River Flood Warning 57, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
303 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
BIGGEST CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE POPS AND
PLACEMENT/AMOUNT OF QPF WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

UNFORTUNATELY THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BECOME AN ISSUE
FOR OUR CWA. TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR REGION...IT
WILL PUT US IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAM QUICKLY ACROSS/INTO
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND UNFORTUNATELY STALL OUT OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z MONDAY THUS PROVIDING A LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM
FOR CONVECTION.

PRECIP/QPF CHANCES WILL BE BEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RIPPLES
OF ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINE WITH THE NOCTURNAL
JET AND THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS WILL INDUCE OVERRUNNING SCENARIOS
IN BOTH PERIODS AND PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG A NE-SW AXIS ACROSS OUR
CWA. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY PRECIP IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC
PARAMETERS WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND/OR QPF
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

QPF TOTALS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 2 INCHES
OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF OUR CWA TO AROUND 5 INCHES OVER THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A MID LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAH FORECAST AREA ON TUE...
SHUTTING OFF THE LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THROUGH THU...HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE JOINED BY RIDGING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS TO BRING AN INTERVAL OF MUCH NEEDED DRY WEATHER. THU
NIGHT/FRI...A FAST-MOVING SHRTWV TROF AND MOISTURE-STARVED COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFER UP A BRIEF
POSSIBILITY OF PCPN AND NOT NECESSARILY SEVERE WEATHER. DAY 7 LOOKS
DRY ATTM. EXPECT TEMPS TO RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE 7 DAY
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AFTN ACROSS THE PAH
FORECAST AREA AS A SFC WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH TOWARD THE NE.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LET UP IN THE EVE AS A SFC
PRESSURE TROF AND COLD FRONT ARRIVE. THOUGH SHOWERS WILL RETURN BY
EARLY EVE...DETERIORATING CIG/VSBY CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATER IN THE EVE AND OVNGT...WEST TO EAST. AFTER THAT...THERE MAY BE
BRIEF REPRIEVES IN THE PCPN...BUT THEY SHOULD NOT LAST LONG.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BALLARD-
     CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-
     FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-
     MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-
     WEBSTER.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-
     CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-
     LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-
     TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER.

MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOLLINGER-
     BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY
     MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-
     MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE
     MO.

IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALEXANDER-
     EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-
     WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-
     HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-
     PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GIBSON-PIKE-
     POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

DB/JAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
628 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-012330-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
628 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS LARGE HAIL...BUT LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
BEGINS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. REFER TO
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE INFORMATION.

SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
QUAD STATE AREA. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS
FOR THE MOST CURRENT INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR DETAILS.

WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING WILL PERSIST. SOME OF THE FLOODING WILL
BE MAJOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE OHIO...MISSISSIPPI AND
WABASH RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
840 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HAIL             SHARPE                  36.97N 88.46W
04/30/2011  E1.00 INCH       MARSHALL           KY   PUBLIC

&&

CW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1143 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     HAIL             DEXTER                  36.79N 89.96W
04/30/2011  E1.00 INCH       STODDARD           MO   PUBLIC

&&

CW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1149 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 PM     TORNADO          S BARLOW                37.05N 89.05W
04/23/2011                   BALLARD            KY   NWS STORM SURVEY

            EF1 TORNADO...PEAK WIND 99 MPH. AVERAGE PATH WIDTH 65
            YARDS...PATH LENGTH WAS 1.6 MILES. LARGE TREE ON ONE HOME
            AND TWO MOBILE HOMES. MINOR ROOF DAMAGE ON TWO HOMES AND
            CARPORT. SEVERAL LARGE TREES UPROOTED AND SNAPPED EAST OF
            HIGHWAY 60. PART OF ONE METAL WALL DAMAGED AT MAINTENANCE
            BUILDING. ROOF DAMAGE TO ONE BARN.

&&

K. SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1223 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TORNADO          ESE KLONDIKE            37.06N 89.23W
04/23/2011                   ALEXANDER          IL   NWS STORM SURVEY

            EF2 TORNADO...PEAK WIND 120 MPH. PATH WIDTH 120 YDS AND
            PATH LENGTH 2.9 MILES. ONE MOBILE HOME DESTROYED...WITH
            MINOR/MODERATE ROOF DAMAGE TO TWO HOMES IN THE KLONDIKE
            AREA. 20 FOOT TALL ARPT. HANGAR DESTROYED ALONG WITH 2
            LIGHT AIRCRAFT. ARPT. MGR. OBSERVED 118 MPH WIND ON
            ANEMOMETER. LARGE TREES DAMAGED ONE HOME/TWO TRAILERS IN
            URBANDALE. SEVERAL TREES UPROOTED/SNAPPED ALONG PATH.

&&

K. SMITH

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