Severe Thunderstorm Warning 495, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
921 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

.UPDATE...
RAISED POPS FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL OK
FOR STORMS THAT HAVE HELD TOGETHER REASONABLY WELL AS THEY MOVED
EAST OUT OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... AND ALSO FOR NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK. MEANWHILE MONITORING THE SE
PROGRESS OF STRONG STORMS IN CENTRAL KS WHICH COULD ALSO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OK LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING NEAR THE
FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM NEAR ADA... TO NEAR WICHITA FALLS AND
QUANAH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IF STORMS DEVELOP... STRONG WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. AN AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE
PANHANDLES IN UPSLOPE FLOW. THESE STORMS COULD MOVE INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. AN MCS DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH
PLAINS OF NE/KS COULD ALSO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS COULD BE AIDED BY A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ALSO BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE FA
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH MAYBE RAIN
WILL HELP HOLD THE TEMPS DOWN A BIT ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY ACROSS A
GOOD PART OF THE FA.... EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN OK/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
WHERE HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW AFTN. WILL ALLOW
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA DROP THIS EVENING
BUT CONTINUE WITH THE ADVISORY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE A COOL OFF IS LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE OVERNIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES.
HOWEVER... ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN AFTN HOURS DUE
TO ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY WHICH COMBINED WITH
RAIN/CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM HEATING UP
TO THE VERY HOT/EXCESSIVE HEAT CONDITIONS WE HAVE SEEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74 100  73  95 /  20  20  20  20
HOBART OK         74 104  73 100 /  40  10  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  79 108  78 106 /  10  10  20  10
GAGE OK           70  96  66  93 /  30  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  90  69  88 /  50  50  30  20
DURANT OK         77 103  76 104 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ033>048-050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

32/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH A SMALL NUMBER OF STORMS POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
STRONG WINDS WITH A SMALL NUMBER OF STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE
LEVELS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING COULD ALSO POSE A THREAT
OF IGNITING WILD FIRES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE LESS RAIN.

OTHER STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS MAY ALSO MOVE INTO PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT PRODUCING STRONG WINDS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY AUG 10.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
AFTER REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS TUESDAY AFTERNOON... TEMPERATURES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WARM OVERNIGHT. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
LOW TO MODERATE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND... WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR WEAK FRONTS. ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS COULD ALSO APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THE HOT AIRMASS WILL PERSIST IN MUCH OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

DRY VEGETATION WILL KEEP WILDFIRE POTENTIAL HIGH IN LOCATIONS THAT
DO NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAIN THIS WEEK.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
WEDNESDAY.

CJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1001 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

OKZ021-022-033>036-100345-
GREER OK-HARMON OK-JACKSON OK-KIOWA OK-WASHITA OK-BECKHAM OK-
1001 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BECKHAM...GREER...HARMON...
JACKSON...KIOWA AND WASHITA COUNTIES.

AT 1001 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 5
MILES SOUTH OF CANUTE TO 8 MILES WEST OF MANGUM...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3498 9998 3514 9970 3525 9961 3545 9949
      3546 9863 3487 9864 3486 9883 3475 9883
      3460 9970 3458 9995 3456 9999

84

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1013 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 ENE WILLOW           35.11N 99.35W
08/09/2011  M58 MPH          KIOWA              OK   MESONET

&&

MA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1016 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

OKZ016-100330-
CUSTER OK-
1016 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CUSTER COUNTY.

AT 1017 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST
OF ARAPAHO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3578 9875 3557 9871 3554 9911 3572 9915

30

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

OKZ007-008-012-013-100400-
GARFIELD OK-GRANT OK-KAY OK-NOBLE OK-
1040 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GARFIELD...GRANT...KAY AND
NOBLE COUNTIES.

AT 1040 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 3
MILES SOUTH OF LAMONT TO 4 MILES EAST OF BILLINGS...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3672 9723 3642 9708 3641 9765 3671 9769

30