Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Raleigh, NC

127 
WWUS52 KRAH 182051
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
451 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

NCC057-067-081-182130-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0129.000000T0000Z-110618T2130Z/
DAVIDSON NC-FORSYTH NC-GUILFORD NC-
451 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR WESTERN GUILFORD...EASTERN FORSYTH AND NORTHEASTERN DAVIDSON
COUNTIES...

AT 448 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SEDGE
GARDEN...OR NEAR WINSTON-SALEM...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... WALKERTOWN...
KERNERSVILLE...BELEWS CREEK...COLFAX...HIGH POINT...STOKESDALE...
SUMMERFIELD...JAMESTOWN AND GREENSBORO.

WIND DAMAGE WITH THIS STORM WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF ANY RAIN OR
LIGHTNING. DO NOT WAIT FOR THE SOUND OF THUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER.
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF YOU OBSERVED DAMAGING WINDS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW 
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3627 8020 3627 8021 3625 7980 3596 7982
      3600 8029
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 272DEG 22KT 3610 8020

$$

WSS

769 
WWUS52 KRAH 182107 RRA
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
507 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

NCC057-067-182116-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0129.000000T0000Z-110618T2130Z/
DAVIDSON NC-FORSYTH NC-
507 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN FORSYTH AND
NORTHEASTERN DAVIDSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND 
THE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3625 7980 3600 7981 3596 7982 3599 8004
      3620 8004 3626 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 272DEG 22KT 3610 8009

$$

NCC081-182130-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0129.000000T0000Z-110618T2130Z/
GUILFORD NC-
507 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR WESTERN GUILFORD COUNTY...

AT 506 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
 THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COLFAX...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF HIGH 
POINT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. FORSYTH COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORT A FEW 
TREES DOWN ACROSS THE CITY OF WINSTON SALEM. 

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... STOKESDALE...
JAMESTOWN...SUMMERFIELD AND GREENSBORO.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. SEEK SHELTER 
NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

IF YOU OBSERVED DAMAGING WINDS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW 
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

LAT...LON 3625 7980 3600 7981 3596 7982 3599 8004
      3620 8004 3626 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 272DEG 22KT 3610 8009

$$

WSS

064 
WWUS52 KRAH 182123
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
523 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

NCC081-182132-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0129.000000T0000Z-110618T2130Z/
GUILFORD NC-
523 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN GUILFORD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND 
THE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...PLEASE 
CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE 1...8 7 
7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY 
AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3625 7980 3600 7981 3596 7982 3599 8004
      3620 8004 3626 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 272DEG 22KT 3608 7978

$$

WSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

WATCHING A LONG LIVED MCS MOVING INTO THE FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPED NEAR KSTL LAST NIGHT AROUND 02Z
AND HAS MADE STEADY PROGRESS EAST AND SOUTHEAST TODAY. NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE WFO GSP CWA.

ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NC OFFERS MIXED SIGNALS FOR THE CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. MLCAPES IN RAH CWA RANGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
MORE THAN 500 J/KG WHILE MLCAPES TO THE WEST ARE 2 OR 3 TIMES
GREATER. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IMPRESSIVE IN CENTRAL NC BUT DEW
POINTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. LOW AND MID
LEVEL WINDS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. RECENT ANALYSIS AND FCST
DATA OVER THE FOOTHILLS NOTES BULK SHEAR OF 30 KTS OR SO WHILE
SHEAR IS CLOSER TO 10-15 KTS IN CENTRAL NC PER RECENT AMDAR
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS AT KRDU. MULTIPLE HIGH RESOLUTION WRF
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE MCS WILL
SHIFT SE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTHERN CAROLINA WITH
PERHAPS A MINIMUM IN CENTRAL NC.

RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND REPORTS SUGGEST THAT THE LINE IS REFORMING
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME DECREASE IN CONVERGE AND INTENSITY IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE LINE MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE
AIR MASS...HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED IN THE WEST. WILL
FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA LINEARLY THIS EVENING AND KEEP
GREATEST POPS IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS ONGOING TO OUR WEST AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM
DAMAGING WINDS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 68 AND 74
DEGREES.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS A SFC
BOUNDARY DROPS INTO SOUTHERN VA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF DISTURBANCES
MOVE TOWARD THE REGION IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD PART
OF CENTRAL NC IS IN A SLIGHT RISK AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH A GROWING
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS MORE UNSTABLE ON SUNDAY
AS DEW POINTS REACH INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 90S IN MANY LOCATIONS. -BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS VA/NC WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION MORE EARNESTLY BY TUESDAY.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST NC AND
SOUTHWEST VA BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVING QUICKLY OFFSHORE.
THIS MAY ALLOW A BRIEF BACKDOOR BOUNDARY TO SLIP INTO NORTHEAST
NC.    HOWEVER..SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD RESUME BY
MIDDAY...ALLOWING MOST AREAS TO DESTABILIZE AS PW VALUES HOVER
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES.  CONVECTIVE IMPULSE INFRINGING ON THE CWA
FROM THE NW LATER IN THE DAY MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BASED ON RECENT INABILITY OF MODELS TO HANDLE
THESE MESOSCALE PERTURBATIONS.  HIGHS LIKE TO BE HELD DOWN SLIGHTLY
IN THE NORTHEAST DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...BUT LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES RISING ABOVE 1420M SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S.  LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AROUND 70.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FORECASTS CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE
1430M OR AS HIGH AS 1440M.  HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S...MAYBE
100...SEEM POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS TOWARD THIS COMMON
SOLUTION.  DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...PROVIDED WEAK MIXING
OCCURS...WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 99-103 RANGE IN THE EAST.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK VERY SLIM WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD...THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN US WILL BREAK
THE UPPER RIDGE DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  HOWEVER...QUESTIONS
STILL REMAIN AS TO HOW QUICKLY AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO HOW MUCH IF ANY PRECIP
CAN BE EXPECTED.  FORECAST WILL SHOW INCREASING POPS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.  HIGHS GENERALLY 89-94 EACH DAY. LOWS AROUND 70 STILL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT THE GREATEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NW PIEDMONT TAF LOCATION (KINT AND KGSO) BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z AS
A LINE OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIAN MTNS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT SCT TO OCCASIONALLY
BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 5-6KT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND PERIODS
OF BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD FROM SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A PERIOD
OF HOT AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. A MAINLY AFTN OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. -BLAES

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...BLAES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
353 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

NCZ009>011-026>028-042-043-078-088-089-192000-
VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-WAYNE-
CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
353 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS WILL
HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WILL
CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105
DEGREES...HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS...AND
COASTAL PLAIN OF NC...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ007-008-021>025-038>041-073>077-083>086-192000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-DAVIDSON-
RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
353 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AND TRIAD AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS LINE OF STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WILL
CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105
DEGREES...HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS...AND
COASTAL PLAIN OF NC...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
408 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

NCZ021-022-038-039-182100-
DAVIDSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-RANDOLPH-
408 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS RANDOLPH...GUILFORD...
FORSYTH AND DAVIDSON COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 407 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HUNTSVILLE...OR ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EAST
BEND...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THSE STORMS WILL CROSS FORSYTH AND
NORTHERN DAVIDSON COUNTIES INCLUDING THE WINSTON-SALEM AREA BETWEEN
430 AND 5 PM.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

DON'T WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM
YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 8050 3612 8046 3614 8044 3627 8045
      3625 7978 3572 7984 3590 8038 3596 8038
      3599 8043 3601 8042 3606 8047 3604 8049
      3604 8050 3608 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 279DEG 29KT 3613 8056

WSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
435 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

NCZ038-039-073-074-083-084-182130-
ANSON-DAVIDSON-MONTGOMERY-RANDOLPH-RICHMOND-STANLY-
435 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS STANLY...RICHMOND...
RANDOLPH...MONTGOMERY...DAVIDSON AND ANSON COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM
EDT...

AT 433 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOCUST...OR ABOUT OVER
CONCORD...TO HIGH ROCK LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE LEXINGTON AREA BY 445 PM....AND
ALBEMARLE SHORTLY AFTER 5 PM.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

DON'T WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM
YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8031 3551 8019 3558 8021 3568 8034
      3571 8033 3572 8042 3574 8046 3578 8047
      3586 8042 3585 8039 3587 8042 3591 8037
      3578 7982 3506 8000 3515 8029 3519 8029
      3517 8035 3522 8049
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 276DEG 38KT 3539 8062

WSS