Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Norman, OK

242 
WWUS54 KOUN 082318
SVSOUN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
618 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

OKC071-103-082345-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110408T2345Z/
NOBLE OK-KAY OK-
618 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR KAY AND NORTHWESTERN NOBLE COUNTIES...

AT 617 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEWKIRK TO BLACKWELL... 
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THESE STORMS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 
VERY LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY NEAR BLACKWELL...BRAMAN...AND PECKHAM.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BILLINGS...BLACKWELL...CERES...
  CHILOCCO...HARDY...KAW CITY...KAW LAKE...KILDARE...MARLAND...
  NEWKIRK...PECKHAM...PONCA CITY AND TONKAWA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 198 AND 228.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH NO ADVANCE WARNING.
MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STORM SHELTER... BASEMENT OR STURDY BUILDING IF
A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.

&&

LAT...LON 3679 9674 3677 9681 3675 9682 3675 9689
      3669 9694 3670 9704 3665 9706 3660 9704
      3637 9745 3675 9746 3699 9728 3699 9674
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 225DEG 25KT 3691 9703 3684 9729

$$

BURKE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION POPPED UP NEAR ALVA EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE IS HAPPENING YET. HRRR MODEL DOES
SHOW ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITHIN OUR CWA...ALTHOUGH ITS FORECASTS HAVE BECOME PROGRESSIVELY
LESS IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS
FOR THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH FOR ANY LOCATION THAT DOES GET
RAIN...IT MAY WELL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

WE HAVE ADDED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SATURDAY IS THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF
THE DRYLINE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL HANG UP AT THE 100TH
MERIDIAN...BUT MOST MODELS BRING IT A COUPLE OF ROWS OF COUNTIES
FARTHER EAST THAN THAT...WHICH IS WHERE OUR WATCH IS LOCATED.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE. THE TYPICAL MODEL TENDENCY TO PUT THE
DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST PROBABLY DOES NOT APPLY FOR SUNDAY...BECAUSE
IT WILL BE FORCED EAST BY STRONG WESTERN LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS
SAME STRONG FLOW WILL BE IN AN AREA OF VERY DRY AND WARM
AIR...GREATLY ENHANCING THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. THE WARM/DRY/WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FIRST IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...THEN SHIFT EAST AS THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PROGRESS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE DRYLINE
EACH DAY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST AND SPREAD SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OVER THE REGION.

FLOW WILL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY...AND ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK. FOR THIS FORECAST...A MIX OF
12Z GFE MOS AND 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY USED FOR THE
LATER PERIODS. MOST OF THE EARLIER HALF OF THE FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED FROM THE MORNING ISSUANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  90  63  83 /  20  10  30  20
HOBART OK         60  93  58  78 /  10  10  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  95  66  87 /  20  10  30  20
GAGE OK           56  93  52  72 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     67  88  65  81 /  20  10  30  30
DURANT OK         65  88  69  84 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR OKZ004>030-033>041-044>046-050.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-010-
     014>016-021-022-033>037.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-009-010-014>016-021-022-033>037.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR TXZ083>090.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-
     088.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.

&&

22/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-091000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
350 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES THE AREA EAST OF A LINE FROM WOODWARD TO
WEATHERFORD...TO FREDERICK...AND NORTH OF A LINE THAT CONTINUES FROM
FREDERICK TO DUNCAN TO SHAWNEE.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
SOME DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES AND TENDER VEGETATION FROM LARGE HAIL.

MINOR WIND DAMAGE TO TREES...OUTBUILDINGS...AND ROOFTOPS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THAT
COULD BEGIN AROUND 4 PM.

DISCUSSION...
BY MID AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WAS FOCUSED NEAR A
WARM FRONT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND JUST AHEAD OF A DRYLINE IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO PASS FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS UP THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK
HEATING...AND SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION...BUT IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE MORE
NUMEROUS WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...AND SOME WILL LIKELY BE
SEVERE.

MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WIND
SHEAR...WILL ALLOW ANY MATURE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SUPERCELLS...
PRODUCING LARGE AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING HAIL. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WITH CLOUD BASES FAIRLY HIGH ABOVE GROUND...AND
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEING SOMEWHAT WEAK...THE THREAT OF TORNADOES
IS LOW...BUT TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY FOR ANY
MATURE SUPERCELL THAT PERSISTS TO MID OR LATE EVENING...WHEN THE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE.

ALL STORMS SHOULD EITHER MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATE BY
MIDNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY APR 9.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...40 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
GUSTY WIND...LOW HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURE WILL CAUSE VERY HIGH
TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS SATURDAY. ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THAT IF STORMS DO FORM...THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
IN PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY IN PARTS OF CENTRAL... SOUTH
CENTRAL... AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRES WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH OR EXTREME THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY...IN PARTICULAR...IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY
WINDY...VERY WARM...AND VERY DRY.

MAXWELL/BURKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
538 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

OKZ008-082300-
KAY OK-
538 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR KAY COUNTY.

AT 538 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BLACKWELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.
STAY ALERT AND LISTEN FOR WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 3697 9676 3661 9726 3677 9736 3700 9728
      3700 9688

BURKE