Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Blacksburg, VA

511 
WWUS51 KRNK 050508
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
108 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

NCC169-171-193-197-VAC035-063-067-077-141-640-050600-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-110405T0600Z/
YADKIN NC-STOKES NC-SURRY NC-WILKES NC-PATRICK VA-CITY OF GALAX VA-
GRAYSON VA-FRANKLIN VA-FLOYD VA-CARROLL VA-
108 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EDT
FOR THE CITY OF GALAX... CARROLL...FLOYD...WESTERN FRANKLIN...EASTERN
GRAYSON...PATRICK...EASTERN WILKES...SURRY...WESTERN STOKES AND
YADKIN COUNTIES...

AT 106 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BOTTOM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG AT...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4...WHEN YOU CAN
DO SO SAFELY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM EDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3656 8090 3656 8093 3668 8094 3679 8108
      3689 8071 3702 8043 3700 8042 3702 8041
      3702 8035 3705 8032 3710 8010 3627 8024
      3625 8026 3626 8044 3614 8044 3610 8050
      3606 8050 3605 8099 3602 8116
TIME...MOT...LOC 0508Z 247DEG 58KT 3647 8080

$$

716 
WWUS51 KRNK 050536
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
136 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

VAC077-640-050546-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-110405T0600Z/
CITY OF GALAX VA-GRAYSON VA-
136 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR THE CITY OF GALAX... EASTERN
GRAYSON COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM EDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3606 8099 3658 8072 3693 8061 3702 8043
      3700 8042 3705 8032 3710 8010 3627 8024
      3625 8027 3626 8044 3614 8044 3610 8050
      3606 8050
TIME...MOT...LOC 0536Z 240DEG 65KT 3679 8030

$$

NCC169-171-193-197-VAC035-063-067-141-050600-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-110405T0600Z/
YADKIN NC-STOKES NC-SURRY NC-WILKES NC-PATRICK VA-FRANKLIN VA-
FLOYD VA-CARROLL VA-
136 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EDT
FOR EASTERN CARROLL...FLOYD...WESTERN FRANKLIN...PATRICK...EASTERN
WILKES...SURRY...WESTERN STOKES AND YADKIN COUNTIES...

AT 133 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR ROCKY KNOB RECREATION AREA...OR NEAR WOOLWINE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG AT...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4...WHEN YOU CAN
DO SO SAFELY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM EDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3606 8099 3658 8072 3693 8061 3702 8043
      3700 8042 3705 8032 3710 8010 3627 8024
      3625 8027 3626 8044 3614 8044 3610 8050
      3606 8050
TIME...MOT...LOC 0536Z 240DEG 65KT 3679 8030

$$

313 
WWUS51 KRNK 050600
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
200 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

NCC169-171-193-197-VAC035-063-067-141-050610-
/O.EXP.KRNK.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-110405T0600Z/
YADKIN NC-STOKES NC-SURRY NC-WILKES NC-PATRICK VA-FRANKLIN VA-
FLOYD VA-CARROLL VA-
200 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN CARROLL...FLOYD...
WESTERN FRANKLIN...PATRICK...EASTERN WILKES...SURRY...WESTERN STOKES
AND YADKIN COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 200 AM EDT...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. THUS THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG AT...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM EDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 3606 8099 3658 8072 3693 8061 3702 8043
      3700 8042 3705 8032 3710 8010 3627 8024
      3625 8027 3626 8044 3614 8044 3610 8050
      3606 8050
TIME...MOT...LOC 0600Z 240DEG 65KT 3701 7983

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1017 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING STRETCHED FROM WRN PA TO ERN KY INTO AL.
CONVECTION WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY COMING INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS
WITH DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER. STILL SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ACROSS
THE SRN CWA THIS EVENING WITH MAIN QLCS CROSSING THE SMOKYS SOUTH
INTO WRN GA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY SURGE NWD OVERNIGHT FROM
THIS LINE BUT TYPICALLY THE MTNS DISRUPT THESE STRONG LINES. THE
LATEST RUC SHOWS AN NOSE OF 500 CAPES TRYING TO SURGE INTO THE NW
NC ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MAIN EMPHASIS WILL STILL BE THE GRADIENT WINDS. WINDS
WILL NOT BE GUSTY ALL THE TIME TONIGHT BUT WILL BE MAINLY IN
SHOWERS...AND RIGHT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. LATEST MODELS
SUGGESTING A GOOD BURST OF PRESSURE RISES POST FRONT AROUND
06-12Z. WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY TIL 6AM...ALTHOUGH SOME
AREAS SUCH AS SE WV INTO FAR SW VA MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED
EARLIER. THE WINDS COULD STAY UP LONGER IN THE NC MTNS PER
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF 40+ KNOTS TIL 15Z.

AS FOR THE PRECIP...LOOKING AT SHOWERS MAKING IT ACROSS THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH BACK EDGE STILL OVER CENTRAL KY. THE BACK EDGE MAY
NOT BE OUT OF THE CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z IF THE 00Z NAM IS CORRECT.
COLDER AIR SHOULD BE LAGGING ENOUGH THAT SNOW THREAT IS SMALL IN
THE SE WV MTNS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY OR CLIMB ONLY A FEW DEGREES ON
TUESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK TO ABOUT -4C. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE PRESSURE RISES
AND COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AXIS OF ELONGATED UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. BY DAWN WEDNESDAY. EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER/BATH COUNTIES. THE GFS APPEARS
OVERDONE WITH THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP AT 00Z(8 PM EDT).

