Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Paducah, KY

219 
WWUS53 KPAH 232031
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
331 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

MOC223-232041-
/O.CAN.KPAH.SV.W.0202.000000T0000Z-110523T2045Z/
WAYNE MO-
331 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3697 9013 3701 9016 3705 9015 3705 9011
      3708 9011 3709 9023 3732 9022 3732 9016
      3758 9015 3759 8962 3695 8986
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 270DEG 35KT 3755 8992 3705 9008

$$

MOC017-031-207-232045-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0202.000000T0000Z-110523T2045Z/
STODDARD MO-BOLLINGER MO-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-
331 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN CAPE GIRARDEAU...BOLLINGER AND NORTH CENTRAL STODDARD
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

AT 326 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ALLIANCE TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ZALMA...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE SEDGEWICKVILLE...MARBLE HILL...
LEOPOLD...DAISY...ADVANCE...MILLERSVILLE...BURFORDVILLE...WHITEWATER
AND OAK RIDGE.

LAT...LON 3697 9013 3701 9016 3705 9015 3705 9011
      3708 9011 3709 9023 3732 9022 3732 9016
      3758 9015 3759 8962 3695 8986
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 270DEG 35KT 3755 8992 3705 9008
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 0.88IN

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
238 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.  SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTERMITTENTLY DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI TO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND MOVE EAST
INTO THE PAH FORECAST AREA.  AFTER A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY...NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF DEVELOPING
ANOTHER COMPLEX IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS EARLY THIS
EVENING...AFFECTING THE PAH FA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE FA TONIGHT.  FOR
TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING AND WENT WITH CHANCE POPS.

BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST..AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE.  HIGH CHANCE POPS BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  NAM AND
ECMWF SHOW THE LOW OVER THE ST. LOUIS AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE
THE GFS HAS THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE PAH FA AT THE SAME TIME.
IN EITHER CASE...KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE PAH FA.  POPS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE LOW FINALLY
WELL EAST OF OUR REGION BY 00Z SATURDAY.  GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY LOW
BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT..SO
WENT WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...LATEST ECMWF IS NOW GOING DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUN...SO IT IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS WHICH BUILDS A
RIDGE OVER THE REGION.  WENT WITH A DRY AND WARMER FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE AN IDEAL HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN TOTALLY CONSISTENT...SO SOME
VARIATIONS TO THAT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE A SURPRISE.

FOR NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES...MAV AND MET GUIDANCE ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT...AND OVERALL STAYED WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF GUIDANCE.
IN THE EXTENDED...WENT COOLER THAN MEX GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH EXPECTED ONGOING PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER.  WENT CLOSER TO
MEX VALUES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERSISTENT SSWRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THE REGION
WILL REMAIN IN A WARM MOIST PATTERN...WITH INSTABILITY IN THE HEAT
OF THE DAY AND MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES KICKING OFF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME. WHILE SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/EVE...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE AND
WHEN THEY WILL OCCUR...SO THE TAFS HAVE ONLY A CB MENTION FOR THE
DAYTIME AND EVE. AN ATTEMPT AT PREDICTING TSTMS WAS MADE IN THE
LATTER SIX HRS OF THE TAFS...AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV IS
SUPPOSED TO PASS THROUGH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC.....RST
AVIATION...JAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
422 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-241000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
422 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE QUAD STATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY CONCERN AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AT ANY TIME. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY
ALL THUNDERSTORMS.

PLEASE REFER TO RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION REGARDING AREA RIVER LEVELS AND FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MAXIMIZED. AT THIS
TIME...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

PLEASE REFER TO RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION REGARDING AREA RIVER LEVELS AND FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED FOR
ACTIVATION AT ANY TIME FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

DRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1241 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1137 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAPE GIRARDEAU          37.31N 89.55W
05/22/2011                   CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   PUBLIC

            ...LATE REPORT...OVERNIGHT WINDS BLEW DOWN TREES AND
            POWER LINES. ONE TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE AND ANOTHER ON A
            VEHICLE. MAINLY SOUTH END OF CITY.

&&

MY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
223 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HAIL             BENTON                  38.01N 88.92W
05/23/2011  E0.50 INCH       FRANKLIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLL