Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
TODAY... ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A PRIMARY RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TRIAD/ROXBORO AREAS THROUGH 8
AM... AND MORE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING. THE
DEVASTATING TORNADO OUTBREAK ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND GULF STATES
INTO THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST HAS ABATED SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS... ALTHOUGH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO REPORTS CONTINUE
TO COME IN OVER WRN NC... WITH A PARTICULARLY POTENT SUPERCELL OVER
THE CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS. SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER CENTRAL
NC REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH A STOUT GUSTY SOUTHERLY
FLOW... YIELDING STRONG DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER 40 KTS OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA... HOWEVER MLCAPE HAS TRAILED OFF WITH THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY SUPPRESSED ACROSS GA/SRN SC... AND MAINLY ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL NC. NEVERTHELESS... WITH RUC-ANALYZED 0-1
KM SRH STILL OVER 500 M2/S2 OVER THE NW CWA AND RATHER LONG CURVING
HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE LOWEST 2 KM... THE THREAT OF A POSSIBLY
TORNADIC SUPERCELL SURVIVING AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THIS
ENVIRONMENT PERSISTS THROUGH THIS MORNING... AND THE INTENSE WIND
FIELD THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW KM SUPPORTS A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
BOWING SEGMENTS AS WELL.

AFTER SUNRISE... MODELS AGREE THAT THE 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET NOW
STRETCHING OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THIS JET WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES. THE BETTER MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS PASS TO OUR
NORTH AS WELL... BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN
OVER 7 C/KM... AND MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO NEAR 1500 J/KG
ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 BY LATE MORNING... WITH
DECREASING YET STILL IMPRESSIVE 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR OVER 50 KTS. THE
INITIALLY LONG CURVED HODOGRAPHS STRAIGHTEN OUT BY 18Z... SUGGESTING
A SHIFT FROM A MAINLY TORNADO THREAT TO A MAINLY DAMAGING WIND
THREAT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD CENTRAL NC. IN GENERAL
THOUGH... WITH THE DECREASE IN DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AS
INITIALLY VERY INTENSE UPPER DIVERGENCE (IN THE IDEALLY JUXTAPOSED
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SRLY UPPER JET OVER MI AND THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE ELONGATED JET TO OUR WEST) SLOWLY DECREASES... WE
SHOULD NOT SEE NEARLY THE EXTREME STORM INTENSITY AS THEY HAVE SEEN
WELL TO OUR W/SW IN THE LAST 48 HOURS. HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS THROUGH
THE MORNING... TRANSLATING EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DECREASING WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 21Z. HIGHS 77-84 WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 15-20 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OF MODEL OUTPUT... WILL TREND POPS
OUT OF THE ERN CWA BY EARLY EVENING. THE 850 MB TROUGH LAGS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT BY SEVERAL HOURS... SO WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS LINGER UNTIL LATE EVENING BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. LOWS
48-55.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND A
LAST SHOT OF DCVA FINALLY SHIFTS OVERHEAD FRIDAY... AND LINGERING
MOISTURE ATOP THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ABOUT 10 M
BELOW NORMAL... EXPECT HIGHS OF 70-75. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
SUBSIDENCE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES... WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE
BELOW-NORMAL THICKNESSES. HIGHS SATURDAY 73-78. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE AND RIDGING ALOFT HOLING
OVER THE AREA. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES TOPPING OUT NEAR 1390
METERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON... EXPECT MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THE NEXT TROUGH ALOFT. HOWEVER... THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECWMF HAVE
COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH
THE PROGRESSION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT AT OUR LATITUDE.
THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S....
WHICH RESULTS IN THE FRONT HANGING UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA... AND CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY (WITH A CLOSED
LOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA). THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW ANY
ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND INTO THE
BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH AS IT AMPLIFIES. THIS SOLUTION PROVIDES A
DEEPER AND MORE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW WILL TREND
MORE TOWARDS THE ECWMF... WHICH IS MORE INLINE WITH HPC. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ULTIMATELY. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY... HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WITH A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY.
WILL GO WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...

AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH 16Z... EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CIGS... SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE S OR SSW AT 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO
18-30 KTS... AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITHIN SHOWERS AND STRONG
STORMS. CURRENT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ISOLATED TO FEW... BUT AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST... A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY IT... FROM
17Z-21Z AT INT/GSO... 18Z-22Z AT RDU... AND 19Z-23Z AT RWI/FAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT SUDDENLY FROM SSW TO WSW WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. CIGS
WILL TREND TO VFR THEN UNLIMITED WEST TO EAST FROM 21Z-23Z WITH
QUICKLY DIMINISHING WEST WINDS.