AS DRIER AIR QUICKLY PUSHES IN THE REGION AND WINDS SLACKEN IN THE
VALLEYS...TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING. SINCE THE
GROWING SEASON HAS NOT STARTED IN MOST LOCATIONS...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AND MENTION THE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
HWO.

WE REMAIN UNDER A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH WEAK UPPER RIDING BUILDING WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES ARRIVE THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...
LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY
CONSIDERING THE COOL START TO THE DAY AND LIMITED MIXING.

FOR THURSDAY...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH THE GFS THE OUTLIER IN
PRODUCING PRECIP IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
VERY WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE PREFERRED THE DRY
NAM/ECMWF/SREF
SOLUTIONS. SURGING 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS
THURSDAY TO SOAR TO THE LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY FLATTENS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE
RE-BUILDING IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE CENTRAL
U.S. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASED COVERAGE OF POPS SATURDAY AS
IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE
AND WITH GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWING A LARGE NUMBER OF MEMBERS PRODUCING
PRECIP. KEPT POPS IN THE CHC OR SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE TAP.

FOR MONDAY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A SFC FRONT...BUT THE TREND OF THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FASTER
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP. THEREFORE...INCREASED COVERAGE AND
VALUES OF POPS MONDAY MAINLY IN THE MTNS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL STILL SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING OUT EAST WITH
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AN ISSUE FROM BCB EAST AS WELL BEFORE
CONVECTION MOVES IN. THE DRIER AIR HAS MADE FOR SLOWER TRANSITION
TO LOWER CIGS EVEN WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SE WV. HAVE SPED
UP TIMING OF CONVECTION BY 2 HOURS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
FRONT ARRIVING JUST BEHIND IT. LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVIER
RAINS IMPACTING BLF/LWB AT TIMES FROM NOW UNTIL 02Z...WITH
MODERATE SHOWERS AFTERWARDS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SVR WINDS WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH MIXING. CIGS AT BLF SHOULD
STAY MVFR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...WITH LWB IMPROVING TO VFR BY 18Z
TUE.

AT BCB...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER TO
ARRIVE BY 0230Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND SOME IFR VSBYS. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NW BY 12Z AND GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING LATE MORNING.

THE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA AFFECTS ROANOKE BY 04Z AND LYH/DAN FROM
05-6Z. THE QUESTION WILL BE IN HOW STRONG THE LINE WILL BE AS IT
MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. KEPT THUNDER IN THE TAFS BUT EXPECT LESS
TIME OF THUNDER THAN FORECASTED.

LOOK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN IN THE
11Z-13Z TIME FRAME WITH WINDS GUSTING FROM THE WNW AT 25-35 KNOTS.

A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...AMS/WP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1025 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

VAZ007-009>014-017>020-022>024-033>035-045>047-059-WVZ042>045-060230-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-
AMHERST-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-
MONROE-GREENBRIER-
1025 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY. AREAS OF FROST
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ015-016-032-043-044-058-060230-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-GRAYSON-CARROLL-PATRICK-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-HALIFAX-
1025 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.  AREAS OF FROST CAN BE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
724 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009-010-015-050015-
ALLEGHANY NC-ASHE NC-BLAND VA-GRAYSON VA-SMYTH VA-TAZEWELL VA-
WATAUGA NC-
724 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
ALLEGHANY...ASHE...BLAND...GRAYSON...SMYTH...TAZEWELL AND WATAUGA
COUNTIES...

AT 718 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING INTO
TAZEWELL...SMYTH AND GRAYSON COUNTIES. THIS LINE IS MOVING TO THE
EAST AT AROUND 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR CERES AROUND 730 PM AND BOISSEVAIN AROUND 735
PM.

LAT...LON 3634 8185 3635 8173 3641 8175 3657 8170
      3663 8161 3692 8184 3698 8179 3715 8191
      3724 8171 3721 8168 3721 8156 3732 8139
      3697 8134 3695 8138 3690 8133 3636 8126
      3637 8134 3634 8137 3625 8190 3629 8192

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1146 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009-010-012-015-WVZ042-050430-
ALLEGHANY NC-ASHE NC-BLAND VA-GRAYSON VA-MERCER WV-SMYTH VA-
TAZEWELL VA-WATAUGA NC-WYTHE VA-
1146 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
ALLEGHANY...ASHE...BLAND...GRAYSON...MERCER...SMYTH...TAZEWELL...
WATAUGA AND WYTHE COUNTIES...

AT 1145 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM
SALTVILLE TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BEECH MOUNTAIN...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR ASBERRYS...CLIFFIELD...BANDY...AND JEWELL
RIDGE AROUND 1155 PM...TAZEWELL...AMONATE...HUNGRY MOTHER STATE
PARK...AND THOMAS BRIDGE AROUND MIDNIGHT...GRATTON AND AND TIPTOP
AROUND 1205 AM.

LAT...LON 3635 8183 3635 8173 3641 8175 3657 8170
      3663 8161 3687 8179 3700 8180 3715 8191
      3725 8173 3721 8168 3721 8156 3728 8141
      3739 8134 3752 8099 3750 8096 3650 8112
      3611 8173 3611 8181 3621 8191 3629 8192

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1237 AM EDT TUE APR 05 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 AM     HAIL             LANSING                 36.50N 81.51W
04/05/2011  E1.00 INCH       ASHE               NC   PUBLIC

&&

SK