Special Marine Warning 178, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1007 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2011

...LEE NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

...EVERYBODY SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER AWARE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
REGION WILL STILL FEEL SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM...

.PUBLIC UPDATE...AS OF THE 10 PM ADVISORY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS DOWNGRADED LEE TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THEREFORE...THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DROPPED. HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING IMPACTS FROM THE STORM. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY ONLY
INCREASING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WE WILL LIKELY SEE ADDITIONAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OFFSHORE WITH
THE MARINE DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAX AND MOVE TOWARD LAND.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE A TORNADO WATCH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL ALSO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED TO COVER THIS.

AS T.D. LEE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IT WILL
START TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AND ACCELERATE
EAST...MOVING OVER OUR REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AS THIS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TAKES PLACE...WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
INCREASE AS THE BAROCLINIC RESPONSE STRENGTHENS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
WIND FIELD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS OF 40 KTS NOT TOO FAR OFF
THE SFC AND SOME OF THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE GROUND.
THEREFORE...WE WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 45 MPH
ARE EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INLAND AREAS.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ONLY LOOKS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW...DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE LOW PASSING OVER THE INLAND CWA
AND THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO 50 KT. THEREFORE...THE THREAT
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN WITH US...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN AS IS WITH MORE HEAVY RAIN ON THE
WAY TOMORROW. THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ON VERY SATURATED GROUND
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN VERY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS WITH HIGH SURF
AND A LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...EVEN THOUGH LEE IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL STORM...
WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY AS LEE
STRENGTHENS AS A NON TROPICAL LOW. THEREFORE...A GALE WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MARINE WATERS MONDAY EVENING WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING...
BUT LIKELY BELOW GALE LEVELS. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2011/

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE SYSTEM WILL BE FULLY
EXTRA-TROPICAL BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE TO WOBBLE NORTHWARD. IN WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT...A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE CREEPING BACK TO UP TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. /13

AVIATION...PERIODS OF SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE RAIN BANDS.
/13

MARINE...TROPICAL STORM LEE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY
THROUGH LABOR DAY. REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER REGARDING TROPICAL STORM LEE.

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND
     WILCOX.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...AND
     UPPER MOBILE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...AND LOWER MOBILE.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...AND LOWER MOBILE.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
     MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA
     ROSA.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...AND COASTAL
     SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...AND COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...AND
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1032 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2011

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-051200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1032 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE WILL TRANSITION TO A STRENGTHENING NON
TROPICAL LOW ON MONDAY...ACCELERATING EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. WHILE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED...
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL STILL BE FELT. SOME
OF THE THREATS INCLUDE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING...DANGEROUS SURF... LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...AND GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE APPROPRIATE
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS FOR FURTHER DETAILED INFORMATION.

ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. A TORNADO WATCH IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA ALONG WITH A CONTINUATION OF HIGH
SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN STORM SPOTTERS IS REQUESTED IN SUPPORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.