Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
340 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THROUGH THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH TODAY... ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A PRIMARY RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TRIAD/ROXBORO AREAS THROUGH 8
AM... AND MORE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING. THE
DEVASTATING TORNADO OUTBREAK ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND GULF STATES
INTO THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST HAS ABATED SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS... ALTHOUGH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO REPORTS CONTINUE
TO COME IN OVER WRN NC... WITH A PARTICULARLY POTENT SUPERCELL OVER
THE CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS. SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER CENTRAL
NC REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH A STOUT GUSTY SOUTHERLY
FLOW... YIELDING STRONG DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER 40 KTS OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA... HOWEVER MLCAPE HAS TRAILED OFF WITH THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY SUPPRESSED ACROSS GA/SRN SC... AND MAINLY ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL NC. NEVERTHELESS... WITH RUC-ANALYZED 0-1
KM SRH STILL OVER 500 M2/S2 OVER THE NW CWA AND RATHER LONG CURVING
HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE LOWEST 2 KM... THE THREAT OF A POSSIBLY
TORNADIC SUPERCELL SURVIVING AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THIS
ENVIRONMENT PERSISTS THROUGH THIS MORNING... AND THE INTENSE WIND
FIELD THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW KM SUPPORTS A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
BOWING SEGMENTS AS WELL.

AFTER SUNRISE... MODELS AGREE THAT THE 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET NOW
STRETCHING OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THIS JET WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES. THE BETTER MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS PASS TO OUR
NORTH AS WELL... BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN
OVER 7 C/KM... AND MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO NEAR 1500 J/KG
ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 BY LATE MORNING... WITH
DECREASING YET STILL IMPRESSIVE 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR OVER 50 KTS. THE
INITIALLY LONG CURVED HODOGRAPHS STRAIGHTEN OUT BY 18Z... SUGGESTING
A SHIFT FROM A MAINLY TORNADO THREAT TO A MAINLY DAMAGING WIND
THREAT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD CENTRAL NC. IN GENERAL
THOUGH... WITH THE DECREASE IN DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AS
INITIALLY VERY INTENSE UPPER DIVERGENCE (IN THE IDEALLY JUXTAPOSED
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SRLY UPPER JET OVER MI AND THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE ELONGATED JET TO OUR WEST) SLOWLY DECREASES... WE
SHOULD NOT SEE NEARLY THE EXTREME STORM INTENSITY AS THEY HAVE SEEN
WELL TO OUR W/SW IN THE LAST 48 HOURS. HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS THROUGH
THE MORNING... TRANSLATING EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DECREASING WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 21Z. HIGHS 77-84 WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 15-20 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OF MODEL OUTPUT... WILL TREND POPS
OUT OF THE ERN CWA BY EARLY EVENING. THE 850 MB TROUGH LAGS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT BY SEVERAL HOURS... SO WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS LINGER UNTIL LATE EVENING BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. LOWS
48-55.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND A
LAST SHOT OF DCVA FINALLY SHIFTS OVERHEAD FRIDAY... AND LINGERING
MOISTURE ATOP THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ABOUT 10 M
BELOW NORMAL... EXPECT HIGHS OF 70-75. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
SUBSIDENCE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES... WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE
BELOW-NORMAL THICKNESSES. HIGHS SATURDAY 73-78. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE AND RIDGING ALOFT HOLING
OVER THE AREA. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES TOPPING OUT NEAR 1390
METERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON... EXPECT MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THE NEXT TROUGH ALOFT. HOWEVER... THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECWMF HAVE
COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH
THE PROGRESSION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT AT OUR LATITUDE.
THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S....
WHICH RESULTS IN THE FRONT HANGING UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA... AND CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY (WITH A CLOSED
LOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA). THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW ANY
ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND INTO THE
BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH AS IT AMPLIFIES. THIS SOLUTION PROVIDES A
DEEPER AND MORE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW WILL TREND
MORE TOWARDS THE ECWMF... WHICH IS MORE INLINE WITH HPC. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ULTIMATELY. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY... HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WITH A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY.
WILL GO WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY...

IFR TO LIFR CIGS EXPECTED IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. CIGS WILL BREAK OUT TO MVFR TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN 19Z-22Z. GRADIENT WINDS TODAY
WILL BE SOUTH AT 15-30KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35KT BECOMING SW THEN W
BY LATE TODAY AND DECREASING TO 10KT OR LESS BY AROUND 00Z-02Z/FRI.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRI-SUN.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING LOWER CIGS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN BY MONDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...BADGETT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
131 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

NCZ008>011-025>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-281845-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-
CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-
WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
131 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ007-021>024-038-039-281845-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
131 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 247 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. NIGHTTIME TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS. OVER EIGHTY PERCENT OF ALL TORNADO DEATHS IN NORTH
CAROLINA OCCUR AT NIGHT. HAVING A NOAA WEATHER RADIO READY TO
ALERT YOU TO WARNINGS AT NIGHT COULD SAVE YOUR LIFE.

TORNADOES CAN SEVERELY DAMAGE OR DESTROY HOMES... AND OVERTURN
VEHICLES. MOST TORNADO FATALITIES OCCUR IN MOBILE HOMES. IF A
TORNADO APPROACHES OR A WARNING IS ISSUED...ABANDON MOBILE HOMES
QUICKLY AND SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING.

MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR BY VISITING OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RALEIGH. YOU CAN ALSO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST
WEATHER ON A WEB ENABLED CELL PHONE OR OTHER MOBILE DEVICE BY
VISITING HTTP://MOBILE.WEATHER.GOV.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1011 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             5 NW HIGH POINT         36.03N  80.06W
04/27/2011  E1.00 INCH       FORSYTH            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL NEAR KERNERSVILLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100549

SEC

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