Alert archive / Virginia / Special Weather Statements in 2011
Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA
NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this special weather statement at Apr 4, 2011, 11:46 PM EDT for 5 counties in Virginia; Ashe County, Watauga County, North Carolina; Mercer County, West Virginia. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 4, 2011, 11:46 PM EDT (03:46 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 5, 2011, 12:30 AM EDT
- In force
- 44 min
- Issued by
- NWS Blacksburg, VA
Counties Ashe County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Bland County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Mercer County, WV
The radar
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 123 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 3.8 hours before the alert went out and 173 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2364 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 41 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 144 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 291 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Apr 4, 10:17 PM EDT, 1 hour 29 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 4, 10:17 PM EDT, 1 hour 29 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1017 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING STRETCHED FROM WRN PA TO ERN KY INTO AL.
CONVECTION WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY COMING INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS
WITH DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER. STILL SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ACROSS
THE SRN CWA THIS EVENING WITH MAIN QLCS CROSSING THE SMOKYS SOUTH
INTO WRN GA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY SURGE NWD OVERNIGHT FROM
THIS LINE BUT TYPICALLY THE MTNS DISRUPT THESE STRONG LINES. THE
LATEST RUC SHOWS AN NOSE OF 500 CAPES TRYING TO SURGE INTO THE NW
NC ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MAIN EMPHASIS WILL STILL BE THE GRADIENT WINDS. WINDS
WILL NOT BE GUSTY ALL THE TIME TONIGHT BUT WILL BE MAINLY IN
SHOWERS...AND RIGHT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. LATEST MODELS
SUGGESTING A GOOD BURST OF PRESSURE RISES POST FRONT AROUND
06-12Z. WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY TIL 6AM...ALTHOUGH SOME
AREAS SUCH AS SE WV INTO FAR SW VA MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED
EARLIER. THE WINDS COULD STAY UP LONGER IN THE NC MTNS PER
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF 40+ KNOTS TIL 15Z.
AS FOR THE PRECIP...LOOKING AT SHOWERS MAKING IT ACROSS THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH BACK EDGE STILL OVER CENTRAL KY. THE BACK EDGE MAY
NOT BE OUT OF THE CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z IF THE 00Z NAM IS CORRECT.
COLDER AIR SHOULD BE LAGGING ENOUGH THAT SNOW THREAT IS SMALL IN
THE SE WV MTNS.
MODELS STILL SHOWING GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY OR CLIMB ONLY A FEW DEGREES ON
TUESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK TO ABOUT -4C. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE PRESSURE RISES
AND COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AXIS OF ELONGATED UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. BY DAWN WEDNESDAY. EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER/BATH COUNTIES. THE GFS APPEARS
OVERDONE WITH THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP AT 00Z(8 PM EDT).
AS DRIER AIR QUICKLY PUSHES IN THE REGION AND WINDS SLACKEN IN THE
VALLEYS...TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING. SINCE THE
GROWING SEASON HAS NOT STARTED IN MOST LOCATIONS...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AND MENTION THE FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
HWO.
WE REMAIN UNDER A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH WEAK UPPER RIDING BUILDING WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES ARRIVE THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...
LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY
CONSIDERING THE COOL START TO THE DAY AND LIMITED MIXING.
FOR THURSDAY...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH THE GFS THE OUTLIER IN
PRODUCING PRECIP IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
VERY WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE PREFERRED THE DRY
NAM/ECMWF/SREF
SOLUTIONS. SURGING 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS
THURSDAY TO SOAR TO THE LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY FLATTENS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE
RE-BUILDING IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE CENTRAL
U.S. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASED COVERAGE OF POPS SATURDAY AS
IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE
AND WITH GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWING A LARGE NUMBER OF MEMBERS PRODUCING
PRECIP. KEPT POPS IN THE CHC OR SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE TAP.
FOR MONDAY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A SFC FRONT...BUT THE TREND OF THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FASTER
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP. THEREFORE...INCREASED COVERAGE AND
VALUES OF POPS MONDAY MAINLY IN THE MTNS.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL STILL SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING OUT EAST WITH
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AN ISSUE FROM BCB EAST AS WELL BEFORE
CONVECTION MOVES IN. THE DRIER AIR HAS MADE FOR SLOWER TRANSITION
TO LOWER CIGS EVEN WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SE WV. HAVE SPED
UP TIMING OF CONVECTION BY 2 HOURS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
FRONT ARRIVING JUST BEHIND IT. LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVIER
RAINS IMPACTING BLF/LWB AT TIMES FROM NOW UNTIL 02Z...WITH
MODERATE SHOWERS AFTERWARDS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SVR WINDS WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH MIXING. CIGS AT BLF SHOULD
STAY MVFR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...WITH LWB IMPROVING TO VFR BY 18Z
TUE.
AT BCB...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER TO
ARRIVE BY 0230Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND SOME IFR VSBYS. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NW BY 12Z AND GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING LATE MORNING.
