Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
941 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
TODAY... ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...

     SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A PRIMARY RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES...

     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH 11
AM THIS MORNING...

SPECIAL FORT BRAGG SOUNDING INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH
DEEP NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAYER EXTENDING SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET ABOVE
THE JET. STRONGLY CAPPED WELL MIXED SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER.
MORNING GREENSBORO SOUNDING LI AT MINUS FIVE WITH ZERO TO THREE
KILOMETER HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2 BUT RELATIVELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL. TORNADO AND NON THUNDERSTORM HIGH WIND THREATS
CONTINUE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE AREAS. REFERENCE OTHER SHORT TERM
PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS AND LOCATIONS.

ACTUAL FRONT DEFINED BY WEAK SHOWERS ENTERING THE FOOTHILLS AT 9 AM.
THIS FRONT WILL ONLY SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST... WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE IN THE WARM AIR MASS.
MID LEVEL WINDS SUBSIDE FROM CURRENT FIFTY MPH WINDS NEAR 2500
FEET TO 25 TO 30 MPH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BEFORE NOON. WINDS NEAR FIVE THOUSAND FEET EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95 DO NOT SIGNIFICANTLY SUBSIDE UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN THE EARLY EVENING.

CATEGORICAL POPS THIS MORNING CONTINUE WITH CHANCES DROPPING TO
CHANCE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. CURRENT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF LOWER 80S DEPENDENT ON RAIN TIMING AND
LOCATION AND WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE. WILL RISK LOWERING SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OF MODEL OUTPUT... WILL TREND POPS
OUT OF THE ERN CWA BY EARLY EVENING. THE 850 MB TROUGH LAGS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT BY SEVERAL HOURS... SO WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS LINGER UNTIL LATE EVENING BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. LOWS
48-55.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND A
LAST SHOT OF DPVA FINALLY SHIFTS OVERHEAD FRIDAY... AND LINGERING
MOISTURE ATOP THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ABOUT 10 M
BELOW NORMAL... EXPECT HIGHS OF 70-75. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
SUBSIDENCE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES... WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE
BELOW-NORMAL THICKNESSES. HIGHS SATURDAY 73-78. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE AND RIDGING ALOFT HOLING
OVER THE AREA. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES TOPPING OUT NEAR 1390
METERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON... EXPECT MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THE NEXT TROUGH ALOFT. HOWEVER... THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECWMF HAVE
COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH
THE PROGRESSION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT AT OUR LATITUDE.
THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S....
WHICH RESULTS IN THE FRONT HANGING UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA... AND CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY (WITH A CLOSED
LOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA). THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW ANY
ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND INTO THE
BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH AS IT AMPLIFIES. THIS SOLUTION PROVIDES A
DEEPER AND MORE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW WILL TREND
MORE TOWARDS THE ECWMF... WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH HPC. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ULTIMATELY. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY... HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WITH A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY.
WILL GO WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...

AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH 16Z... EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CIGS... SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE S OR SSW AT 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO
18-30 KTS... AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITHIN SHOWERS AND STRONG
STORMS. CURRENT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ISOLATED TO FEW... BUT AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST... A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY IT... FROM
17Z-21Z AT INT/GSO... 18Z-22Z AT RDU... AND 19Z-23Z AT RWI/FAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT SUDDENLY FROM SSW TO WSW WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. CIGS
WILL TREND TO VFR THEN UNLIMITED WEST TO EAST FROM 21Z-23Z WITH
QUICKLY DIMINISHING WEST WINDS.

LOOKING BEYOND FRIDAY MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ009>011-
026>028-040>043-075>078-085-086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
755 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

NCZ007-008-021>025-038-039-073-074-083-084-291200-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-DAVIDSON-
RANDOLPH-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-ANSON-RICHMOND-
755 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 250 IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ009>011-026>028-040>043-075>078-085-086-088-089-291200-
VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-
WILSON-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
755 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...TORNADO WATCH 250 IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1020 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1002 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST LAURINBURG MAXTON APT   34.79N  79.37W
04/28/2011  M40 MPH          SCOTLAND           NC   ASOS

            KMEB GUSTED 35 KNOTS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100588

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1022 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST SEYMOUR JOHNSON AFB     35.34N  77.97W
04/28/2011  M41 MPH          WAYNE              NC   AWOS

            KGSB GUSTED TO 36 KNOTS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100589

VINCENT

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