Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Raleigh, NC

June 18, 20114 counties in North Carolina

NWS Raleigh, NC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 18, 2011, 6:39 PM EDT for 4 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 51 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jun 18, 2011, 6:39 PM EDT (22:39 UTC)
Expired: Jun 18, 2011, 7:30 PM EDT
In force: 51 min
Issued by: NWS Raleigh, NC
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Durham County, NC, Granville County, NC, Person County, NC, Wake County, NC

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jun 18, 6:45 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	2 Wsw Bethesda, NC	TREE DOWN AT 645 PM

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 6 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 18, 3:38 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	4 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 118 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 166 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -76 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1389 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -56 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

880 
WUUS52 KRAH 182239
SVRRAH
NCC063-077-145-183-182330-
/O.NEW.KRAH.SV.W.0141.110618T2239Z-110618T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
639 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN DURHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
  GRANVILLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
  SOUTHEASTERN PERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
  NORTH CENTRAL WAKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 730 PM EDT

* AT 636 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SURL TO 
  PARKWOOD...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ROXBORO TO 7 MILES SOUTH
  OF DURHAM...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH ARE 
  LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. THE WINDS ARE OCCURRING 5 TO 10 MILES 
  AHEAD OF THE HEAVY RAIN. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BETHESDA...
  MORIAH...GORMAN...
  BUTNER...
  OAK HILL...STEM...
  CREEDMOOR...
  OXFORD...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3652 7848 3652 7849 3646 7851 3617 7851
      3613 7851 3609 7854 3602 7855 3587 7883
      3588 7891 3642 7892 3654 7847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 269DEG 18KT 3638 7891 3588 7891

$$

WSS

3 follow-up statements

117 
WWUS52 KRAH 182256 RRA
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
656 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

NCC145-182303-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0141.000000T0000Z-110618T2330Z/
PERSON NC-
656 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PERSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND 
THE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3654 7847 3649 7851 3614 7851 3610 7854
      3602 7855 3589 7879 3645 7880
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 269DEG 18KT 3638 7881 3588 7881

$$

NCC063-077-183-182330-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0141.000000T0000Z-110618T2330Z/
DURHAM NC-GRANVILLE NC-WAKE NC-
656 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL WAKE...GRANVILLE AND EAST CENTRAL DURHAM
COUNTIES...

AT 654 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OAK HILL TO 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PURNELL...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES EAST OF ROXBORO TO 7 MILES NORTH
OF CARY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. NUMEROUS TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN 
ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY BETWEEN 615 AND 625 PM EDT.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... BUTNER...BEREA...
STEM...CREEDMOOR...OXFORD AND STOVALL.

WIND DAMAGE WITH THIS STORM WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF ANY RAIN OR
LIGHTNING. DO NOT WAIT FOR THE SOUND OF THUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER.
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3654 7847 3649 7851 3614 7851 3610 7854
      3602 7855 3589 7879 3645 7880
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 269DEG 18KT 3638 7881 3588 7881

$$

WSS

197 
WWUS52 KRAH 182319
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
719 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

NCC063-183-182327-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0141.000000T0000Z-110618T2330Z/
DURHAM NC-WAKE NC-
719 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL WAKE AND EAST
CENTRAL DURHAM COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND 
THE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3654 7847 3648 7851 3615 7851 3610 7854
      3602 7855 3604 7860 3651 7859
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 269DEG 18KT 3638 7866 3588 7866

$$

NCC077-182330-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0141.000000T0000Z-110618T2330Z/
GRANVILLE NC-
719 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN GRANVILLE COUNTY...

AT 718 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF OXFORD TO 30 MILES
SOUTH OF OXFORD...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
OXFORD TO RALEIGH...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... STOVALL.

WIND DAMAGE WITH THIS STORM WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF ANY RAIN OR
LIGHTNING. DO NOT WAIT FOR THE SOUND OF THUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER.
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE ACROSS ORANGE 
COUNTY WITH A REPORT OF A TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE NEAR R T P.
SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM 
WINDOWS!

