Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
332 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPLICATED SET OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM MORNING STORMS CLIPS THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA...A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES THROUGH
NORTHWEST OK...AND THIS SURFACE TROUGH CONNECTS TO A DRYLINE WHICH
EXTENDS THROUGH WESTERN OK AND INTO NORTHWEST TX. STORMS ARE SLOWLY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM AROUND CLINTON TO AROUND
GRANITE...AND FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE
FAVORED...WITH A TENDENCY FOR STORM INTENSITY TO DECREASE AFTER DARK.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL CAP IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE BASE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SWING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING...PROVIDING
PLENTY OF LARGE SCALE LIFT WHICH SHOULD OVERCOME THE CAP BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

REGARDING FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN OK FORECAST TO BE WEST OF THE DRYLINE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WATCH WILL NOT BE TAKEN FARTHER SOUTHWARD FOR
NOW AS GREEN VEGETATION HAS LIKELY BEGUN GROWING AS A RESULT OF
RECENT RAINS.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY AS A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY A FEW
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...LIKELY REMAINING BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  63  83 /  30  30  40  20
HOBART OK         68  93  57  86 /  20  20  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  95  61  88 /  20  30  20  10
GAGE OK           64  89  54  78 /  40  20  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     73  86  62  77 /  50  30  60  30
DURANT OK         68  85  68  85 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-014-021.

TX...NONE.
&&

02/03
TAYLOR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
453 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-241000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
453 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK IS EAST OF A WOODWARD TO ALTUS LINE...AND NORTH OF
A FREDERICK TO WAURIKA TO HOLDENVILLE LINE. THE SLIGHT RISK IS SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE MODERATE RISK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGE TO HOMES...CARS AND VEGETATION POSSIBLE FROM HAIL  TO THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS OR LARGER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 65 MPH.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
A DRYLINE EXTENDED SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHILE A STATIONARY
FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS
IS VERY UNSTABLE AND IS SUPPORTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LARGE
HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS... AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAY 24.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF A LINE FROM WOODWARD... TO CLINTON AND FREDERICK OKLAHOMA...
TO VERNON AND SEYMOUR TEXAS. SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERACTS WITH A STRENGTHENING DRYLINE PUSHING
INTO OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
TUESDAY.

MAXWELL

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