Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Paducah, KY

251 
WGUS73 KPAH 251957
FFSPAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
257 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

MOC023-260030-
/O.CON.KPAH.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-110426T0030Z/
/00000.U.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BUTLER MO-
257 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE IMMINENT FAILURE OF A LEVEE REMAINS 
IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* AT 255 PM CDT...COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS INDICATED 
THE LEVEE ALONG THE BLACK RIVER FROM POPLAR BLUFF TO QULIN HAS BEEN 
COMPROMISED IN SIX LOCATIONS. WATER IS TOPPING THE LEVEE AT SEVERAL 
POINTS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN EVENTUAL FAILURE OF THE LEVEE SYSTEM 
BETWEEN POPLAR BLUFF AND QULIN. 

THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN IS SOUTH AND EAST OF POPLAR BLUFF TO HH 
HIGHWAY...AND IS BOUNDED BY THE BLACK RIVER TO THE EAST AND STATE 
HIGHWAY 142 TO THE WEST. COUNTY OFFICIALS HAVE ALREADY EVACUATED 
APPROXIMATELY 500 STRUCTURES...WHICH IMPACTS ABOUT 1000 PEOPLE...IN 
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CITY OF POPLAR BLUFF.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE POPLAR BLUFF...AND RURAL AREAS BETWEEN 
POPLAR BLUFF AND THE BLACK RIVER NORTH OF QULIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A LEVEE FAILURE MEANS FLASH FLOODING FROM 
THE A LEVEE FAILURE IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. HEED INSTRUCTIONS 
FROM LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS TO 
EVACUATE IF REQUESTED. 

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9058 3668 9060 3669 9063 3681 9063
      3682 9067 3692 9068 3693 9067 3692 9026
      3687 9026 3685 9022 3678 9021 3668 9015
      3663 9015 3660 9019 3655 9019 3650 9023

$$

RJP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
417 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

.DISCUSSION...
UNFORTUNATELY...MORE OF THE SAME...POSSIBLY EVEN WORSE AS FAR AS
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS CONCERNED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SFC LOW...NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LVL TROF WILL EJECT NE
THROUGH THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...AND DRAG COLD
FRONT EAST WITH IT. BEST HEAVY RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY COME
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING TO NR THE MS RIVER BY MIDNIGHT.

UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AGAIN IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME AS ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF MID LVL TROFS SWINGS INTO THE REGION. RICH/DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN NORTH INTO
THESE SYSTEMS...WITH PW VALUES UP OVER 1.5 INCHES MUCH OF THE TIME.
ALL IN ALL...EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME DRY BREAKS IN
PRECIP...WE HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UNTIL WE FINALLY DRY OUT
THU/FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE AND WNW MID LVL FLOW DRIVE THE FRONT WELL
TO OUR EAST. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES
IN THE TODAY THROUGH WED TIME FRAME.

NEEDLESS TO SAY....EXTENSIVE FLASH FLOODING/MAJOR TO HISTORICAL
RIVER FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES COULD MAKE FOR A VERY DANGEROUS
SCENARIO THIS WEEK. RIGHT NOW...PEAK TIME FRAMES LOOK TO BE LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. COULD BE A BREAK TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON IN
BETWEEN THE MORNING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS THAT SHOULD
ARRIVE IN THE TONIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL LIKELY UPGRADE TO TEMPO OR
PROB30 FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE
TONIGHT TIME FRAME IN THE UPCOMING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-
     CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-
     GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-
     MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-
     CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-
     RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALEXANDER-
     EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-
     WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR GIBSON-PIKE-
     POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

MEFFERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
810 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-261000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
810 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR TO CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
QUAD STATE REGION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY OR
TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME.

IN ADDITION...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE
ENTIRE QUAD STATE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST AREA RIVERS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOODING...AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL ONLY WORSEN WITH THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
REFER TO OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PAH TO SEE ALL THE FLOOD
PRODUCTS AND DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR TO CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT APPEARS THERE MAY
BE A BREAK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN ADDITIONAL
4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...BRINGING
5 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE LAST FRIDAY INTO THE 10 TO 15 INCH
RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION.

MOST AREA RIVERS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOODING...AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL ONLY WORSEN WITH THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME
RIVER CRESTS MAY CHALLENGE HISTORICAL VALUES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO OUR RIVER FLOOD PRODUCTS AT OUR WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/PAH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. CONTINUED REPORTS OF FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE ENCOURAGED AS WELL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
812 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MADISONVILLE            37.34N 87.51W
04/25/2011                   HOPKINS            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HOPKINS COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED 9 ROADS CLOSED
            DUE TO FLOODING FROM THIS MORNINGS RAINS.

&&

KELLYH