Severe Thunderstorm Warning 300, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
304 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW IMPRESSIVE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AHEAD OF AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY.
PLENTY OF CONVECTION WAS BLOSSOMING WITHIN THE MOISTURE
PLUME...AIDED BY SEASONABLY STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

IN THE SHORT TERM...EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING UNTIL THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES RAKED OVER AND
NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. COULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE
OVERNIGHT SINCE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INFLOW /AROUND 30
KNOTS AT 850 MB/ TO RECHARGE THE ATMOSPHERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
OCCUR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5 TO 2 INCHES.

THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED AS IT CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. SOME CONVECTION MAY REFIRE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. DUE TO MEAGER
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST OFF THE
SURFACE...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER THAN TODAY. THIS IS
REFLECTED VERY WELL IN MOS GUIDANCE POPS. HOWEVER...STRONGER MID
LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND
ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION ONCE STORMS BEGIN TO FIRE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONT...MODEST COOLING AND DRYING WILL
OCCUR...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TEENS. THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE...HOWEVER. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT
NORTHWARD RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CONVECTION WILL SPREAD
BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI STATIONARY
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS FAVORED. IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN A
MODERATELY STRONG WEST NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. TWEAKED POPS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT WARMING AND
DRYING TREND...BUT THIS IS FAR ENOUGH OUT IN THE FUTURE THAT
CONFIDENCE IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE IS LOW.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS CONSISTENTLY TOO
WARM...ESPECIALLY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAFS WILL INCLUDE THUNDER AT THE SITES AS DICTATED BY RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. EXPECTING MAINLY LOW END VFR SCT-BKN...AT TIMES
LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 5-15KT
RANGE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...MY
AVIATION...CN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
339 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-222045-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
339 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM OWENSBORO TO MAYFIELD KENTUCKY. THE MAIN HAZARDS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
IS POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND A SMALL PART OF
WESTERN KENTUCKY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR
IN THE STORMS. RAINFALL RATES UP TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY
IN ISOLATED SPOTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON A FEW RIVERS. REFER TO RIVER FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL AGAIN BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE EVENING...A BREAK IN THE STORMS IS EXPECTED FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MOSTLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY SOME STORMS.

THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE NEXT WEEK. DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY STORMS
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS IS REQUESTED WITHIN THE TORNADO WATCH AREA.
ELSEWHERE...ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUESTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

MY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
335 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0331 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E SMITHLAND           37.14N 88.37W
06/21/2011                   LIVINGSTON         KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON RIVER ROAD NEAR HIGHWAY 60. ROAD IS
            BLOCKED.

&&

PS

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