Alert archive / North Carolina / Special Weather Statements in 2011

Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

July 23, 2011Forsyth County, Guilford County, North Carolina

NWS Raleigh, NC issued this special weather statement at Jul 23, 2011, 2:07 PM EDT for Forsyth County, Guilford County, North Carolina. It was in force for 83 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 23, 2011, 2:07 PM EDT (18:07 UTC)
Expired: Jul 23, 2011, 3:30 PM EDT
In force: 83 min
Issued by: NWS Raleigh, NC

Counties Forsyth County, NC, Guilford County, NC

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 6.1 hours before the alert went out and 23 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1021 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -96 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1247 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 4 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -69 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 4 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 23, 2:07 PM EDT, 0 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 23, 2:07 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
207 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION TODAY THEN
DRIFT WEST ON SUNDAY. EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HOT CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THERE IS NO PROFIT IN REDUCING OR CHANGING
CURRENT ISSUANCES WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SPOTS
STILL LIKELY.

DEWPOINTS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DROPPED INTO THE MID
60S FRIDAY. GREENSBORO AND MOREHEAD SOUNDINGS DRIER THIS MORNING
THAN 24 HOURS AGO... WITH ROANOKE MORE MOIST IN DECENT VORTICITY
LOBE. DEWPOINTS GENERALLY DOWN ABOUT TWO DEGREES FROM THIS TIME
FRIDAY. A RISK SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
THIS AFTERNOON. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES UNCHANGED THIS MORNING
AND FORECAST THICKNESSES SIMILAR TO FRIDAY... SO SIMILAR
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY... MID 90S NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... 98
TO 103 ELSEWHERE.

VORTICITY CENTER OVER THE VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS TO MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST TODAY... BUT CLOUDINESS NOT INTERFERING WITH SUNSHINE IN
A MAJOR WAY UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT MAY HOWEVER PRODUCE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY ACROSS THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND
TRIAD... AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE
THE BEST WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH...
SO THE AREAS JUST NORTHEAST OF CHARLOTTE MIGHT BE LEAST FAVORED
FOR RAIN TODAY. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY... RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO
BE NOT MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD PERSIST DEEP
INTO THE NIGHT HOWEVER. SEVERE WIND THREAT AND HEAVY LOCAL RAIN
THREAT SIMILAR TO FRIDAY... TINY BUT NOT ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES
MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...

A VERY MINOR DROP IN THICKNESS AND 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES
FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR SUNDAY. PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST VERTICAL
AIR MASS PROFILES LITTLE CHANGED FROM THAT OF TODAY. WITH THE BEST
WINDS AGAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST... THESE AREAS SLIGHTLY
PREFERRED FOR AFTERNOON CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTION... BUT CHANCES
REMAIN SLIGHT AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES PERHAPS TO TAKE ANOTHER
DEGREE FALL FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. DEWPOINTS AGAIN MAY SLIP INTO
THE MID 60S IN SPOTS. CURRENT FORECAST WOULD JUSTIFY A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF OUR EXTREME SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. A LOOK AT
THIS MORNINGS MODELS AND THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MAY CHANGE
THINGS... BUT CONSIDERING LEAVING ANY ISSUANCES FOR THE MIDNIGHT
SHIFT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 90S TO NEAR 100. MOSTLY MID
70S FOR LOWER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM SATURDAY...

NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
HELP TO FURTHER LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION (WITH A SHARPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT)... POSSIBLY DISSIPATING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK (ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
CHANGE WILL BE SMALL AND DIFFUSE AS IT MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA).
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PROBABLY OUR BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE ENTIRE 7 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AREA WIDE... AND
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AGAIN. THINK WE SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING... AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH... THANKS TO THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT INTERACTING WITH A WARM
AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM WET
MICROBURSTS... AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND THE FREEZING LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 16
THOUSAND FEET WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SOME WHAT WEAK STEERING FLOW
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... PRIMARILY IN URBAN AREAS.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LESS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE AREA AND THE RIDGE
ALOFT BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S... WITH POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THUS... WE MAY NEED ANOTHER HEAT
ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...
GIVEN EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 70S. HOWEVER... THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE A KEY ROLE
IN HOW MUCH WE CAN WARM. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS... EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 90S WEDNESDAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY FRIDAY... WITH
PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS HITTING THE 100 DEGREE MARK AGAIN BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64 AT
THIS TIME WITH OTHER SHOWERS TO ADVECT INTO THE TRIAD AREA FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SHORTLY. VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THESE
SHOWERS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR
HAZE OR FOG NEAR SUNRISE WHERE RAINS ARE HEAVIEST THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 11 PM WITH A FEW SHOWERS
PERSISTING WELL PAST MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
TODAY IN DOWNDRAFTS... WELL AWAY FROM ANY STORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THEN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY AFTERNOON. A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THEN
SLIGHT MAINLY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. SOME MVFR FOG
OR HAZE PRIOR TO SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
GSO                                    RDU

DATE     HIGH/YEAR    HIGH MIN/YEAR    HIGH/YEAR  HIGH MIN/YEAR

SAT 23:   99/1952       78/2010        105/1952       76/2010
SUN 24:   96/2010       78/2010        100/2010       79/2010

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ007-021>023-
038-039.

