Severe Thunderstorm Warning 502, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT TERMINALS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SW OK INCLUDING THE KPNC... KOKC... KOUN AND KLAW
TERMINALS THROUGH 09Z. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM AREAS... GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
THROUGH 12Z DUE TO NUMEROUS LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011/

UPDATE...
RAISED POPS FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL OK
FOR STORMS THAT HAVE HELD TOGETHER REASONABLY WELL AS THEY MOVED
EAST OUT OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... AND ALSO FOR NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK. MEANWHILE MONITORING THE SE
PROGRESS OF STRONG STORMS IN CENTRAL KS WHICH COULD ALSO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OK LATER TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING NEAR THE
FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM NEAR ADA... TO NEAR WICHITA FALLS AND
QUANAH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IF STORMS DEVELOP... STRONG WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. AN AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE
PANHANDLES IN UPSLOPE FLOW. THESE STORMS COULD MOVE INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. AN MCS DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH
PLAINS OF NE/KS COULD ALSO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS COULD BE AIDED BY A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ALSO BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE FA
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH MAYBE RAIN
WILL HELP HOLD THE TEMPS DOWN A BIT ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY ACROSS A
GOOD PART OF THE FA.... EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN OK/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
WHERE HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW AFTN. WILL ALLOW
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA DROP THIS EVENING
BUT CONTINUE WITH THE ADVISORY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE A COOL OFF IS LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE OVERNIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES.
HOWEVER... ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN AFTN HOURS DUE
TO ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY WHICH COMBINED WITH
RAIN/CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM HEATING UP
TO THE VERY HOT/EXCESSIVE HEAT CONDITIONS WE HAVE SEEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  95  74 100 /  20  20  20  20
HOBART OK         73 100  73 102 /  20  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  78 106  78 105 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           66  93  69  98 /  20  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     69  88  72  97 /  30  20  20  20
DURANT OK         76 104  77 101 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ033>048-050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

32/25/32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH A SMALL NUMBER OF STORMS POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
STRONG WINDS WITH A SMALL NUMBER OF STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE
LEVELS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING COULD ALSO POSE A THREAT
OF IGNITING WILD FIRES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE LESS RAIN.

OTHER STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS MAY ALSO MOVE INTO PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT PRODUCING STRONG WINDS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY AUG 10.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
AFTER REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS TUESDAY AFTERNOON... TEMPERATURES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WARM OVERNIGHT. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
LOW TO MODERATE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND... WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR WEAK FRONTS. ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS COULD ALSO APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THE HOT AIRMASS WILL PERSIST IN MUCH OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

DRY VEGETATION WILL KEEP WILDFIRE POTENTIAL HIGH IN LOCATIONS THAT
DO NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAIN THIS WEEK.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
WEDNESDAY.

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 AM     TSTM WND GST     CASHION                 35.80N 97.68W
08/10/2011  E60 MPH          KINGFISHER         OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S LAKE HEFNER         35.57N 97.61W
08/10/2011                   OKLAHOMA           OK   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS. SMALL TREES AND STREET
            SIGNS BLOWN DOWN.

&&

MA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
108 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0101 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 SE GUTHRIE            35.86N 97.40W
08/10/2011  M62 MPH          LOGAN              OK   ASOS

&&

MA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
112 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

OKZ029-030-100630-
CLEVELAND OK-POTTAWATOMIE OK-
112 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR NORTHEAST CLEVELAND AND
NORTHERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES.

AT 112 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST
CLEVELAND COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3532 9678 3525 9719 3533 9722 3538 9723
      3538 9714 3545 9714 3547 9685 3546 9680
      3535 9678

CJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
115 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

OKZ028>030-100630-
CLEVELAND OK-MCCLAIN OK-POTTAWATOMIE OK-
115 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR SOUTHERN
CLEVELAND...EASTERN MCCLAIN AND SOUTHWEST POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES.

AT 115 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER WAYNE...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3486 9698 3486 9738 3506 9740 3509 9706

CJS

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