Alert archive / Illinois / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Paducah, KY

April 15, 2011Hamilton County, Wayne County, White County, Illinois

NWS Paducah, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 15, 2011, 6:02 PM CDT for Hamilton County, Wayne County, White County, Illinois. It was in force for 43 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Apr 15, 2011, 6:02 PM CDT (23:02 UTC)
Expired: Apr 15, 2011, 6:45 PM CDT
In force: 43 min
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.75 in
Wind: 70.0 mph

Counties Hamilton County, IL, Wayne County, IL, White County, IL

The radar

The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 38 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Apr 15, 6:42 PM CDT	HAIL 0.75	Mcleansboro, IL	DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED WITH WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED 50 MPH.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Apr 15, 12:47 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	9 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 232 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1776 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 109 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 129 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

636 
WUUS53 KPAH 152302
SVRPAH
ILC065-191-193-152345-
/O.NEW.KPAH.SV.W.0055.110415T2302Z-110415T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
602 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
  WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
  WHITE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT.

* AT 557 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
  HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
  LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 29 MILES WEST OF MCLEANSBORO TO
  26 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MCLEANSBORO..AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

  THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH WITH
  THIS LINE OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MARION AND HERRIN AREAS.
  HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAS BEEN COMMON FROM HERRIN TO MARION.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
  NORRIS CITY...
  MCLEANSBORO...
  ENFIELD...
  CARMI...
  WAYNE CITY...
  FAIRFIELD...
  CROSSVILLE...
  GRAYVILLE...
  CISNE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER
INFORMATION.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 3860 8815 3826 8815 3826 8800 3820 8798
      3817 8793 3813 8795 3811 8802 3808 8796
      3804 8804 3803 8802 3797 8802 3793 8807
      3794 8808 3790 8803 3792 8814 3791 8871
      3861 8870
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 230DEG 51KT 3800 8897 3779 8865
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.75IN

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 15, 2:45 PM CDT, 3 hours 17 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 15, 2:45 PM CDT, 3 hours 17 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
245 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MANY CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  FIRST ARE THE NEAR TERM
PRECIP CHANCES.  ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN IN FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA...WITH ALL BUT FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA IN A TORNADO WATCH.  SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  BETWEEN ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING...AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE PRODUCING SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...KEPT
LIKELY POPS EAST FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CHANCE POPS WEST FOR FOR
SHOWERS THIS EVENING.  AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE FRONT TO OUR EAST
ANY PRECIP SHOULD JUST BE LINGERING SHOWERS.  WENT WITH CHANCE POPS
NORTHEAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH POPS TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE HIGH
MOVES SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SUNSHINE WILL PROVIDE A NICE WARM UP ON SUNDAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION ON SUNDAY...AND IT WILL
LINGER NORTH OF THE PAH FA FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.  THE
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WHERE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP IS THE
QUESTION.  THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE...AND FOR NOW KEPT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
DRY...WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  THE
12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DO HAVE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA.  INCLUDED HIGH CHANCE
POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.  AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...THE MODELS AGAIN DIVERGE...SO AT THIS TIME CHOSE TO KEEP
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL A CLEARER
PICTURE EMERGES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...LEANED MORE TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND TOWARD THE COOLER MAV
TEMPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THE EXTENDED...OVERALL STAYED WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATO-CU AND MVFR CIGS COVERED MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WITH
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DEPARTING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. KEPT CB/S FOR
CONVECTIVE MENTION GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE.
WINDS WILL STAY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KTS CONTINUING. WINDS WILL VEER THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
TO SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT...PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS WILL INCREASE
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 15, 3:33 AM CDT, 14 hours 29 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
333 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-160845-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
333 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING...MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE AND PENNYRILE REGIONS. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION...
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS WITH ROUND TWO
COULD TAKE ON SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
ILLINOIS. HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE ALERT LEVEL WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW
UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME THROUGH THE DAY...AND IF UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAM WINDS CAN LINE UP WITH THE AXIS OF
DESTABILIZATION. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST FROM 40 TO 50
MPH.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TODAY. RAINFALL EARLIER
THIS WEEK HAS GROUND CONDITIONS SATURATED IN SOME AREAS. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING TO THE REGION 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD CONCERNS
ONCE AGAIN.

FLOODING IS AGAIN OCCURRING ON MANY AREA RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO
THE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP IN A
MANNER FAVORABLE FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY
IN THE MODEL DATA...IT IS TOO SOON TO TELL WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE
WHERE EXACTLY THE AXIS WILL SET UP. HOWEVER THE EFFECTS SHOULD
BE FELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF BOTH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.

FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON MANY AREA RIVERS. PLEASE
REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

JP

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 15, 5:55 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
555 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     HAIL             HURST                   37.84N 89.14W
04/15/2011  M0.88 INCH       WILLIAMSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUST 45 MPH. TREES BENDING.

&&

SMITTY

Local storm report, Apr 15, 5:56 PM CDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
556 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     HAIL             CUNNINGHAM              36.92N 88.91W
04/15/2011  M1.00 INCH       CARLISLE           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUST 50 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH
            THIS STORM.

&&

SMITTY

Local storm report, Apr 15, 5:57 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
557 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     HAIL             CRAB ORCHARD            37.73N 88.80W
04/15/2011  M0.88 INCH       WILLIAMSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JAYSONW

Local storm report, Apr 15, 5:58 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
558 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     HAIL             3 W MARION              37.73N 89.00W
04/15/2011  M1.00 INCH       WILLIAMSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL WITH WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH.

&&

SMITTY

Local storm report, Apr 15, 6:01 PM CDT, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
601 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     HAIL             ZEIGLER                 37.90N 89.05W
04/15/2011  M2.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOLF BALL TO HEN EGG SIZE HAIL REPORTED. REPORT FROM 911
            CENTER.

&&

SMITTY

Local storm report, Apr 15, 6:02 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
602 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     HAIL             HERRIN                  37.80N 89.03W
04/15/2011  M0.75 INCH       WILLIAMSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON NORTH SIDE OF TOWN WITH WIND
            GUSTS ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH. HAIL COVERING GROUND.

&&

SMITTY

The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 15, 4:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Jackson	30 min
Apr 15, 4:47 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Alexander	19 min
Apr 15, 4:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Alexander, Union	23 min
Apr 15, 5:01 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Jackson	29 min
Apr 15, 5:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Alexander, Pulaski	33 min
Apr 15, 5:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Alexander, Jackson, Union	28 min
Apr 15, 5:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Franklin, Jackson, Jefferson, Perry, Williamson	25 min
Apr 15, 5:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Johnson, Massac, Pope	24 min
Apr 15, 5:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Massac, Pope	13 min
Apr 15, 5:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Johnson, Pulaski, Union	30 min
Apr 15, 5:35 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	PAH	Alexander, Pulaski	3 hr
Apr 15, 5:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Franklin, Jackson, Jefferson, Perry, Saline, Williamson	50 min
Apr 15, 6:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Johnson, Massac, Pope	28 min
Apr 15, 6:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Massac, Pulaski	21 min
Apr 15, 6:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Gallatin, Saline, Williamson	34 min
Apr 15, 6:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Hardin, Johnson, Massac, Pope	30 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Illinois, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.