T0236Z-110117T1925Z/
/NEWW1.1.ER.110116T2315Z.110117T0145Z.110117T1025Z.NO/
651 PM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEWAUKUM R NR CHEHALIS
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. 
* AT  5:45 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED AT 10.9 FEET AT 6 PM SUNDAY AND WILL 
  CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.5 FEET...FLOOD WATERS WILL INUNDATE MANY ROADS AND 
  RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL AREAS ALONG THE NEWAUKUM RIVER AND ITS 
  FORKS.  FLOODING IN SOME AREAS MAY BE DEEP AND HAZARDOUS ESPECIALLY
  NEAR RIVERS. IMPACTED ROADWAYS AND SURROUNDING AREAS INCLUDE 
  JACKSON HWY. AND TUNE...RUSH...SOMMERVILLE...GRIEL...HAMILTON...
  TAUSCHER...GUERRIER...KIRKLAND...MACOMBER...RICE...SENN...LUCAS 
  CREEK...MIDDLE FORK AND NORTH FORK ROADS.  A STAGE OF 10.5 ON THE 
  NEWAUKUM ROUGHLY CORRESPONDS TO PHASE 2 FLOOD IN THE LEWIS COUNTY 
  FLOOD SYSTEM.

$$

WAC067-171050-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0024.110117T1045Z-110118T2256Z/
/CGMW1.1.ER.110117T1045Z.110118T0000Z.110118T1356Z.NO/
651 PM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CHEHALIS RIVER NEAR GRAND MOUND
* FROM 3 AM MONDAY UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  6:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 3 AM MONDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 15.1 FEET AROUND 4 PM MONDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...THE CHEHALIS RIVER IN THURSTON COUNTY WILL 
  FLOOD SEVERAL ROADS IN INDEPENDENCE VALLEY INCLUDING JAMES ROAD...
  INDEPENDENCE ROAD AND MOON ROAD. FLOOD WATERS WILL ALSO COVER 
  NEARBY FARM LANDS.

$$
BURKE
WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

864 
WGUS86 KSEW 170809
FLSSEW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1209 AM PST MON JAN 17 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS ENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WASHINGTON...
 
  NISQUALLY RIVER NEAR NATIONAL AFFECTING LEWIS AND PIERCE COUNTIES.
  COWLITZ RIVER AT PACKWOOD AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY.
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WASHINGTON...
 
  PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING AFFECTING PIERCE COUNTY. 
  SKOOKUMCHUCK RIVER NEAR BUCODA AFFECTING LEWIS AND THURSTON 
  COUNTIES. 
  NEWAUKUM R NR CHEHALIS AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
  CHEHALIS RIVER NEAR GRAND MOUND AFFECTING THURSTON COUNTY. 
  COWLITZ RIVER AT RANDLE AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
 
.FLOOD BULLETIN NO. 37

                SOUTH WEST REGION

THE NISQUALLY RIVER AND THE REACH OF THE COWLITZ NEAR PACKWOOD HAVE
FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. SEVERAL OTHER
AREA RIVERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING. THE REACH
OF THE COWLITZ RIVER NEAR RANDLE IS AT MAJOR FLOOD STAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS...VANS...OR TRUCKS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...THIS IS 
THE CAUSE OF MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS IN WASHINGTON. BE ALERT FOR 
RAPID CHANGES AND MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA.

&&

WAC053-171409-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110118T0854Z/
/ORTW1.1.ER.110116T1027Z.110116T2100Z.110117T2354Z.NO/
1209 AM PST MON JAN 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. 
* AT 10:45 PM SUNDAY THE FLOW WAS 4548 CFS. 
* FLOOD FLOW IS 4500 CFS. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER HAS CRESTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW
  FLOOD FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 4500 CFS...THE PUYALLUP RIVER WILL FLOOD SOME AREAS 
  ALONG THE UPPER PUYALLUP RIVER ABOVE ORTING.  AREAS INCLUDE BUT ARE
  NOT LIMITED TO THE NEADHAM ROAD VICINITY...ORVILLE ROAD EAST 
  VICINITY IN AREAS SOUTH OF BROOKS ROAD EAST AND NORTH OF ELECTRON 
  ROAD...AND THE COUNTRY SUBDIVISION/TOMOLLA TREE FARM VICINITY.

