Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1238 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE POPS AND SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH THURSDAY.

SURFACE WINDS ARE ALREADY RECOVERING BEHIND THIS MORNINGS MCS...AND
CLOUDS ARE THINNING RAPIDLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM MINNESOTA SOUTH SOUTHWEST
THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI BY THE END OF THE DAY
TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING INTO WISCONSIN MOVES
EAST AND WEAKENS.

NOT SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WE WILL
LIKELY WARM UP...AND GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD
BETTER IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SO THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF JUICE AT THE SURFACE...BUT WITHOUT A BOUNDARY IN
THE AREA...NOT SURE HOW CONVECTION WILL GET STARTED. ESPECIALLY WITH
THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AS IT IS LIKELY THAT AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS AT GOOD CHANCE
LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH SCATTERED WORDING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH NEIGHBORS...BUT IS PROBABLY OVERDONE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 00Z NAM AND GFS BRING A NICE SWATH OF QPF EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA 06Z-18Z TUESDAY...AS A MINOR UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HPC QPF REFLECTS THIS
WELL...SO RAN WITH LIKELY POPS OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
WEST KENTUCKY.

THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO
COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN LATE TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

500MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A NEARLY
OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RELATIVELY DRY
PERIOD.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS SLOWLY OUR WAY. CERTAINLY WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT SURE WHEN AND WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE...AS THE MODELS ARE NOT VERY CONSISTENT IN THERE
QPF PLACEMENT. WILL BROAD BRUSH 50 POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN
WEDNESDAY...AND WITH STRENGTHENING TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS AND A
CONTINUED SOUPY WARM SECTOR AIRMASS...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIGHT AHEAD
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS WELL.

MADE A FEW TWEAKS BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT GENERAL PLAN IS THE
SAME. THE ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE WAS TO TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND...AS THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW INDICATING RIDGING ALOFT AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERSISTENT SWRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TRHOUGH THE PERIOD.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A WARM MOIST PATTERN...WITH INSTABILITY
IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES KICKING
OFF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME. WHILE SHWRS AND TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/EVE...IT IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHERE AND WHEN THEY WILL OCCUR. HAVE TEMPO GROUP THIS
AFTN TO ENCOMPASS APPROACHING MCS CONVECTION...THEN PROB30 GROUPS
AS NEXT ROUND AFFECTS TAF SITES TUESDAY MORNING AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV IS SUPPOSED TO PASS THROUGH. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS AFTER
SUNSET TODAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

JAP/RST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
422 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-241000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
422 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE QUAD STATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY CONCERN AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AT ANY TIME. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY
ALL THUNDERSTORMS.

PLEASE REFER TO RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION REGARDING AREA RIVER LEVELS AND FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MAXIMIZED. AT THIS
TIME...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

PLEASE REFER TO RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION REGARDING AREA RIVER LEVELS AND FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED FOR
ACTIVATION AT ANY TIME FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

DRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1241 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1137 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAPE GIRARDEAU          37.31N 89.55W
05/22/2011                   CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   PUBLIC

            ...LATE REPORT...OVERNIGHT WINDS BLEW DOWN TREES AND
            POWER LINES. ONE TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE AND ANOTHER ON A
            VEHICLE. MAINLY SOUTH END OF CITY.

&&

MY