Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
332 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPLICATED SET OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM MORNING STORMS CLIPS THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA...A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES THROUGH
NORTHWEST OK...AND THIS SURFACE TROUGH CONNECTS TO A DRYLINE WHICH
EXTENDS THROUGH WESTERN OK AND INTO NORTHWEST TX. STORMS ARE SLOWLY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM AROUND CLINTON TO AROUND
GRANITE...AND FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE
FAVORED...WITH A TENDENCY FOR STORM INTENSITY TO DECREASE AFTER DARK.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL CAP IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE BASE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SWING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING...PROVIDING
PLENTY OF LARGE SCALE LIFT WHICH SHOULD OVERCOME THE CAP BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

REGARDING FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN OK FORECAST TO BE WEST OF THE DRYLINE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WATCH WILL NOT BE TAKEN FARTHER SOUTHWARD FOR
NOW AS GREEN VEGETATION HAS LIKELY BEGUN GROWING AS A RESULT OF
RECENT RAINS.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY AS A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY A FEW
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...LIKELY REMAINING BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  63  83 /  30  30  40  20
HOBART OK         68  93  57  86 /  20  20  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  95  61  88 /  20  30  20  10
GAGE OK           64  89  54  78 /  40  20  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     73  86  62  77 /  50  30  60  30
DURANT OK         68  85  68  85 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-014-021.

TX...NONE.
&&

02/03
TAYLOR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-241000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1158 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK IS EAST OF A WOODWARD TO ALTUS LINE...AND NORTH OF
A FREDERICK TO WAURIKA TO HOLDENVILLE LINE. THE SLIGHT RISK IS SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE MODERATE RISK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

IMPACTS...DAMAGE TO HOMES...CARS AND VEGETATION POSSIBLE FROM HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 65 MPH.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
A DRYLINE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL MOVE TO NEAR
THE BORDER OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WHILE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA REMAINS IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONT
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE NORTH... WITH OTHER STORMS POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE VERY UNSTABLE OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS AND WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN BASEBALLS...
DAMAGING WINDS OVER 65 MPH... AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS WILL
LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WITH THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAY 24.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERACTS WITH A
STRENGTHENING DRYLINE PUSHING INTO OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
VERY LARGE HAI...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
TUESDAY.

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