LOOKING BEYOND FRIDAY MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
610 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

NCZ011-021-022-027-028-038-039-042-043-073-074-078-083>086-088-089-
281300-
HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-JOHNSTON-
WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
610 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 250 IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. TORNADOES CAN STRIKE QUICKLY... CAUSING
EXTENSIVE DAMAGE... WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE HAIL QUARTER
SIZE OR LARGER AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 58 MPH AND GREATER.

TORNADO WINDS CAN DESTROY MOBILE HOMES...SEVERELY DAMAGE HOMES AND
BUILDINGS... OVERTURN VEHICLES... AND COLLAPSE ROOFS. IF A
TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED OR A TORNADO IS MOVING TOWARDS YOUR
AREA... ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY
BUILDING.

IF YOU ARE INDOORS... TAKE SHELTER IN A BASEMENT. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE... GO TO THE LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A
CLOSET OR BATHROOM. IF YOU ARE DRIVING AND A TORNADO THREATENS...
SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING.

MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR BY VISITING OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RALEIGH. YOU CAN ALSO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST
WEATHER ON A WEB ENABLED CELL PHONE OR OTHER MOBILE DEVICE BY
VISITING HTTP://MOBILE.WEATHER.GOV.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ007>010-023>026-040-041-075>077-281300-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-
CHATHAM-WAKE-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-
610 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...TORNADO WATCH 250 IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   TORNADO WATCH.

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. TORNADOES CAN STRIKE QUICKLY... CAUSING
EXTENSIVE DAMAGE... WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE HAIL QUARTER
SIZE OR LARGER AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 58 MPH AND GREATER.

TORNADO WINDS CAN DESTROY MOBILE HOMES...SEVERELY DAMAGE HOMES AND
BUILDINGS... OVERTURN VEHICLES... AND COLLAPSE ROOFS. IF A
TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED OR A TORNADO IS MOVING TOWARDS YOUR
AREA... ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY
BUILDING.

IF YOU ARE INDOORS... TAKE SHELTER IN A BASEMENT. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE... GO TO THE LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A
CLOSET OR BATHROOM. IF YOU ARE DRIVING AND A TORNADO THREATENS...
SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING.

MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR BY VISITING OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RALEIGH. YOU CAN ALSO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST
WEATHER ON A WEB ENABLED CELL PHONE OR OTHER MOBILE DEVICE BY
VISITING HTTP://MOBILE.WEATHER.GOV.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
706 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 NE SEVEN LAKES        35.30N  79.54W
04/28/2011                   MOORE              NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ONE TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN ACROSS BEULAH HILL CHURCH
            ROAD NEAR DOWD ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100559

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
715 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 6 WSW SURL              36.30N  78.98W
04/28/2011                   PERSON             NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN ACROSS FRANK TIMBERLAKE ROAD
            NEAR US HIGHWAY 501.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100560

BSD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
718 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-088-089-281300-
HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-WAYNE-CUMBERLAND-
SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROANOKE RAPIDS...NASHVILLE...
ROCKY MOUNT...SMITHFIELD...WILSON...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...
FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
718 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

AN AREA OF STRONG WINDS...AWAY FROM ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NC COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH 9 AM.
ASSOCIATED WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE INTO THE 35 AND 45 MPH
RANGE FOR LESS THAN 30 MINUTES IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION...THEN
SUBSIDE INTO THE SUSTAINED 15 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN A FEW SMALL
TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN
FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

MWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
720 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 ESE ROXBORO           36.39N  78.94W
04/28/2011                   PERSON             NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ONE TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN ACROSS RUFF DAVIS ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100561

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
724 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 NW ROXBORO            36.43N  79.03W
04/28/2011                   PERSON             NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            POWER LINES WERE REPORTED DOWN ACROSS MORTON PULLIAM
            ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100562

BSD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

NCZ075-077-086-088-281215-
CUMBERLAND-HARNETT-HOKE-MOORE-
730 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS
HARNETT...MOORE...CUMBERLAND AND HOKE COUNTIES THROUGH 815 AM EDT...

AT 727 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM ABOUT 10
MILES NORTHWEST OF FORT BRAGG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. THIS
STORM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THESE WINDS COULD
BLOW DOWN TREES AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE POWER OUTAGES.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...TIMBERLAKE...AND...
ANDERSON CREEK...LILLINGTON...BUIES CREEK...ANGIER.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA.

AN EXTREME WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH 8 AM THIS
MORNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3525 7929 3532 7921 3531 7919 3550 7899
      3558 7890 3551 7868 3538 7858 3508 7913
TIME...MOT...LOC 1127Z 233DEG 53KT 3526 7910

13