Alert archive / Illinois / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Paducah, KY

April 15, 2011Johnson County, Massac County, Pope County, Illinois

NWS Paducah, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 15, 2011, 6:17 PM CDT for Johnson County, Massac County, Pope County, Illinois. It was in force for 28 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Apr 15, 2011, 6:17 PM CDT (23:17 UTC)
Expired: Apr 15, 2011, 6:45 PM CDT
In force: 28 min
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Johnson County, IL, Massac County, IL, Pope County, IL

The radar

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 40 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Apr 15, 6:23 PM CDT	HAIL 0.88	Mermet, IL

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Apr 15, 12:47 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	9 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 243 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1893 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 75 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 38 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

221 
WUUS53 KPAH 152317
SVRPAH
ILC087-127-151-152345-
/O.NEW.KPAH.SV.W.0056.110415T2317Z-110415T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
617 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
  NORTHWESTERN MASSAC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
  NORTHWESTERN POPE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT.

* AT 611 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE 
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. ONE STORM WAS LOCATED 
6 MILES SOUTH OF NEW COLUMBIA. THE OTHER STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
VIENNA. BOTH STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
  NEW COLUMBIA...
  VIENNA...
  DIXON SPRINGS...
  NEW BURNSIDE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER
INFORMATION.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 3741 8896 3761 8887 3760 8864 3760 8853
      3716 8874 3720 8885
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 195DEG 52KT 3729 8875
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

1 follow-up statement

944 
WWUS53 KPAH 152329
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
629 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

ILC087-127-151-152345-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-110415T2345Z/
MASSAC IL-JOHNSON IL-POPE IL-
629 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN POPE...EASTERN JOHNSON AND NORTHWESTERN MASSAC
COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...

AT 625 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER 
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS LINE OF 
STORMS WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR NEW BURNSIDE TO JOPPA...MOVING EAST AT 
25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE NEW BURNSIDE...DIXON SPRINGS AND
EDDYVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE A TORNADO QUICKLY. BE PREPARED
TO IMPLEMENT YOUR TORNADO PLAN OF ACTION.

&&

LAT...LON 3720 8885 3734 8892 3761 8887 3760 8853
      3716 8874
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 269DEG 21KT 3741 8878
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 15, 2:45 PM CDT, 3 hours 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 15, 2:45 PM CDT, 3 hours 32 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
245 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MANY CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  FIRST ARE THE NEAR TERM
PRECIP CHANCES.  ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN IN FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA...WITH ALL BUT FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA IN A TORNADO WATCH.  SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  BETWEEN ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING...AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE PRODUCING SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...KEPT
LIKELY POPS EAST FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CHANCE POPS WEST FOR FOR
SHOWERS THIS EVENING.  AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE FRONT TO OUR EAST
ANY PRECIP SHOULD JUST BE LINGERING SHOWERS.  WENT WITH CHANCE POPS
NORTHEAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH POPS TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE HIGH
MOVES SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SUNSHINE WILL PROVIDE A NICE WARM UP ON SUNDAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION ON SUNDAY...AND IT WILL
LINGER NORTH OF THE PAH FA FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.  THE
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WHERE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP IS THE
QUESTION.  THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE...AND FOR NOW KEPT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
DRY...WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  THE
12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DO HAVE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA.  INCLUDED HIGH CHANCE
POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.  AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...THE MODELS AGAIN DIVERGE...SO AT THIS TIME CHOSE TO KEEP
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL A CLEARER
PICTURE EMERGES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...LEANED MORE TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND TOWARD THE COOLER MAV
TEMPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THE EXTENDED...OVERALL STAYED WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATO-CU AND MVFR CIGS COVERED MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WITH
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DEPARTING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. KEPT CB/S FOR
CONVECTIVE MENTION GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE.
WINDS WILL STAY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KTS CONTINUING. WINDS WILL VEER THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
TO SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT...PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS WILL INCREASE
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 15, 3:33 AM CDT, 14 hours 44 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
333 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-160845-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
333 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING...MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE AND PENNYRILE REGIONS. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION...
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS WITH ROUND TWO
COULD TAKE ON SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
ILLINOIS. HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE ALERT LEVEL WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW
UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME THROUGH THE DAY...AND IF UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAM WINDS CAN LINE UP WITH THE AXIS OF
DESTABILIZATION. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST FROM 40 TO 50
MPH.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TODAY. RAINFALL EARLIER
THIS WEEK HAS GROUND CONDITIONS SATURATED IN SOME AREAS. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING TO THE REGION 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD CONCERNS
ONCE AGAIN.

FLOODING IS AGAIN OCCURRING ON MANY AREA RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO
THE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP IN A
MANNER FAVORABLE FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY
IN THE MODEL DATA...IT IS TOO SOON TO TELL WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE
WHERE EXACTLY THE AXIS WILL SET UP. HOWEVER THE EFFECTS SHOULD
BE FELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF BOTH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.

FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON MANY AREA RIVERS. PLEASE
REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

JP

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 15, 6:07 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
607 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     HAIL             ENERGY                  37.78N 89.03W
04/15/2011  M0.88 INCH       WILLIAMSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKLE SIZE HAIL REPORTED WITH THE STORM.

&&

SMITTY

Local storm report, Apr 15, 6:08 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
608 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     HAIL             MARION                  37.73N 88.94W
04/15/2011  M1.00 INCH       WILLIAMSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF JOHNSON
            CITY.

&&

SMITTY

Local storm report, Apr 15, 6:09 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
609 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND GST     WOODLAWN                38.33N 89.04W
04/15/2011  E50.00 MPH       JEFFERSON          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            40 TO 50 MPH WINDS AND PEA SIZE HAIL

&&

RST

Local storm report, Apr 15, 6:11 PM CDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
611 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             THOMPSONVILLE           37.91N 88.76W
04/15/2011  M1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMITTY

Local storm report, Apr 15, 6:12 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
612 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             THOMPSONVILLE           37.91N 88.76W
04/15/2011  M1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUSTS 50 MPH REPORTED WITH THE STORM.

&&

SMITTY

Local storm report, Apr 15, 6:14 PM CDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
614 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND GST     WEST FRANKFORT          37.90N 88.93W
04/15/2011  E60 MPH          FRANKLIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH WITH DIME SIZE HAIL
            REPORTED WITH THE STORM.

&&

SMITTY

The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 15, 4:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Jackson	30 min
Apr 15, 4:47 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Alexander	19 min
Apr 15, 4:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Alexander, Union	23 min
Apr 15, 5:01 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Jackson	29 min
Apr 15, 5:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Alexander, Pulaski	33 min
Apr 15, 5:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Alexander, Jackson, Union	28 min
Apr 15, 5:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Franklin, Jackson, Jefferson, Perry, Williamson	25 min
Apr 15, 5:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Johnson, Massac, Pope	24 min
Apr 15, 5:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Massac, Pope	13 min
Apr 15, 5:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Johnson, Pulaski, Union	30 min
Apr 15, 5:35 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	PAH	Alexander, Pulaski	3 hr
Apr 15, 5:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Franklin, Jackson, Jefferson, Perry, Saline, Williamson	50 min
Apr 15, 6:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Hamilton, Wayne, White	43 min
Apr 15, 6:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Massac, Pulaski	21 min
Apr 15, 6:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Gallatin, Saline, Williamson	34 min
Apr 15, 6:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Hardin, Johnson, Massac, Pope	30 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Illinois, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.