River Flood Warning 70, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1252 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.DISCUSSION...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE CHANCES STEADILY
UNTIL ITS PASSAGE. IT WILL CONTINUE A SLOW/STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS TODAY-TONIGHT-WED. POPS WILL RISE TO LIKELY CAT AND STAY
AROUND THERE TIL WE GET INTO THE UPPER CYLCONE DRIVEN CONVECTION
WED LATE PM/EVENING. DUE TO WARMTH/INSTABILITY...WITH FRONT AND
ENERGY AVAILABLE WITH LOW...WILL BE SEVERAL BOUTS OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG-SVR WX WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSAGE. SPC OUTLOOKS SLGT RISK SVR
THRU WED.

AFTER WED...WE'RE IN A BIT OF A DIRTY PATTERN BETWEEN THE LOW TO
THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE FIZZLE OUT OF THE
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH LINGERING HIGH MOISTURE/WARMTH IN THE ATMOS
COULD LEND TO SOME CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST SMALLISH POPS THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS APPEARS
ADEQUATELY REFLECTED IN THE PACKAGE AND LITTLE MORE THAN MINOR
MASSAGING WAS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE TODAY ESP IN THE
PM. THE MENTION OF VCNTY SHOWERS AND CB WERE ADDED FOR KCGI/KPAH
IN THE LATE MORNING. THE MENTION OF SHRA AND CB CLOUDS WILL BE
ADDED FOR KEVV/KOWB FOR AFTERNOON DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY CROSS THE TAF REGION EVENING THROUGH
WED...WHICH WILL BRING THE HIGHEST CHCS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON THROUGH WED COULD BE QUITE
STRONG.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
404 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-221000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
404 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. REFER TO RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE
LATEST FLOOD INFORMATION. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY INCLUDE
SOME GUSTINESS IN THE 20S MPH TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS
INCLUDES A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MAINTAIN ALERT STATUS IN CASE THEIR ACTIVATION IS
REQUESTED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
839 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 AM     TSTM WND GST     FORT CAMPBELL NORTH     36.65N 87.46W
06/21/2011  M61.00 MPH       CHRISTIAN          KY   ASOS

&&

CTN