Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
323 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE NEAR TERM...CONCERNS LIE WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE DRYLINE...AND WITH ELEVATED WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL WEST OF THE DRYLINE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THAT THE FIRST
ECHOES HAVE ALREADY APPEARED EAST OF THE DRYLINE. WITH TIME...MID
LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED AND DEEPENING LOW...ALONG
WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING...SHOULD ENCOURAGE FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THE PRESENT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS CONDUCIVE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL...WITH A TORNADO THREAT DEVELOPING TOWARD EVENING
IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY ENDING
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG POST FRONTAL
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH
AND WIND ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY LEFT UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH AND
TEMPERATURE HIGH ENOUGH IN SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THAT A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY. NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA MAY REMAIN CLOUDY MOST OF THE DAY...WITH SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER ON SATURDAY AS THE INTENSE CLOSED LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THROUGH MONDAY...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND EVENTUALLY THE 80S. STRONG SOUTH WINDS
MAY DEVELOP AGAIN BY AROUND TUESDAY...WITH THE NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ROUGHLY AT MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  47  63  37  73 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         43  67  34  71 /   0  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  74  39  76 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           44  59  27  74 /  20  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     45  58  37  68 /  50  50  10   0
DURANT OK         53  68  41  69 /  50  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ011-012-
     014>019-021>025-027>029-033>041-044>046-050.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ008-013-019-
     020-025-026-028>030-039>041-044>046-050.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>007-009>012-014>018-021>024-027-033>038.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR OKZ014-016-021>023-033>038-044.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ086>090.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ083>085.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

06/03
TAYLOR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT THU APR 14 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-151000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1145 AM CDT THU APR 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CUSHING... TO ADA... TO DURANT. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
INCLUDES THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOCATED EAST OF
A LINE EXTENDING FROM ENID... TO LINDSAY... TO HEALDTON.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 3 PM
THROUGH 10 PM.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGING WINDS TO NEAR 70 MPH... HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A DRYLINE WILL ADVANCE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY
MID AFTERNOON.  A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL INITIALLY SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER... THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING... AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER STORM SYSTEM... SHOULD WEAKEN THE CAP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR AND
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.   THE DRYLINE MAY STALL FOR A
FEW HOURS OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING BEFORE BEING
OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY APR 15.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...70 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE OF GREAT CONCERN TODAY... ESPECIALLY
BEHIND THE DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT. A WIND ADVISORY
IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A
HIGH WIND WATCH AND A WIND ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THESE PRODUCTS FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEXT MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
VERY STRONG WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN HIGH INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
5AM FRIDAY.

CJS/BT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
307 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

OKZ040-041-046-142030-
MURRAY OK-GARVIN OK-CARTER OK-
307 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CARTER...GARVIN AND MURRAY
COUNTIES.

AT 307 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MILO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3459 9718 3436 9696 3416 9737 3430 9752

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
359 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             1 SW DAVIS              34.49N 97.13W
04/14/2011  E1.00 INCH       MURRAY             OK   PUBLIC

&&

NWS