Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Paducah, KY

395 
WGUS73 KPAH 010635
FFSPAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
135 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

MOC017-031-157-201-207-010800-
/O.CON.KPAH.FF.W.0054.000000T0000Z-110501T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
STODDARD MO-SCOTT MO-BOLLINGER MO-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-PERRY MO-
135 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR
PERRY...CAPE GIRARDEAU...BOLLINGER...SCOTT AND STODDARD COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

AT 133 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE 
HEAVIEST RAIN HAD MOVED EAST OF THE WARNED AREA. HOWEVER...RUNOFF 
FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS MAY CONTINUE TO RESULT 
IN RISING WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN SMALLER CREEKS...STREAMS...AND 
DRAINAGE SYSTEMS PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING. LOCALIZED WATER PROBLEMS 
REMAIN A CONCERN GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS IN PLACE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO 
CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER 
TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO 
ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3663 9015 3692 9026 3705 9011 3709 9012
      3709 9022 3731 9022 3732 9016 3760 9015
      3783 8974 3774 8966 3768 8951 3754 8952
      3739 8942 3728 8952 3725 8946 3705 8938
      3701 8931 3687 8953 3686 8971 3663 8972

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
303 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
BIGGEST CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE POPS AND
PLACEMENT/AMOUNT OF QPF WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

UNFORTUNATELY THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BECOME AN ISSUE
FOR OUR CWA. TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR REGION...IT
WILL PUT US IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAM QUICKLY ACROSS/INTO
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND UNFORTUNATELY STALL OUT OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z MONDAY THUS PROVIDING A LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM
FOR CONVECTION.

PRECIP/QPF CHANCES WILL BE BEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RIPPLES
OF ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINE WITH THE NOCTURNAL
JET AND THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS WILL INDUCE OVERRUNNING SCENARIOS
IN BOTH PERIODS AND PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG A NE-SW AXIS ACROSS OUR
CWA. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY PRECIP IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC
PARAMETERS WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND/OR QPF
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

QPF TOTALS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 2 INCHES
OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF OUR CWA TO AROUND 5 INCHES OVER THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A MID LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAH FORECAST AREA ON TUE...
SHUTTING OFF THE LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THROUGH THU...HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE JOINED BY RIDGING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS TO BRING AN INTERVAL OF MUCH NEEDED DRY WEATHER. THU
NIGHT/FRI...A FAST-MOVING SHRTWV TROF AND MOISTURE-STARVED COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFER UP A BRIEF
POSSIBILITY OF PCPN AND NOT NECESSARILY SEVERE WEATHER. DAY 7 LOOKS
DRY ATTM. EXPECT TEMPS TO RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE 7 DAY
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AFTN ACROSS THE PAH
FORECAST AREA AS A SFC WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH TOWARD THE NE.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LET UP IN THE EVE AS A SFC
PRESSURE TROF AND COLD FRONT ARRIVE. THOUGH SHOWERS WILL RETURN BY
EARLY EVE...DETERIORATING CIG/VSBY CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATER IN THE EVE AND OVNGT...WEST TO EAST. AFTER THAT...THERE MAY BE
BRIEF REPRIEVES IN THE PCPN...BUT THEY SHOULD NOT LAST LONG.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BALLARD-
     CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-
     FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-
     MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-
     WEBSTER.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-
     CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-
     LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-
     TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER.

MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOLLINGER-
     BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY
     MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-
     MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE
     MO.

IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALEXANDER-
     EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-
     WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-
     HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-
     PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GIBSON-PIKE-
     POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

DB/JAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
628 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-012330-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
628 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS LARGE HAIL...BUT LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
BEGINS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. REFER TO
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE INFORMATION.

SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
QUAD STATE AREA. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS
FOR THE MOST CURRENT INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR DETAILS.

WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING WILL PERSIST. SOME OF THE FLOODING WILL
BE MAJOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE OHIO...MISSISSIPPI AND
WABASH RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
840 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HAIL             SHARPE                  36.97N 88.46W
04/30/2011  E1.00 INCH       MARSHALL           KY   PUBLIC

&&

CW