Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
457 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...
LOTS GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRY TO BE BRIEF.

THE ACTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS LAID DOWN RIGHT ON THE
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER...AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER IT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY. IN PARTICULAR...THE LARGE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY TRY TO RIDE ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND SPREAD MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IS EXPECTED TO GET WORSE/MORE WIDESPREAD BY MONDAY
MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY BACK TO OUR
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
STATES. NOT SURE HOW FAR IT WILL MAKE IT GIVEN THE CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. ANYWAY IT SEEMS LIKE WE MAY SEE A
RESPITE FROM THE HEAVY RAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BUT AS THE FIRST
BIG IMPULSE ROTATES NEGATIVELY-TILTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS
LIKELY...BUT MAY BE MODULATED BY THE FRONTAL LOCATION. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...OF COURSE WITH
THE EVER PRESENT HEAVY RAINFALL.

DECIDED TO LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 12Z
TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER BREAK IS LIKELY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
12Z GFS DEVIATED FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY EAST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FINAL MAJOR UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. THIS KEEPS THE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY HEAVY
RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER FOCUS TO OUR EAST. THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINED
STEADY WITH ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THEY CAN AGREE BEFORE CONTINUING
THE WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...
KCGI CURRENTLY IS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND ITS NORTHEAST WINDS MAY
SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING AT KEVV AND KOWB. COMPUTER GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
ANOTHER ROUND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IN THE WEST AND SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THUNDER MAY SEE SOME IFR CEILINGS ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-
     CARLISLE-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-
     HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-UNION KY-
     WEBSTER.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-
     CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-
     RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-
     FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE
     IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-
     SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

DRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
435 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-251000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
435 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOOON OVER
PORTIONS OF WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS MORE THUNDERSTORMS STREAM
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AND ANY WARNING PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.

A STRAY SEVERE STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE BORDERS. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MOST AREA RIVERS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOODING...AND
CONDITIONS WILL ONLY WORSEN WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO OUR RIVER FLOOD PRODUCTS
AT

HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH .

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. MAJOR FLASH
FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A
SIGNIFICANT SWATH OF HEAVY RAINS IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A BREAK
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR THAT REASON HAVE NOT EXTENDED
THE WATCH ANY FURTHER. HOWEVER...THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN ADDITIONAL 6
TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. MORE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN INTO
WEDNESDAY.

MOST AREA RIVERS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOODING...AND IT
WILL ONLY WORSEN WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO OUR RIVER FLOOD PRODUCTS AT

HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH .

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED EACH DAY FROM TODAY
THROUGH  WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. SPOTTERS SHOULD ALSO REPORT ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS THEY ENCOUNTER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1014 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 PM     HAIL             NEELYVILLE              36.56N 90.51W
04/24/2011  M1.00 INCH       BUTLER             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE JUNCTION OF HIGHWAY 67
            AND 142. REPORTED RELAYED BY EMERGENCY MANAGER FROM
            TRAINED SPOTTER.

&&

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1032 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

INZ088-250545-
SPENCER-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ROCKPORT
1032 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...DENSE FOG HAS FORMED OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
PERSONS TRAVELING ACROSS THAT PART OF THE QUAD STATE SHOULD
PREPARE FOR RAPID REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER MILE. REMEMBER TO USE LOW BEAMS AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO
REACH YOUR DESTINATION.