Coastal Flood Warning 1, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
429 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011

...RISK OF TORNADOES TO CONTINUE TODAY...

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)THE REMNANTS OF LEE ARE EXPECTED TO
MEANDER EASTWARD A BIT THIS MORNING BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST OVER SE
MS AND AL. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST....HIGH WIND WARNING OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES...WIND ADVISORY INLAND. STILL EXPECTING BANDS OF
RAIN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN TO CONTINUE TO STREAM
ONSHORE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT WIDESPREAD WORDING...SO HAVE
TRIED TO WORD A MORE PERIODIC FORMAT.

EXTRATROPICAL LEE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH
THE RAIN QUICKLY ON THE DECREASE AS A DRY SLOT WORKS ITS WAY OVER
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA.

THE WET MICROBURST RISK IS HIGH ALONG THE COAST. /16

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BY 7 AM TUESDAY THE REMAINS OF LEE
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA...SOMEWHERE IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. WILL
LIKELY STILL BE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND LIGHT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING IN THE CAMDEN...GREENVILLE EVENING BUT
REMAINDER OF AREA SHOULD BE DONE WITH THE RAIN FOR A WHILE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 80S...A RESULT OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT
RAIN IN THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW THAT WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE A LITTLE ON TUESDAY
NIGHT SINCE WE SHOULD HAVE SOME MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT
WILL HELP HOLD THE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT AS WELL AS THE MOIST SOILS.
WEDNESDAY A SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AGAIN. /11

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL IN THE LOWER 60S MAYBE A FEW
UPPER 50S TO THE NORTH. STARTING TO WARM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
BUT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
DID PUT LOW POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BASED MAINLY ON THE
GFS SHOWING A SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. EURO HAS A VERY WEAK LOW THAT AREA. /11

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS/VISBYS WITH TEMPO DIPS INTO IFR LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...THEN EASE TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF LEE
MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY...THEN TAKE A NORTHEAST TURN. AM
EXPECTING STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS TO CONTINUE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
COASTAL ZONES AND OFFSHORE. THESE WILL EASE TONIGHT AS LEE MOVES OFF
AND WEAKENS.

/16

&&

.MARINE...AS THE REMNANTS OF LEE CONTINUE TO MEANDER EAST...THEN
NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A
CONTINUING OF STRONG TO VERY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH FOR GALES
BY GUST. HAVE CONTINUED GALE WARNING AS A RESULT TODAY. AM EXPECTING
WINDS TO SETTLE A BIT AS THE TRAILING FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND LEE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW...LASTING INTO TUESDAY. OFFSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. NIGHT TIME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE RISE IN THE WINDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED......THEN SETTLING AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

/16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING RAPIDLY
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CURRENTLY BREEZY NEAR THE COAST...
BECOMING STRONGER AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE STRONGER WINDS AND
SPREADING NORTH THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY NOT BE TILL WEDNESDAY
UNTIL WE SEE A SUNNY DRY DAY. /11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      82  66  81  62 /  80  40  20  05
PENSACOLA   83  69  83  67 /  80  60  20  05
DESTIN      84  73  83  67 /  80  60  20  05
EVERGREEN   83  66  79  61 /  80  60  40  05
WAYNESBORO  80  59  79  56 /  90  50  30  05
CAMDEN      82  63  78  59 /  90  70  50  20
CRESTVIEW   83  69  83  63 /  80  60  30  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND
     WILCOX.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...AND
     UPPER MOBILE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...AND LOWER MOBILE.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...AND LOWER MOBILE.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
     MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA
     ROSA.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...AND COASTAL
     SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...AND COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...AND
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

     GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTALWATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MOBILE
     BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TEXT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
708 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-061200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
708 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AS THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM LEE MOVES EAST...THEN NORTHEAST
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE RAIN-BANDS.

ALSO...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE CENTER OF LEE FROM THE WEST...STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS...BOTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN THE FARTHER INLAND
ONE GOES.

WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY OVER THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF MOBILE...BALDWIN...ESCAMBIA...SANTA
ROSA...OKALOOSA AND AREAS AROUND MOBILE BAY...WHERE A HIGH WIND
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE
LIKELY OVER THE INLAND AREAS...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS....OFFSHORE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO OVER 40 KNOTS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT TODAY. THE WINDS WILL EASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 KNOTS UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL AGAIN RISE ABOVE 20 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS FOR
SMALL CRAFT UNTIL THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT CAN BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN STORM SPOTTERS IS REQUESTED IN SUPPORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

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