Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION TODAY THEN
DRIFT WEST ON SUNDAY. EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HOT CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM...

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. WITH MINIMALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
MINIMALLY DRIER AIR SUNDAY... NO WARNINGS AT THIS TIME... A HEAT
ADVISORY ROCKINGHAM EAST NORTHEAST TO GOLDSBORO.

DEWPOINTS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DROPPED INTO THE MID
60S FRIDAY. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE TODAY ONCE AGAIN.

VORTICITY CENTER OVER THE VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS TO MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT... THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EARLY TONIGHT WILL
WARRANT CHANCE POPS IN SPOTS WITH DECREASING COVERAGE LATE EVENING
BUT PERSISTING INTO THE LATE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MID TO UPPER
70S.

A VERY MINOR DROP IN THICKNESS AND 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES
FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR SUNDAY. PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST VERTICAL
AIR MASS PROFILES LITTLE CHANGED FROM THAT OF TODAY. WITH THE BEST
WINDS AGAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST... THESE AREAS SLIGHTLY
PREFERRED FOR AFTERNOON CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTION... BUT CHANCES
REMAIN SLIGHT AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES PERHAPS TO TAKE ANOTHER
DEGREE FALL FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. DEWPOINTS AGAIN MAY SLIP INTO
THE MID 60S IN SPOTS. CURRENT FORECAST WOULD JUSTIFY A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF OUR EXTREME SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 90S TO NEAR 100. MOSTLY MID 70S FOR LOWER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...

MON AND MON NIGHT: THE RETROGRESSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...AND
ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDING A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA...WILL RESULT IN IMPROVED FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE AND
CONSEQUENT INCREASED PROBABILITY/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD. PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES IN THE
1435 TO 1445 METER RANGE WOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S...BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/STORMS INSTEAD FAVOR TEMPS 2-3
DEGREES LOWER ON AVERAGE...GENERALLY IN THE 92 TO 97 DEGREE RANGE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT: THE CONSENSUS OF NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED MOIST AXIS -- AND THE ATTENDING
SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS -- WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SANDHILLS...SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...AND CENTRAL-SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN TUE AFTERNOON...WHERE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE MOST LIKELY
TO DEVELOP. TO THE NORTH...ROUGHLY NORTH OF HWY 64...DEEP LAYER
DRYING AND LIGHT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LESS THAN 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS. THIS
SHOULD ALSO BE THE LEAST HOT PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM SATURDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION THIS PERIOD. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB STEADILY FROM
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S WED TO UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES
FRI-SAT...WITH LIMITED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64 AT
THIS TIME WITH OTHER SHOWERS TO ADVECT INTO THE TRIAD AREA FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SHORTLY. VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THESE
SHOWERS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR
HAZE OR FOG NEAR SUNRISE WHERE RAINS ARE HEAVIEST THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 11 PM WITH A FEW SHOWERS
PERSISTING WELL PAST MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
TODAY IN DOWNDRAFTS... WELL AWAY FROM ANY STORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THEN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY AFTERNOON. A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THEN
SLIGHT MAINLY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. SOME MVFR FOG
OR HAZE PRIOR TO SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
GSO                                    RDU

DATE     HIGH/YEAR    HIGH MIN/YEAR    HIGH/YEAR  HIGH MIN/YEAR

SAT 23:   99/1952       78/2010        105/1952       76/2010
SUN 24:   96/2010       78/2010        100/2010       79/2010

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ078-084>086-
088-089.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ007-021>023-
038-039.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...
CLIMATE...RAH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
401 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>077-083-242015-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-
CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-
ANSON-
401 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ007-021>023-038-039-242015-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
401 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ078-084>086-088-089-242015-
WAYNE-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
401 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
216 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

NCZ041-042-231915-
JOHNSTON-WAKE-
216 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS JOHNSTON AND WAKE
COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 215 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING THROUGH JOHNSTON AND WAKE COUNTIES.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...HOLLY
SPRINGS...ROLESVILLE...CLAYTON...SMITHFIELD...AND...SELMA.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

BOATERS ON THE OPEN WATER AND THOSE CAMPING OUTDOORS ARE ESPECIALLY
VULNERABLE TO THE DANGERS OF LIGHTNING. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE
HARBOR. THOSE CAMPING SHOULD TAKE SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR
VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3599 7845 3587 7828 3577 7825 3561 7813
      3559 7807 3542 7816 3535 7816 3525 7841
      3526 7849 3552 7869 3561 7899 3586 7891
      3587 7883 3593 7881 3592 7876 3597 7871
      3601 7870 3603 7875 3607 7875 3607 7868
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 294DEG 8KT 3559 7849

ELLIS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
347 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

NCZ021-022-038-039-232045-
DAVIDSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-RANDOLPH-
347 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS RANDOLPH...GUILFORD...
FORSYTH AND DAVIDSON COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 347 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
JAMESTOWN...OR ABOUT 5 MILES NORTH OF HIGH POINT...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...JAMESTOWN...
GREENSBORO.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 8008 3625 7954 3615 7953 3583 7966
      3595 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 276DEG 9KT 3605 7997

23

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
358 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE NEWTON GROVE      35.26N  78.33W
07/23/2011                   SAMPSON            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            SAMPSON CO 911 RECEIVED REPORT OF ONE TREE DOWN ACROSS
            RD AT 1650 GOLDSBORO HWY IN NEWTON GROVE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1101054

TDH

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