Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION TODAY THEN
DRIFT WEST ON SUNDAY. EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HOT CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM...

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. WITH MINIMALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
MINIMALLY DRIER AIR SUNDAY... NO WARNINGS AT THIS TIME... A HEAT
ADVISORY ROCKINGHAM EAST NORTHEAST TO GOLDSBORO.

DEWPOINTS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DROPPED INTO THE MID
60S FRIDAY. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE TODAY ONCE AGAIN.

VORTICITY CENTER OVER THE VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS TO MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT... THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EARLY TONIGHT WILL
WARRANT CHANCE POPS IN SPOTS WITH DECREASING COVERAGE LATE EVENING
BUT PERSISTING INTO THE LATE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MID TO UPPER
70S.

A VERY MINOR DROP IN THICKNESS AND 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES
FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR SUNDAY. PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST VERTICAL
AIR MASS PROFILES LITTLE CHANGED FROM THAT OF TODAY. WITH THE BEST
WINDS AGAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST... THESE AREAS SLIGHTLY
PREFERRED FOR AFTERNOON CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTION... BUT CHANCES
REMAIN SLIGHT AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES PERHAPS TO TAKE ANOTHER
DEGREE FALL FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. DEWPOINTS AGAIN MAY SLIP INTO
THE MID 60S IN SPOTS. CURRENT FORECAST WOULD JUSTIFY A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF OUR EXTREME SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 90S TO NEAR 100. MOSTLY MID 70S FOR LOWER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...

MON AND MON NIGHT: THE RETROGRESSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...AND
ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDING A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA...WILL RESULT IN IMPROVED FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE AND
CONSEQUENT INCREASED PROBABILITY/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD. PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES IN THE
1435 TO 1445 METER RANGE WOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S...BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/STORMS INSTEAD FAVOR TEMPS 2-3
DEGREES LOWER ON AVERAGE...GENERALLY IN THE 92 TO 97 DEGREE RANGE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT: THE CONSENSUS OF NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED MOIST AXIS -- AND THE ATTENDING
SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS -- WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SANDHILLS...SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...AND CENTRAL-SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN TUE AFTERNOON...WHERE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE MOST LIKELY
TO DEVELOP. TO THE NORTH...ROUGHLY NORTH OF HWY 64...DEEP LAYER
DRYING AND LIGHT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LESS THAN 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS. THIS
SHOULD ALSO BE THE LEAST HOT PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM SATURDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION THIS PERIOD. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB STEADILY FROM
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S WED TO UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES
FRI-SAT...WITH LIMITED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64 AT
THIS TIME WITH OTHER SHOWERS TO ADVECT INTO THE TRIAD AREA FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SHORTLY. VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THESE
SHOWERS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR
HAZE OR FOG NEAR SUNRISE WHERE RAINS ARE HEAVIEST THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 11 PM WITH A FEW SHOWERS
PERSISTING WELL PAST MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
TODAY IN DOWNDRAFTS... WELL AWAY FROM ANY STORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THEN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY AFTERNOON. A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THEN
SLIGHT MAINLY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. SOME MVFR FOG
OR HAZE PRIOR TO SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
GSO                                    RDU

DATE     HIGH/YEAR    HIGH MIN/YEAR    HIGH/YEAR  HIGH MIN/YEAR

SAT 23:   99/1952       78/2010        105/1952       76/2010
SUN 24:   96/2010       78/2010        100/2010       79/2010

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ078-084>086-
088-089.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ007-021>023-
038-039.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...
CLIMATE...RAH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
401 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>077-083-242015-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-
CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-
ANSON-
401 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ007-021>023-038-039-242015-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
401 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ078-084>086-088-089-242015-
WAYNE-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
401 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
457 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE WILLBANKS         35.77N  77.73W
07/23/2011                   WILSON             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            EDGECOMBE CO 911 RECEIVED REPORT OF TREE DOWN ON RD ON
            NC 42 NEAR WILSON AND EDGECOMBE CO LINE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1101057

TDH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
504 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

NCZ041-232215-
WAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...RALEIGH
504 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE RALEIGH APEX CARY AREAS WILL MOVE
EAST TOWARD CLAYTON AND ZEBULON THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
WILL CAUSE BRIEF PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS THIS EVENING.
MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT TO THIS HAZARD.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
520 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N FOUR OAKS           35.50N  78.42W
07/23/2011                   JOHNSTON           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            HOME DESTROYED BY A TREE... FAMILY DISPLACED

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1101058

KRR

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