$$

WAC041-053-170839-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110118T1516Z/
/NISW1.1.ER.110117T0128Z.000000T0000Z.110117T0131Z.NO/
1209 AM PST MON JAN 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING HAS ENDED FOR
  THE NISQUALLY RIVER NEAR NATIONAL
* AT 11:00 PM SUNDAY THE FLOW WAS 6345 CFS. 
* FLOOD FLOW IS 8000 CFS. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD FLOW SUNDAY EVENING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE  5:31 PM SUNDAY AND 
  WILL CONTINUE TO FALL.

$$

WAC041-170839-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110117T1200Z/
/PACW1.1.ER.110116T2224Z.000000T0000Z.110116T2322Z.NO/
1209 AM PST MON JAN 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING HAS ENDED FOR
  THE COWLITZ RIVER AT PACKWOOD
* AT 11:45 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE  3:22 PM SUNDAY 
  AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL.

$$

WAC041-171409-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110119T0614Z/
/RAWW1.3.ER.110116T1706Z.110117T1200Z.110118T2114Z.NO/
1209 AM PST MON JAN 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE COWLITZ RIVER AT RANDLE
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. 
* AT 11:45 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 22.3 FEET
  AROUND 4 AM MONDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY
  TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...THE COWLITZ RIVER WILL CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING 
  FROM THE VICINITY OF RANDLE DOWNSTREAM THROUGH RIFFE LAKE...WITH 
  DANGEROUS INUNDATION OF MANY ROADS INCLUDING US HIGHWAY 12...
  RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL AREAS...AND FARMS.  FLOODING WILL OCCUR 
  ALL ALONG THE RIVER INCLUDING HEADWATERS...TRIBUTARIES...AND OTHER 
  STREAMS WITHIN AND NEAR THE COWLITZ RIVER BASIN.

$$

WAC041-067-171408-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-110118T0306Z/
/BCDW1.1.ER.110117T0230Z.110117T1200Z.110117T1806Z.NO/
1209 AM PST MON JAN 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SKOOKUMCHUCK RIVER NEAR BUCODA
* UNTIL THIS EVENING. 
* AT 11:45 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 14.2 FEET
  AROUND 4 AM MONDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.5 FEET...THE SKOOKUMCHUCK RIVER IN THURSTON COUNTY 
  WILL FLOOD A FEW ROADS AND LOW PASTURE LANDS NEAR BUCODA.

$$

WAC041-171408-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-110117T1838Z/
/NEWW1.1.ER.110116T2315Z.110117T0515Z.110117T0938Z.NO/
1209 AM PST MON JAN 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEWAUKUM R NR CHEHALIS
* UNTIL THIS MORNING. 
* AT 11:45 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED AT 11.1 FEET AT 9 PM SUNDAY AND WILL 
  CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.5 FEET...FLOOD WATERS WILL INUNDATE MANY ROADS AND 
  RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL AREAS ALONG THE NEWAUKUM RIVER AND ITS 
  FORKS.  FLOODING IN SOME AREAS MAY BE DEEP AND HAZARDOUS ESPECIALLY
  NEAR RIVERS. IMPACTED ROADWAYS AND SURROUNDING AREAS INCLUDE 
  JACKSON HWY. AND TUNE...RUSH...SOMMERVILLE...GRIEL...HAMILTON...
  TAUSCHER...GUERRIER...KIRKLAND...MACOMBER...RICE...SENN...LUCAS 
  CREEK...MIDDLE FORK AND NORTH FORK ROADS.  A STAGE OF 10.5 ON THE 
  NEWAUKUM ROUGHLY CORRESPONDS TO PHASE 2 FLOOD IN THE LEWIS COUNTY 
  FLOOD SYSTEM.