&&

LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...VINCENT

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 23, 4:06 AM EDT, 10 hours 1 minute before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
406 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-240930-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-
CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-
WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
406 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY AS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES COMBINED
WITH THE HUMIDITY WILL EQUATE TO HEAT INDICES NEAR 110 DEGREES.

NCZ007-021>023-038-039-240815-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
406 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY AS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S COMBINED WITH THE HUMIDITY WILL EQUATE
TO HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 23, 9:44 AM EDT, 4 hours 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
944 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DOBBINS HEIGHTS         34.90N  79.69W
07/22/2011                   RICHMOND           NC   PUBLIC

            HOMEOWNER AT 124 DOBBINS STREET CALLED TO REPORT TWO
            LARGE OAK TREES UPROOTED CAUSING DAMAGE TO PROPERTY
            FENCES AS WELL AS THE HOUSE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1101051

ELLIS

Special weather statement, Jul 23, 2:06 PM EDT, 1 minute before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
206 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

NCZ074>077-084>086-231900-
HARNETT-HOKE-LEE-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-
206 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS HARNETT...SCOTLAND...
RICHMOND...MOORE...MONTGOMERY...LEE AND HOKE COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM
EDT...

AT 204 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS
HARNETT...SCOTLAND...RICHMOND...MOORE...MONTGOMERY...LEE AND HOKE
COUNTIES.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED
INCLUDE...STAR...BISCOE...SANFORD...ROBBINS...AND CAMP MACKALL.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

BOATERS ON THE OPEN WATER AND THOSE CAMPING OUTDOORS ARE ESPECIALLY
VULNERABLE TO THE DANGERS OF LIGHTNING. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE
HARBOR. THOSE CAMPING SHOULD TAKE SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR
VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3463 7946 3480 7968 3481 7992 3490 7985
      3505 7988 3512 7993 3511 8007 3537 8005
      3550 8018 3552 7934 3563 7912 3553 7897
      3558 7890 3552 7869 3533 7853 3525 7862
      3519 7909 3495 7903 3483 7919 3484 7935
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 345DEG 4KT 3546 7978

ELLIS

Special weather statement, Jul 23, 2:07 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
207 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

NCZ021-022-231930-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-
207 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS GUILFORD AND
FORSYTH COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 202 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM STONEVILLE TO PILOT
MOUNTAIN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILS NORTHWEST OF
WINSTON SALEM TO 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF GREENSBORO...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...DONNAHA...RURAL
HALL...STANLEYVILLE...LEWISVILLE...PFAFFTOWN...STOKESDALE...
WALKERTOWN ...AND GREENSBORO.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

DON'T WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM
YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3614 8044 3627 8045 3625 7954 3610 7954
      3596 7959 3591 7984 3592 8004 3601 8004
      3603 8013 3602 8021 3600 8022 3599 8032
      3597 8040 3599 8043 3603 8044 3609 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 1806Z 310DEG 17KT 3651 7993 3622 8054

MWS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Raleigh, NC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 23, 2:06 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Harnett, Hoke, Lee, Montgomery, Moore, Richmond and 1 more	54 min
Jul 23, 2:16 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Johnston, Wake	59 min
Jul 23, 2:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Harnett, Johnston	46 min
Jul 23, 2:43 PM EDT	Heat Advisory	RAH	Anson, Chatham, Cumberland, Durham, Edgecombe, Franklin and 19 more	28 hr
Jul 23, 2:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Johnston, Wayne, Wilson	46 min
Jul 23, 3:15 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Cumberland, Harnett, Johnston, Sampson	45 min
Jul 23, 3:47 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Guilford	58 min
Jul 23, 4:01 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Sampson	59 min
Jul 23, 4:19 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Edgecombe, Halifax, Wilson	41 min
Jul 23, 4:44 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Franklin, Johnston, Nash, Wake, Wilson	26 min
Jul 23, 5:17 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Sampson	58 min
Jul 23, 5:23 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Sampson	15 min
Jul 23, 5:56 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Lee	64 min
Jul 23, 6:11 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Harnett, Wake	30 min
Jul 23, 6:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Johnston	32 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in North Carolina, 2011 Every special weather statement in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.