Red Flag Warning 14, NWS Norman, OK

302 
WWUS84 KOUN 081945
RFWOUN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

OKZ004-009-010-014>016-021-022-033>037-TXZ083>085-087-088-090345-
/O.NEW.KOUN.FW.A.0017.110409T1800Z-110410T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KOUN.FW.A.0018.110410T1600Z-110411T0300Z/
/O.CON.KOUN.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-110409T0200Z/
HARPER-ELLIS-WOODWARD-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BECKHAM-WASHITA-
HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-KNOX-
BAYLOR-
245 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH...STRONGER ON SUNDAY.

* HUMIDITY...10 TO 20 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURE...UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR 
  BURNING IS DISCOURAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FIRES MAY START EASILY AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO
AVOID THE START AND SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. REPORT SMOKE OR FIRE TO
YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT.

MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS AND INFORMATION.

&&

$$

OKZ005-090345-
/O.NEW.KOUN.FW.A.0017.110409T1800Z-110410T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KOUN.FW.A.0018.110410T1600Z-110411T0300Z/
WOODS-
245 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. 

* WIND...15 TO 25 MPH ON SATURDAY...STRONGER ON SUNDAY.

* HUMIDITY...15 TO 20 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURE...LOWER 90S ON SATURDAY...COOLER ON SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS AND INFORMATION.

&&

$$

OKZ006>008-011>013-017>020-023>030-038>041-044>046-050-TXZ086-089-
090-090345-
/O.NEW.KOUN.FW.A.0018.110410T1600Z-110411T0300Z/
ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-
PAYNE-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-LOVE-WICHITA-ARCHER-CLAY-
245 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. THE ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN EARLIER IN THE
DAY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND LATER IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

* WIND...20 TO 35 MPH...WITH STRONGER GUSTS.

* HUMIDITY...10 TO 20 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURE...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS AND INFORMATION.

&&

$$

CMS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
435 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS FROM TX HAVE MOVED INTO FAR SE PART OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. WHILE THE MODELS EXPAND THE CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA AROUND SUNRISE... VEERED FLOW AROUND 850 MB APPEARS TO
BE SLOWING THE NWWD PROGRESS... ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE RATHER THAN BEING ADVECTED IN.
MEANWHILE... A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED INTO NORTHERN OK LIKELY
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SATELLITE INDICATES SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NUDGING INTO
THE FAR NW. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK NORTH INTO KS BY
AROUND MIDDAY.

HAVE CONVERTED MUCH OF THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OK AND NORTH TEXAS FOR TODAY AS A DRYLINE
IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES AND WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE ON THE MARGINAL
SIDE FOR A WARNING... RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO
UNDERFORECAST WIND SPEEDS WHILE NOT GENERATING SUFFICIENT DRYING
IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH
FORCING WILL BE WEAK... HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE COULD LEAD TO
A STORM OR TWO.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST AGAIN SATURDAY IN THE FAR WEST
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST ONCE AGAIN. A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING
OUT OF THE SW US LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL PUSH THE DRYLINE
THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA. WHILE A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE... THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL LIKELY BE THE
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGH
WINDS AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY WHILE DRY AIR SPREADS IN BEHIND THE DRYLINE. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY TIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. STEEP LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL AID IN
TRANSPORTING DRY... HIGH MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE. A COLD FRONT
SUNDAY EVENING WILL BRING IN GUSTY NW WINDS.

IN THE LONGER TERM... LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY BUT
WILL INCREASE ONCE MORE ON TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  65  90  63 /  20  20  10  30
HOBART OK         90  60  93  58 /  10  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  64  95  66 /  10  10  10  30
GAGE OK           87  56  93  52 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     89  67  88  65 /  20  20  10  30
DURANT OK         87  65  88  69 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004-009-010-014>016-021-022-033>037.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ083>085-087-088.

&&

25/32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
445 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-081700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
445 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD
OF OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER... WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS TODAY... WITH MOISTURE INCREASING EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
FOR A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
A CAP WILL MAKE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DIFFICULT. IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP... INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THEM
TO BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THE CHANCES
FOR STORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY APR 9.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...20 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...40 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRES WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME...ESPECIALLY IN THE DRIER AIR ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS SATURDAY. ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THAT IF STORMS DO FORM... THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
IN PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY IN PARTS OF CENTRAL... SOUTH
CENTRAL... AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRES WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH OR EXTREME THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY...IN PARTICULAR...IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY
WINDY...VERY WARM...AND VERY DRY.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY NOON
TODAY.

MAXWELL