$$

WAC067-171408-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0024.110117T1150Z-110118T2100Z/
/CGMW1.1.ER.110117T1150Z.110118T0000Z.110118T1200Z.NO/
1209 AM PST MON JAN 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CHEHALIS RIVER NEAR GRAND MOUND
* FROM 4 AM MONDAY UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 11:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 4 AM MONDAY
  AND CREST NEAR 14.6 FEET AROUND 4 PM MONDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...THE CHEHALIS RIVER IN THURSTON COUNTY WILL 
  FLOOD SEVERAL ROADS IN INDEPENDENCE VALLEY INCLUDING JAMES ROAD...
  INDEPENDENCE ROAD AND MOON ROAD. FLOOD WATERS WILL ALSO COVER 
  NEARBY FARM LANDS.

$$
BURKE
WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

931 
WGUS86 KSEW 171349
FLSSEW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
549 AM PST MON JAN 17 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS ENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WASHINGTON...
 
  NEWAUKUM RIVER NEAR CHEHALIS AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY.
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WASHINGTON...

  PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING AFFECTING PIERCE COUNTY. 
  COWLITZ RIVER AT RANDLE AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
  SKOOKUMCHUCK RIVER NEAR BUCODA AFFECTING LEWIS AND THURSTON 
  COUNTIES. 
  CHEHALIS RIVER NEAR GRAND MOUND AFFECTING THURSTON COUNTY. 
 
.FLOOD BULLETIN NO. 47

                SOUTH WEST REGION

HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE CASCADES TODAY...BUT 
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE SNOW LEVEL FALLS FROM 4500 FEET TODAY TO 
2500 FEET TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER REACHES OF RIVERS TO 
RECEDE AS FLOOD CRESTS CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS...VANS...OR TRUCKS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. THIS IS 
THE CAUSE OF MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS IN WASHINGTON. BE ALERT FOR 
RAPID CHANGES AND MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA.

&&

WAC053-172149-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110118T0854Z/
/ORTW1.1.ER.110116T1027Z.110116T2100Z.110117T2354Z.NO/
549 AM PST MON JAN 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING
* FROM 2 AM SUNDAY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT  4:45 AM MONDAY THE FLOW WAS 4280 CFS. 
* FLOOD FLOW IS 4500 CFS. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE SLIGHTLY AND CREST NEAR 5000 CFS 
  AROUND 10 AM MONDAY...THEN FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE MONDAY 
  AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 4500 CFS...THE PUYALLUP RIVER WILL FLOOD SOME AREAS 
  ALONG THE UPPER PUYALLUP RIVER ABOVE ORTING.  AREAS INCLUDE BUT ARE
  NOT LIMITED TO THE NEADHAM ROAD VICINITY...ORVILLE ROAD EAST 
  VICINITY IN AREAS SOUTH OF BROOKS ROAD EAST AND NORTH OF ELECTRON 
  ROAD...AND THE COUNTRY SUBDIVISION/TOMOLLA TREE FARM VICINITY.

$$

WAC041-172149-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110119T0614Z/
/RAWW1.3.ER.110116T1706Z.110117T1230Z.110118T2114Z.NO/
549 AM PST MON JAN 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE COWLITZ RIVER AT RANDLE
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. 
* AT  5:30 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER HAS CRESTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...THE COWLITZ RIVER WILL CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING 
  FROM THE VICINITY OF RANDLE DOWNSTREAM THROUGH RIFFE LAKE...WITH 
  DANGEROUS INUNDATION OF MANY ROADS INCLUDING US HIGHWAY 12...
  RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL AREAS...AND FARMS.  FLOODING WILL OCCUR 
  ALL ALONG THE RIVER INCLUDING HEADWATERS...TRIBUTARIES...AND OTHER 
  STREAMS WITHIN AND NEAR THE COWLITZ RIVER BASIN.

$$

WAC041-067-172149-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-110118T0306Z/
/BCDW1.1.ER.110117T0230Z.110117T0715Z.110117T1806Z.NO/
549 AM PST MON JAN 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SKOOKUMCHUCK RIVER NEAR BUCODA
* UNTIL THIS EVENING. 
* AT  4:45 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED AT 13.9 FEET AT 11 PM SUNDAY AND WILL 
  CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.5 FEET...THE SKOOKUMCHUCK RIVER IN THURSTON COUNTY 
  WILL FLOOD A FEW ROADS AND LOW PASTURE LANDS NEAR BUCODA.