THE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA AFFECTS ROANOKE BY 04Z AND LYH/DAN FROM
05-6Z. THE QUESTION WILL BE IN HOW STRONG THE LINE WILL BE AS IT
MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. KEPT THUNDER IN THE TAFS BUT EXPECT LESS
TIME OF THUNDER THAN FORECASTED.
LOOK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN IN THE
11Z-13Z TIME FRAME WITH WINDS GUSTING FROM THE WNW AT 25-35 KNOTS.
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ042>045.
&&
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...AMS/WPHazardous weather outlook, Apr 4, 10:25 PM EDT, 1 hour 21 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1025 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011 VAZ007-009>014-017>020-022>024-033>035-045>047-059-WVZ042>045-060230- TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-FLOYD-CRAIG- ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD- AMHERST-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS- MONROE-GREENBRIER- 1025 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY. AREAS OF FROST CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ015-016-032-043-044-058-060230- ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES- YADKIN-GRAYSON-CARROLL-PATRICK-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-HALIFAX- 1025 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND ADVISORY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. AREAS OF FROST CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Apr 4, 7:24 PM EDT, 4 hours 22 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
724 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011
NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009-010-015-050015-
ALLEGHANY NC-ASHE NC-BLAND VA-GRAYSON VA-SMYTH VA-TAZEWELL VA-
WATAUGA NC-
724 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
ALLEGHANY...ASHE...BLAND...GRAYSON...SMYTH...TAZEWELL AND WATAUGA
COUNTIES...
AT 718 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING INTO
TAZEWELL...SMYTH AND GRAYSON COUNTIES. THIS LINE IS MOVING TO THE
EAST AT AROUND 55 MPH.
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR CERES AROUND 730 PM AND BOISSEVAIN AROUND 735
PM.
LAT...LON 3634 8185 3635 8173 3641 8175 3657 8170
3663 8161 3692 8184 3698 8179 3715 8191
3724 8171 3721 8168 3721 8156 3732 8139
3697 8134 3695 8138 3690 8133 3636 8126
3637 8134 3634 8137 3625 8190 3629 8192
16Special weather statement, Apr 4, 11:46 PM EDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1146 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011
NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009-010-012-015-WVZ042-050430-
ALLEGHANY NC-ASHE NC-BLAND VA-GRAYSON VA-MERCER WV-SMYTH VA-
TAZEWELL VA-WATAUGA NC-WYTHE VA-
1146 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011
...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
ALLEGHANY...ASHE...BLAND...GRAYSON...MERCER...SMYTH...TAZEWELL...
WATAUGA AND WYTHE COUNTIES...
AT 1145 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM
SALTVILLE TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BEECH MOUNTAIN...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR ASBERRYS...CLIFFIELD...BANDY...AND JEWELL
RIDGE AROUND 1155 PM...TAZEWELL...AMONATE...HUNGRY MOTHER STATE
PARK...AND THOMAS BRIDGE AROUND MIDNIGHT...GRATTON AND AND TIPTOP
AROUND 1205 AM.
LAT...LON 3635 8183 3635 8173 3641 8175 3657 8170
3663 8161 3687 8179 3700 8180 3715 8191
3725 8173 3721 8168 3721 8156 3728 8141
3739 8134 3752 8099 3750 8096 3650 8112
3611 8173 3611 8181 3621 8191 3629 8192The office that day
Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 12:02 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Grayson, Smyth, City of Galax | 58 min |
| Apr 5, 12:32 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Bland, Craig, Floyd, Giles, Montgomery, Pulaski and 3 more | 58 min |
| Apr 5, 12:45 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Carroll, Floyd, Franklin, Grayson, Patrick, City of Galax | 75 min |
| Apr 5, 1:33 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Alleghany, Bedford, Botetourt, Craig, Floyd, Franklin and 7 more | 57 min |
| Apr 5, 1:46 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Bedford, Franklin, Henry, Patrick, Pittsylvania, City of Martinsville | 59 min |
| Apr 5, 1:58 AM EDT | Tornado Warning | RNK | Franklin, Henry, City of Martinsville | 17 min |
| Apr 5, 2:06 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Henry, Patrick, Pittsylvania, City of Danville, City of Martinsville | 54 min |
| Apr 5, 2:26 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Buckingham, Campbell, Charlotte and 4 more | 57 min |
| Apr 5, 2:36 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Campbell, Charlotte, Halifax, Pittsylvania | 54 min |
| Apr 5, 2:58 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Charlotte, Halifax, Henry, Pittsylvania, City of Danville | 62 min |
| Apr 5, 5:49 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Giles, Montgomery, City of Radford | 56 min |
| Apr 5, 3:12 AM EDT | Tornado Warning | RNK | Caswell | 14 min |
| Apr 5, 4:38 AM EDT | Frost Advisory | RNK | Caswell, Rockingham, Stokes, Surry, Wilkes, Yadkin | 28 hr |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Virginia, 2011Special Weather Statements in North Carolina, 2011Special Weather Statements in West Virginia, 2011Every special weather statement in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.