Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Raleigh, NC

685 
WWUS52 KRAH 182341
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
741 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

NCC101-183-190000-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0143.000000T0000Z-110619T0000Z/
WAKE NC-JOHNSTON NC-
741 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT 
FOR EASTERN JOHNSTON AND EASTERN WAKE...

AT 740 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR WENDELL... MOVING EAST AT 45 
MPH. 

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... WENDELL... EMIT. 

WIND DAMAGE WITH THIS STORM MAY OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF ANY RAIN OR 
LIGHTNING. DO NOT WAIT FOR THE SOUND OF THUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER. 
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3599 7846 3587 7828 3575 7824 3571 7816
      3561 7813 3559 7807 3542 7816 3535 7816
      3532 7826 3528 7831 3527 7837 3529 7838
      3527 7839 3535 7842 3558 7840
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 261DEG 25KT 3555 7817

$$

BADGETT

010 
WWUS52 KRAH 182352
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
752 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

NCC101-183-190002-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0143.000000T0000Z-110619T0000Z/
WAKE NC-JOHNSTON NC-
752 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN JOHNSTON AND EASTERN 
WAKE COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 800 PM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND 
THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

LAT...LON 3599 7846 3587 7828 3575 7824 3571 7816
      3561 7813 3559 7807 3542 7816 3535 7816
      3532 7826 3528 7831 3527 7837 3529 7838
      3527 7839 3535 7842 3558 7840
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 261DEG 25KT 3556 7807

$$

BADGETT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

WATCHING A LONG LIVED MCS MOVING INTO THE FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPED NEAR KSTL LAST NIGHT AROUND 02Z
AND HAS MADE STEADY PROGRESS EAST AND SOUTHEAST TODAY. NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE WFO GSP CWA.

ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NC OFFERS MIXED SIGNALS FOR THE CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. MLCAPES IN RAH CWA RANGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
MORE THAN 500 J/KG WHILE MLCAPES TO THE WEST ARE 2 OR 3 TIMES
GREATER. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IMPRESSIVE IN CENTRAL NC BUT DEW
POINTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. LOW AND MID
LEVEL WINDS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. RECENT ANALYSIS AND FCST
DATA OVER THE FOOTHILLS NOTES BULK SHEAR OF 30 KTS OR SO WHILE
SHEAR IS CLOSER TO 10-15 KTS IN CENTRAL NC PER RECENT AMDAR
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS AT KRDU. MULTIPLE HIGH RESOLUTION WRF
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE MCS WILL
SHIFT SE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTHERN CAROLINA WITH
PERHAPS A MINIMUM IN CENTRAL NC.

RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND REPORTS SUGGEST THAT THE LINE IS REFORMING
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME DECREASE IN CONVERGE AND INTENSITY IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE LINE MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE
AIR MASS...HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED IN THE WEST. WILL
FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA LINEARLY THIS EVENING AND KEEP
GREATEST POPS IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS ONGOING TO OUR WEST AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM
DAMAGING WINDS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 68 AND 74
DEGREES.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS A SFC
BOUNDARY DROPS INTO SOUTHERN VA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF DISTURBANCES
MOVE TOWARD THE REGION IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD PART
OF CENTRAL NC IS IN A SLIGHT RISK AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH A GROWING
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS MORE UNSTABLE ON SUNDAY
AS DEW POINTS REACH INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 90S IN MANY LOCATIONS. -BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS VA/NC WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION MORE EARNESTLY BY TUESDAY.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST NC AND
SOUTHWEST VA BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVING QUICKLY OFFSHORE.
THIS MAY ALLOW A BRIEF BACKDOOR BOUNDARY TO SLIP INTO NORTHEAST
NC.    HOWEVER..SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD RESUME BY
MIDDAY...ALLOWING MOST AREAS TO DESTABILIZE AS PW VALUES HOVER
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES.  CONVECTIVE IMPULSE INFRINGING ON THE CWA
FROM THE NW LATER IN THE DAY MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BASED ON RECENT INABILITY OF MODELS TO HANDLE
THESE MESOSCALE PERTURBATIONS.  HIGHS LIKE TO BE HELD DOWN SLIGHTLY
IN THE NORTHEAST DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...BUT LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES RISING ABOVE 1420M SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S.  LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AROUND 70.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FORECASTS CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE
1430M OR AS HIGH AS 1440M.  HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S...MAYBE
100...SEEM POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS TOWARD THIS COMMON
SOLUTION.  DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...PROVIDED WEAK MIXING
OCCURS...WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 99-103 RANGE IN THE EAST.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK VERY SLIM WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD...THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN US WILL BREAK
THE UPPER RIDGE DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  HOWEVER...QUESTIONS
STILL REMAIN AS TO HOW QUICKLY AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO HOW MUCH IF ANY PRECIP
CAN BE EXPECTED.  FORECAST WILL SHOW INCREASING POPS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.  HIGHS GENERALLY 89-94 EACH DAY. LOWS AROUND 70 STILL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT THE GREATEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NW PIEDMONT TAF LOCATION (KINT AND KGSO) BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z AS
A LINE OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIAN MTNS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT SCT TO OCCASIONALLY
BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 5-6KT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND PERIODS
OF BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD FROM SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A PERIOD
OF HOT AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. A MAINLY AFTN OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. -BLAES

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...BLAES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
616 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

NCZ009>011-026>028-042-043-078-088-089-192230-
VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-WAYNE-
CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
616 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WILL
CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105
DEGREES...HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS...AND
COASTAL PLAIN OF NC...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NCZ021-022-038-039-073-074-083-192230-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-ANSON-
616 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
EARLY THIS EVENING. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WILL
CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105
DEGREES...HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS...AND
COASTAL PLAIN OF NC...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NCZ007-008-023>025-040-041-075>077-084>086-192230-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-CHATHAM-WAKE-MOORE-LEE-
HARNETT-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
616 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THIS LINE OF STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WILL
CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105
DEGREES...HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS...AND
COASTAL PLAIN OF NC...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
630 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAURINBURG              34.77N  79.47W
06/18/2011                   SCOTLAND           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ACROSS COUNTY

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100798

SEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
632 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 N LIBERTY             35.95N  79.55W
06/18/2011                   GUILFORD           NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            SIX INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100799

BLAES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
642 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW BOWMORE           34.97N  79.32W
06/18/2011                   HOKE               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON FULFORD MCMILLAN ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100800

SEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
653 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHAPEL HILL             35.93N  79.04W
06/18/2011                   ORANGE             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100801

SEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
656 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SANFORD                 35.48N  79.18W
06/18/2011                   LEE                NC   911 CALL CENTER

            APPROXIMATELY 6 TREES DOWN IN LEE COUNTY

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100802

SEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ASHEBORO                35.72N  79.81W
06/18/2011                   RANDOLPH           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN RANDOLPH COUNTY

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100803

SEC