$$

WAC041-171419-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-110117T1838Z/
/NEWW1.1.ER.110116T2315Z.110117T0500Z.110117T0843Z.NO/
549 AM PST MON JAN 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING HAS ENDED FOR
  THE NEWAUKUM RIVER NEAR CHEHALIS
* AT  5:30 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 12:43 AM MONDAY EARLY 
  THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL.


$$

WAC067-172148-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-110118T2100Z/
/CGMW1.1.ER.110117T1122Z.110118T0000Z.110118T1200Z.NO/
549 AM PST MON JAN 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CHEHALIS RIVER NEAR GRAND MOUND
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 
* AT  5:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 14.6 FEET
  AROUND 4 PM MONDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY 
  TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...THE CHEHALIS RIVER IN THURSTON COUNTY WILL 
  FLOOD SEVERAL ROADS IN INDEPENDENCE VALLEY INCLUDING JAMES ROAD...
  INDEPENDENCE ROAD AND MOON ROAD. FLOOD WATERS WILL ALSO COVER 
  NEARBY FARM LANDS.

$$

MCDONNAL
WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A WET FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A STREAM OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING RAIN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH
TODAY. HEAVY RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 8000 FEET
WILL PRODUCE FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
MONDAY AND THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO AROUND 3000 FEET MONDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE AXIS OF A BROAD FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
RIDING OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS BEING FED BY A WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY JET THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 30N/170W. THE
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVED INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON
SATURDAY...AND IT HAS BROUGHT SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE MOUNTAINS -- PARTICULARLY IN
THE CASCADES FROM THE SNOHOMISH BASIN SOUTHWARD -- WHERE ROUGHLY 1
TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN SO FAR WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
AROUND 8000 FT.

AT 3 AM RADAR STILL SHOWED RAIN WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON
WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. IN ADDITION
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST...OVER THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA...AND OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS.

LOTS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON
TODAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...AND SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
OF RAIN WILL FALL AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE
CASCADES...AND THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
SHIFT A BIT NORTHWARD. WE WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO SEE FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED RAIN SHADOWING OVER MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND AND NORTHWEST
INTERIOR.

THE CONVEYOR OF WARM MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE STARTING ROUGHLY MIDDAY TODAY AND CONTINUING TONIGHT AND
MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE STARTS BUILDING OFFSHORE ALONG 135W. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...CUT OFF THE TAP TO WARM MOISTURE...AND GRADUALLY
COOL THE AIR MASS.

PRECIPITATION DURING THE 24 HOURS ENDING LATE TONIGHT WILL AMOUNT TO
ROUGHLY 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ONLY 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES
DURING THE FOLLOWING 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL
GRADUALLY TO AROUND 6000 FT TONIGHT...4500 FT MONDAY...AND FINALLY
3000 FT MONDAY NIGHT. SHADOWING WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS WITH SHOWERS BECOMING GENERALLY LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED.

TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE WINDY IN PARTS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AS
WELL. FOR THE LOWLANDS THE COAST AND PUGET SOUND REGION WILL HAVE
WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...WITH SOMEWHAT
LESS WINDY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. EXPOSED RIDGES IN THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE EVEN WINDIER...IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 60
MPH. THOSE VALUES HOWEVER ARE BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING AND EVEN WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS SHOWN THIS FEATURE FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...BUT IT HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
DETAILS OF ITS LOCATION AND TIMING. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS THIS FEATURE
BUT MUCH WEAKER. AND WHILE SOME PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL
DID NOT SHOW IT AT ALL...THE MOST RECENT ONE DOES. AT ANY RATE...IT
WILL NOT HAVE ANY SPECIAL IMPACT EXCEPT SOME RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS
AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS THURSDAY WILL BE DRIER DAYS...AS
THE UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF ONCE AGAIN OFFSHORE AND GIVES
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE POOR BEYOND
THURSDAY...THOUGH THERE IS DECENT INDICATION THAT ANOTHER ORGANIZED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FOCUS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING HAS BEEN OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CASCADES. PARADISE AT 5500
FEET ON MOUNT RAINIER RECEIVED 2.5 INCHES BY MIDNIGHT AND COULD
EASILY GET 6 INCHES IN 24 HOURS ENDING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALL
RAIN AS PARADISE IS 38 DEGREES AND THE FREEZING LEVEL IS LIKELY
ABOVE 8000 FEET. THE UPSHOT IS FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ALREADY OUT FOR
RIVERS THAT FLOW OFF MOUNT RAINIER...INCLUDING THE COWLITZ...
NISQUALLY...DESCHUTES...AND THE REACH OF THE PUYALLUP NEAR ORTING.