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3654 7847 3648 7851 3615 7851 3610 7854
      3602 7855 3604 7860 3651 7859
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 269DEG 18KT 3638 7866 3588 7866

$$

WSS

767 
WWUS52 KRAH 182326
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
726 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

NCC077-182335-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0141.000000T0000Z-110618T2330Z/
GRANVILLE NC-
726 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN GRANVILLE COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 730 PM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND 
THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3654 7847 3648 7851 3615 7851 3610 7854
      3602 7855 3604 7860 3651 7859
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 269DEG 18KT 3638 7861 3588 7861

$$

WSS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 18, 3:15 PM EDT, 3 hours 24 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 18, 3:15 PM EDT, 3 hours 24 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

WATCHING A LONG LIVED MCS MOVING INTO THE FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPED NEAR KSTL LAST NIGHT AROUND 02Z
AND HAS MADE STEADY PROGRESS EAST AND SOUTHEAST TODAY. NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE WFO GSP CWA.

ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NC OFFERS MIXED SIGNALS FOR THE CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. MLCAPES IN RAH CWA RANGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
MORE THAN 500 J/KG WHILE MLCAPES TO THE WEST ARE 2 OR 3 TIMES
GREATER. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IMPRESSIVE IN CENTRAL NC BUT DEW
POINTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. LOW AND MID
LEVEL WINDS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. RECENT ANALYSIS AND FCST
DATA OVER THE FOOTHILLS NOTES BULK SHEAR OF 30 KTS OR SO WHILE
SHEAR IS CLOSER TO 10-15 KTS IN CENTRAL NC PER RECENT AMDAR
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS AT KRDU. MULTIPLE HIGH RESOLUTION WRF
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE MCS WILL
SHIFT SE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTHERN CAROLINA WITH
PERHAPS A MINIMUM IN CENTRAL NC.

RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND REPORTS SUGGEST THAT THE LINE IS REFORMING
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME DECREASE IN CONVERGE AND INTENSITY IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE LINE MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE
AIR MASS...HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED IN THE WEST. WILL
FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA LINEARLY THIS EVENING AND KEEP
GREATEST POPS IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS ONGOING TO OUR WEST AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM
DAMAGING WINDS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 68 AND 74
DEGREES.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS A SFC
BOUNDARY DROPS INTO SOUTHERN VA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF DISTURBANCES
MOVE TOWARD THE REGION IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD PART
OF CENTRAL NC IS IN A SLIGHT RISK AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH A GROWING
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS MORE UNSTABLE ON SUNDAY
AS DEW POINTS REACH INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 90S IN MANY LOCATIONS. -BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS VA/NC WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION MORE EARNESTLY BY TUESDAY.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST NC AND
SOUTHWEST VA BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVING QUICKLY OFFSHORE.
THIS MAY ALLOW A BRIEF BACKDOOR BOUNDARY TO SLIP INTO NORTHEAST
NC.    HOWEVER..SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD RESUME BY
MIDDAY...ALLOWING MOST AREAS TO DESTABILIZE AS PW VALUES HOVER
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES.  CONVECTIVE IMPULSE INFRINGING ON THE CWA
FROM THE NW LATER IN THE DAY MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BASED ON RECENT INABILITY OF MODELS TO HANDLE
THESE MESOSCALE PERTURBATIONS.  HIGHS LIKE TO BE HELD DOWN SLIGHTLY
IN THE NORTHEAST DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...BUT LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES RISING ABOVE 1420M SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S.  LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AROUND 70.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FORECASTS CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE
1430M OR AS HIGH AS 1440M.  HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S...MAYBE
100...SEEM POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS TOWARD THIS COMMON
SOLUTION.  DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...PROVIDED WEAK MIXING
OCCURS...WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 99-103 RANGE IN THE EAST.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK VERY SLIM WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD...THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN US WILL BREAK
THE UPPER RIDGE DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  HOWEVER...QUESTIONS
STILL REMAIN AS TO HOW QUICKLY AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO HOW MUCH IF ANY PRECIP
CAN BE EXPECTED.  FORECAST WILL SHOW INCREASING POPS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.  HIGHS GENERALLY 89-94 EACH DAY. LOWS AROUND 70 STILL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT THE GREATEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NW PIEDMONT TAF LOCATION (KINT AND KGSO) BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z AS
A LINE OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIAN MTNS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT SCT TO OCCASIONALLY
BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 5-6KT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND PERIODS
OF BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD FROM SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A PERIOD
OF HOT AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. A MAINLY AFTN OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. -BLAES