THE NEXT BATCH OF RIVERS THAT MAY REQUIRE A WARNING ARE IN THE
SNOHOMISH BASIN. SNOQUALMIE PASS APPEARS TO HAVE RECEIVED NEARLY 3
INCHES SINCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TOLT WILL PROBABLY BE THE FIRST
TO FLOOD. THE SNOQUALMIE...SKYKOMISH...AND SNOHOMISH WILL ALSO
LIKELY FLOOD. MAY LEAVE THE WARNING ON THE SNOHOMISH FOR A LATER
SHIFT BUT THE REST WILL PROBABLY BE WARNED SOON. THE STILLAGUAMISH
IS PRETTY FLASHY AND MAY ALSO NEED A WARNING SOON.

RAINFALL SO FAR HAS BEEN LIGHTER FARTHER NORTH. THE SKAGIT AND
NOOKSACK HAVE NOT YET RISEN SHARPLY AND MAY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAIN TO MOVE NORTH...AS PREDICTED BY MODELS...SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST HAS NOT BEEN AS HEAVY AS PREDICTED SO
FAR AND RIVERS HAVE BARELY BEGUN TO RESPOND. THE SKOKOMISH RIVER
WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY FLOOD...BUT OTHER RIVERS INCLUDING THE
CHEHALIS NEWAUKUM SKOOKUMCHUCK AND SATSOP MAY NOT.

THE GREEN RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT
THE AUBURN GAUGE. THIS WOULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OVER LOW LYING
FARM LANDS UPSTREAM OF AUBURN.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON.

THE FORECAST IS FOR RAIN TO SLOWLY TAPER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
IS NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEK AFTER MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GREEN RIVER WILL NOT FLOOD DURING THAT PERIOD. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG AND MOIST WLY FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT A WEAKENING CDFNT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AS
EVIDENCED BY THE LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE WRN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED TSTMS THE
REST OF TODAY.

LLWS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP THIS EVENING.

KSEA...THE SANDPOINT PROFILER SHOWED SW WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS NEAR
2K FT EARLY THIS MORNING...THUS WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF LLWS IN THE
TAF TIL ABOUT MIDMORNING. THE THREAT OF LLWS SHOULD END BY 1800 UTC
OR ONCE THE STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. HOWEVER LLWS WILL
LIKELY REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER.

AS EXPECTED A MESOLOW HAS DEVELOP OVER THE N END OF THE ADMIRALTY
INLET...EXTENDING OVER PART OF THE E ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY OVER THIS AREA TODAY
BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
COASTAL WATERS...ANTICIPATE THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR OVER THE
PUGET SOUND AND CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

ANOTHER...BUT STRONGER...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MON. MEANWHILE...MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MON BUT WILL RELAX ON TUE.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND/OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
     FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

PZ...GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...
     PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL...AND CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING
     WATERS EXCEPT THE EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR
     CONDITIONS THRU LATE MON NIGHT.

FOR AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SW MONTESANO          46.97N 123.65W
01/16/2011  M3.67 INCH       GRAYS HARBOR       WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HR RAINFALL

0845 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WNW RANDLE            46.54N 121.99W
01/16/2011  M2.40 INCH       LEWIS              WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE 2 PM SATURDAY.

&&

DDAMICO