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...BLAES

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 18, 6:16 PM EDT, 23 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
616 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

NCZ009>011-026>028-042-043-078-088-089-192230-
VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-WAYNE-
CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
616 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WILL
CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105
DEGREES...HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS...AND
COASTAL PLAIN OF NC...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NCZ021-022-038-039-073-074-083-192230-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-ANSON-
616 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
EARLY THIS EVENING. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WILL
CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105
DEGREES...HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS...AND
COASTAL PLAIN OF NC...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NCZ007-008-023>025-040-041-075>077-084>086-192230-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-CHATHAM-WAKE-MOORE-LEE-
HARNETT-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
616 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THIS LINE OF STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WILL
CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105
DEGREES...HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS...AND
COASTAL PLAIN OF NC...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 18, 6:11 PM EDT, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
611 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW STOKESDALE        36.22N  80.05W
06/18/2011                   FORSYTH            NC   PUBLIC

            18 INCH DIAMETER LIMB DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100794

SEC

Local storm report, Jun 18, 6:18 PM EDT, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
618 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GLEN RAVEN              36.12N  79.47W
06/18/2011                   ALAMANCE           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON DURHAM ST EXTENSION

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100795

SEC

Local storm report, Jun 18, 6:19 PM EDT, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
619 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE BURLINGTON        36.10N  79.44W
06/18/2011                   ALAMANCE           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100796

SEC

Local storm report, Jun 18, 6:26 PM EDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
626 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LINWOOD                 35.75N  80.31W
06/18/2011                   DAVIDSON           NC   PUBLIC

            LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100797

SEC

Local storm report, Jun 18, 6:30 PM EDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
630 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAURINBURG              34.77N  79.47W
06/18/2011                   SCOTLAND           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ACROSS COUNTY

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100798

SEC

Local storm report, Jun 18, 6:32 PM EDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
632 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 N LIBERTY             35.95N  79.55W
06/18/2011                   GUILFORD           NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            SIX INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100799

BLAES

The office that day

Everything else NWS Raleigh, NC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 18, 4:08 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Forsyth	52 min
Jun 18, 4:35 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Davidson, Stanly	55 min
Jun 18, 4:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Davidson, Forsyth, Guilford	40 min
Jun 18, 4:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Stanly	47 min
Jun 18, 4:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Davidson, Guilford, Montgomery, Randolph	57 min
Jun 18, 4:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Anson	62 min
Jun 18, 5:02 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Alamance, Guilford	58 min
Jun 18, 5:12 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Richmond	63 min
Jun 18, 5:19 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Chatham, Lee, Moore, Randolph	56 min
Jun 18, 5:27 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Stanly	16 min
Jun 18, 5:55 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Alamance, Durham, Orange, Person	50 min
Jun 18, 5:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Hoke, Scotland	49 min
Jun 18, 6:07 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Granville, Person	53 min
Jun 18, 6:11 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Chatham, Harnett, Lee, Wake	64 min
Jun 18, 6:22 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Cumberland	53 min
Jun 18, 6:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Sampson	64 min
Jun 18, 7:06 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Johnston, Wake	54 min
Jun 18, 7:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Franklin, Granville, Vance, Warren	61 min
Jun 18, 7:47 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Edgecombe, Nash, Wayne, Wilson	58 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.